Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. April severe time period showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. A southeast ridge with the proper strength can funnel Gulf moisture our way. We can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 22 Author Share Posted March 22 WB 18Z EURO AI.... last chance storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 WB 18Z EURO AI.... last chance storm...Non-accumulating, cosmetic snows are for November and early Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Gfs gives Short Pump 15" of April snow. The gfs has become unusable garbage lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Let’s all agree that we want the gfs to be wrong for next weekend. Go euro go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 10 minutes ago, dailylurker said: So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol Spring is the worst with it. I’m ready to get to “highs in the upper 80s with a chance of afternoon storms, some may be strong to severe” on repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol GFS has been pretty bad in the LR recently. It likes cold and snow too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south. They simply disagree on the location of the boundary. That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other. And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 3 hours ago, high risk said: I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south. They simply disagree on the location of the boundary. That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other. And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles. It's just MD in spring lol. Hopefully the gfs has the right idea about active weather. A couple of cold rainers would be fine. I'd love an all day soaker that drops 2"+ area wide. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Re long range models...just a reminder that the majority of humans don't look at the 7-10+ day GFS and Euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 19 minutes ago, 87storms said: Re long range models...just a reminder that the majority of humans don't look at the GFS and Euro lol. Fixed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Fixed. That too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 5 hours ago, yoda said: 12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range Wonder if we bake this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if we bake this summer. Modeling seems to have the core of the heat in the center of the country with a pretty bad drought developing there. Also of note, our area is painted as having normal rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 49 minutes ago, Interstate said: Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. I have a tee time mid-afternoon Saturday. Damn near a 40 degree difference in the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, Interstate said: Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front gradually lifting northward across the area Thursday night through Friday night should result in an overall milder trend, though passing low pressure may produce some rain, especially across northern parts of the region and especially Friday night. The warm advection should result in lows mostly above freezing Thursday night, highs approaching or passing 60 in much of the area Friday, and lows remaining in the much milder 40s to low 50s Friday night. This front then starts to stall to our northeast, and passing waves of low pressure along it may cause oscillations. The end result is that while overall, the weekend looks mild, a northeast to southwest temperature gradient is expected, with areas closer to New York City more likely to struggle to reach 60 both days, while the central Delmarva could easily be well into the 70s. Chances of rain will likewise be higher across the north, with much less chance down in the Delmarva. Lows Saturday night will also be mild, likely 40s north and 50s south. Stronger frontal system then likely crosses the region Sunday night into Monday, with better shower coverage region-wide, but also warmth becoming more widespread a southerly winds increase just before frontal passage. This likely pushes lows into the 50s for much of the area Sunday night with most of the region reaching the 60s Monday, with 70s more likely in the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I have a tee time mid-afternoon Saturday. Damn near a 40 degree difference in the models. Get your wedge ready 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 56 minutes ago, frd said: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front gradually lifting northward across the area Thursday night through Friday night should result in an overall milder trend, though passing low pressure may produce some rain, especially across northern parts of the region and especially Friday night. The warm advection should result in lows mostly above freezing Thursday night, highs approaching or passing 60 in much of the area Friday, and lows remaining in the much milder 40s to low 50s Friday night. This front then starts to stall to our northeast, and passing waves of low pressure along it may cause oscillations. The end result is that while overall, the weekend looks mild, a northeast to southwest temperature gradient is expected, with areas closer to New York City more likely to struggle to reach 60 both days, while the central Delmarva could easily be well into the 70s. Chances of rain will likewise be higher across the north, with much less chance down in the Delmarva. Lows Saturday night will also be mild, likely 40s north and 50s south. Stronger frontal system then likely crosses the region Sunday night into Monday, with better shower coverage region-wide, but also warmth becoming more widespread a southerly winds increase just before frontal passage. This likely pushes lows into the 50s for much of the area Sunday night with most of the region reaching the 60s Monday, with 70s more likely in the Delmarva. NWS is giving the GFS nothing then in essence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Get your wedge ready Classic backdoor cold front setup. I'll be in Philly this weekend, so I'm ready for 40 degrees and foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 43 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: NWS is giving the GFS nothing then in essence. Yes, but not loving the lack of sunshine now for Fri., Sat and Sunday. What was sunny is now cloudy. I rather have 50 and sunny, versus cloudy and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, RickinBaltimore said: NWS is giving the GFS nothing then in essence. Smart move. CMC concurs with Euro. GEFS is also in the warmer camp for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Bet on wedgies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 For the 777th post, I'll say it's going to be 77* on April 7th. https://ibb.co/pjWYBwg9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 hours ago, Interstate said: Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. OK, that SUCKS to have that wide a take on the temps Saturday (as I try and set weekend plans for a second date) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 GFS has caved to the hot weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now