March Medium/ Long Range

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Heisey, et al., Pivotal has updated AI and now has snowfall. Here's the 6z run.

  Lol not even worth showing 

[Ji]

Euro has a snow event but its south of our area of course

[Heisy]

Capes been mentioning how we likely need to time a wave after a wave. The euro just about does that. Need to ignore specific details. Yeah it’s far out, but hopefully we can keep that general idea alive inside 10 days. I saw the 6z Mitch if you compare it to the OP it left the southern energy behind. Not worth worrying at this range, but I still believe this is the last shot


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[Heisy]

It’s starting to show up just a touch on the EPS




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[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It’s starting to show up just a touch on the EPS




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Idv looks good but it’s 12 days out and we been down this road before 

[Heisy]

Idv looks good but it’s 12 days out and we been down this road before 

Yeah I mean who knows it probably won’t happen, but it’s the only thing worth talking about if you want snow around these parts. There’s no other wave that has a chance with the advertised pattern


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[Ji]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah I mean who knows it probably won’t happen, but it’s the only thing worth talking about if you want snow around these parts. There’s no other wave that has a chance with the advertised pattern


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the models have been pretty good with threats/windows....so yes...it probably wont happen but its trackable and at this point thats all i really want. I have a good feeling about this one because nobody wants it/they are punting it south 

[Heisy]

the models have been pretty good with threats/windows....so yes...it probably wont happen but its trackable and at this point thats all i really want. I have a good feeling about this one because nobody wants it/they are punting it south 

If there was any type of blocking to slow that wave down on the 12z euro that would have been an epic run. As is hopefully we can just get break and time the wave properly etc


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[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

If there was any type of blocking to slow that wave down on the 12z euro that would have been an epic run. As is hopefully we can just get break and time the wave properly etc


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We had blocking for the last one sigh 

[Heisy]

the models have been pretty good with threats/windows....so yes...it probably wont happen but its trackable and at this point thats all i really want. I have a good feeling about this one because nobody wants it/they are punting it south 

And it’s either this or talk about spring weather. I just want Mitch to tell me that the 12z Ai is a hit


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[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, AdamHLG said:

Snow or no snow, do we think it's safe to turn back on the outdoor hose bibs?  Hard to imagine pipes will freeze again this winter.  I would like to start spring cleaning and I do not feel like going through the process to shut off the water and drain the veins again.   

Just drain your main vein and you will be fine. 

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nope. 1 inch still a touch to my north. Plus it's 10:1, and temps suggest snow TV at best.

Look closer, I said POINT TWO contour...(lol)

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, Heisy said:

And it’s either this or talk about spring weather. I just want Mitch to tell me that the 12z Ai is a hit


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It’s out already on wxbell. I guess the update makes it come out a hour or two earlier. 
 

It a lot slower ejecting the sw energy so it goes out to sea on the 10th 

[Heisy]

It’s out already on wxbell. I guess the update makes it come out a hour or two earlier. 
 
It a lot slower ejecting the sw energy so it goes out to sea on the 10th 

Ah I see damn, least it wasn’t terribly far off leading up to that.


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[Allsnow]

Just now, Heisy said:

Ah I see damn, least it wasn’t terribly far off leading up to that.


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Still 10-12 days out which hasn’t been great for the AI. We definitely would want it to show a hit inside 7-8 days 

[adelphi_sky]

My wishes for snow have now turned to wishes for sunny and mild so that my son and I can have more outdoor tennis practice. Stick a fork in this winter. It's well done. 

[mitchnick]

Heisey, I haven't looked at them, but the AI has ensembles. Lousy graphics, but this is the link to them fwiw.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"%2C"Experimental%3A AIFS Ensemble forecast"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]}

[frd]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Idv looks good but it’s 12 days out and we been down this road before 

EPS and ensembles had  5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada.

Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return.     

[WEATHER53]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

EPS and ensembles had  5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada.

Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return.     

Until and unless people stop buying subscriptions to 5+ day non functioning models then nothing changes.  Decreased revenue will prompt action. 

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Until and unless people stop buying subscriptions to 5+ day non functioning models then nothing changes.  Decreased revenue will prompt action. 

I don’t think the folks who code the models are profiting from sales to WxBell, Pivotal, etc. 99.999% sure they are government funded. Someone can prove me wrong tho 

[Allsnow]

58 minutes ago, frd said:

EPS and ensembles had  5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada.

Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return.     

Agreed. It was a huge fail by the eps 

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. It was a huge fail by the eps 

And when you consider that all the ensemble 50% probabilities were as impressive as they were in addition to the means, it's an absolute head shaker, if not head against wall pounder!