March Medium/ Long Range

[KAOS]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

100% it is rain and it will verify.

1000%

[RickinBaltimore]

12 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Any snow potential the next two weeks is currently in ICU in very critical condition.

All models fizzling today...12Z EPS and 18Z GEFS.

LOL. LMAO even.

[dallen7908]

Over the last 7 model runs, the percent of EPS members giving College Park 3" of snow/sleet during the next 15 days has bounced between 4% and 12%; it is currently at 8%.  Here are the 24-hour snow/sleet numbers from the latest run - weak signal persists for the 9th - 10th. 

[dallen7908]

 

[clskinsfan]

For those of us to the far NW wouldnt be shocked to see some snow showers out this way over the weekend. Some of the short range stuff is hinting at it. 

[WEATHER53]

16 hours ago, TSG said:

"Pot, meet kettle."

I never temper tantrum off over criticism of models. I just criticize them  and take the heat from you model worshippers. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I never temper tantrum off over criticism of models. I just criticize them  and take the heat from you model worshippers. 

Man did you read any of my reply to ya yesterday? His reason for leaving was completely unrelated to any of that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Some light snow for northern MD on Tuesday on the GFS

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Keep lying

im still here instead of boo hoo sulking away.

Can't we all just get along here guys?!

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Can't we all just get along here guys?!

Once the thread goes to nonsense like this one has that means it's spring. These fokes will fade away over the next couple of weeks. The regulars that enjoy all weather will stick around and we'll complain about thunderstorms missing us until Nov lol

[stormtracker]

Come on yall.  Take it to banter.   Don't make me moderate.  It makes me cranky.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I never temper tantrum off over criticism of models. I just criticize them  and take the heat from you model worshippers. 

I don't think it's about model worshipping...it's just part of the game that we play.  Why do people watch sports knowing they have no control over the outcome?  Because it's not just the outcome we enjoy, it's the process...and this thread is specifically fueled by opportunities that models are attempting to show.  It's really not any deeper than that.

[87storms]

45 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Once the thread goes to nonsense like this one has that means it's spring. These fokes will fade away over the next couple of weeks. The regulars that enjoy all weather will stick around and we'll complain about thunderstorms missing us until Nov lol

March is going to be strong...possible snow window to track before spring is incoming, cherry blossoms, March Madness...I'm getting hyped typing this.

[AdamHLG]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

The regulars that enjoy all weather will stick around and we'll complain about thunderstorms missing us until Nov lol

My house was hit by lightning on June 29 last year.  It caused considerable damage.  Everything now fixed.  I raise this as a caution:  Be careful what you complain about!  It took a split second lightning strike for me to convert from complaining that a line of storms missed my location to now having PTSD that a line of storms is approaching my location.  

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Once the thread goes to nonsense like this one has that means it's spring. These fokes will fade away over the next couple of weeks. The regulars that enjoy all weather will stick around and we'll complain about thunderstorms missing us until Nov lol

Last year's spring was meh as far as severe. I miss thunder. 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

Last year's spring was meh as far as severe. I miss thunder. 

I agree. I'm not a huge fan of destructive winds and hail but I do love a loud thundery summer night with lots of lightning and heavy rain. 

The gfs has some potential heavy rainers next week. Fingers crossed. 

[clskinsfan]

Unless I have another tornado to come report I will be basically gone from the board from April 1st to October. Just have too much to do int he garden to really spend any time here until next winter. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I like tracking the 100 degree days in July.  It was hot as heck last summer, didn’t we have like 3 hundred degree days in a row?

[adelphi_sky]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I like tracking the 100 degree days in July.  It was hot as heck last summer, didn’t we have like 3 hundred degree days in a row?

I recall that three weeks without cloud cover. That was like living on another planet. It was insane. I'm sure construction projects got a lot done during those weeks.

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I like tracking the 100 degree days in July.  It was hot as heck last summer, didn’t we have like 3 hundred degree days in a row?

Man we are hell and gone from winter when we start talking 100 degree days.  This whole thing ended so fast.  Wasn’t ready.  

[bncho]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Man we are hell and gone from winter when we start talking 100 degree days.  This whole thing ended so fast.  Wasn’t ready.  

10 days ago we were tracking a blizzard and an epic pattern

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

10 days ago we were tracking a blizzard and an epic pattern

Should have learned after last winter(and others) to be cautious about modeled 'epic' patterns. They often don't materialize as advertised and end up more transient than persistent. Our best pattern was in January and it largely delivered with persistent cold and snow otg for weeks, but could have been snowier. I wasn't as enthusiastic about the late Feb into mid March potential. I think there is still a chance for a sneaky modest event over the next 10 days though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think there is still a chance for a sneaky modest event over the next 10 days though.

no way. Index patterns are horrible.  We did see somewhat of a La Nina STJ this Winter.  This March warm up also fits the decadal RNA pattern that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2024.. it's still alive and going. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Should have learned after last winter(and others) to be cautious about modeled 'epic' patterns. They often don't materialize as advertised and end up more transient than persistent. Our best pattern was in January and it largely delivered with persistent cold and snow otg for weeks, but could have been snowier. I wasn't as enthusiastic about the late Feb into mid March potential. I think there is still a chance for a sneaky modest event over the next 10 days though.

Yeah I think we're 0 for 2 with advertised EPIC patterns the past two winters now.  

[BristowWx]

The word EPIC needs banned if we are ever to move forward as a weather board…it can only be used during and after a storm.  If warranted.  

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

The word EPIC needs banned if we are ever to move forward as a weather board…it can only be used during and after a storm.  If warranted.  

EPIC idea. I’m down. 

[ravensrule]

5 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Unless I have another tornado to come report I will be basically gone from the board from April 1st to October. Just have too much to do int he garden to really spend any time here until next winter. 

Planting the firm cucumbers on April 1 already?. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Planting the firm cucumbers on April 1 already?. 

Eggplant!!! 

[frd]

If you are bored this is a great post, 16 posts actually. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1895280190730776953

Talks about the cold, possible snow, SSWE, high wind threat later next week and the possible weekend coastal storm next weekend.  

 

[ravensrule]

13 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Eggplant!!! 

In his dreams.