stormtracker Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 23 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: This might come as a surprise to us weather weenies as we want 14 day forecasts to be quite accurate but April 1st snow storms are very rare. Thus, there are two competing forces here, and since the rareness of a 12” snowfall in late March / early April is greater than the accuracy of a 13-day forecast, there is still good chance that we may not get that 12” snow fall a fortnight hence. So you’re saying the chances of late March snow are almost nil? Damn, this is something we hadn’t anticipated. Storm cancel? 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, jewell2188 said: Anyone wishing for snow at this point, you have to seriously re-evaluate your life hahahahaha Reevaluating… Yup, think my life priorities are properly tuned! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Lolol yall just want to be hurt don’t you. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 An April snowstorm to our south would be right on par with this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 35 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: An April snowstorm to our south would be right on par with this past winter. I believe something like this happened before in the not too distant past. Maybe just snow and not a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 21 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs smoked the same funky stuff Man it’s depressing to see shit like this over and over Some day when people stop paying money to be lied to things might change. If 2025-26 follows course expect a 20% accuracy confirmation on east coast snow storm predictions Once Again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Wait. We lost our April MECS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 59 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Man it’s depressing to see shit like this over and over Some day when people stop paying money to be lied to things might change. If 2025-26 follows course expect a 20% accuracy confirmation on east coast snow storm predictions Once Again You really don't understand how NWP works, and how to utilize model guidance as a tool for forecasting. Or maybe you do and just have an agenda. Probably the latter. Either way these posts are super fucking boring and dumb. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Man it’s depressing to see shit like this over and over Some day when people stop paying money to be lied to things might change. If 2025-26 follows course expect a 20% accuracy confirmation on east coast snow storm predictions Once Again we're just joking around we know it's not going to snow in april so when guidance shows some whacky shit then we have fun with it it's nothin serious 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 15 minutes ago, bncho said: we're just joking around we know it's not going to snow in april so when guidance shows some whacky shit then we have fun with it it's nothin serious lol good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Congrats Short Pump 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Looks like a strong signal for an early April snowstorm on the 18z GEFS. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 GEFS is smokin as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: GEFS is smokin as well Yeah looks pretty interesting for Albany. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Fast forward to early April and it’s 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 1 hour ago, konksw said: Fast forward to early April and it’s 80. Good, it can torch all it wants in April. It's winter torches I have a problem with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:32 AM Maybe frequent episodes of cold frontal passages for the next 4 to 12 weeks. Looks like the "dripping" from large #polarvortex disruption will begin last week of March and continue for multiple weeks afterwards. First drip is predicted to have low impact but we need the caboose to get from upper stratosphere to surface for big impacts, probably in July. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 01:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:06 PM Just like snowfall forecasts, rainfall potential is dropping in the long-range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:15 PM 18 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Man it’s depressing to see shit like this over and over Some day when people stop paying money to be lied to things might change. If 2025-26 follows course expect a 20% accuracy confirmation on east coast snow storm predictions Once Again We had 2 busts in February which were legitimate modelling errors. This though, doesn't seem to me to be a good example. If you know how to use the tool this is fine. That blizzard solution is NOT the majority solution across guidance. It's a fluke that it showed up for a couple runs on the Op GFS and one run of the Op Euro. But across the full spread of guidance, operationals and ensembles, it was a 10% minority solution at best! But 10% is not 0. It is a pretty extreme pattern. There is a non zero chance some fluke snow does happen. Its most definitely a long shot and not likely to happen...but given its not zero chance...that solution will show up on an odd run of the models here or there. And if all someone does is take that one run as if its a forecast yea thats BAD. But if you look at the guidance holistically every day, you see that is NOT the most likely outcome and was just a fluke run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Thursday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:53 PM 17 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Congrats Short Pump We are soooo back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Thursday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:58 PM 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We are soooo back. Old news check out 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:52 PM 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Old news check out 12z Looks perfect to me. I’ll head up to ski this for a few days then come home in time for this 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Thursday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:38 PM In other words. Enjoy your 45-50 degree raw and rainy next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:11 PM On 2/23/2025 at 5:45 PM, NorthArlington101 said: We’ll get a trackable window from the 8th-20th. And probably a troll early April phantom Called it. 3/10 was our trackable window. And now we're dealing with our April Fools phantom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:18 PM 6 minutes ago, bncho said: Called it. 3/10 was our trackable window. And now we're dealing with our April Fools phantom. The April phantom is an easy call. A May phantom would be a more fun call… that was a couple years ago. Might’ve almost got to NAM range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 01:33 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:33 AM WB 18Z GEFS... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 01:45 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:45 AM 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS... p11 looks spicy the GEFS is trying to turn our thing from a phantom to an "undead" zombie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:34 PM Losing digital snow in late March makes me happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:45 PM DOGE must've known. We don't need any of that NOAA overhead apparently. Hopefully the new AI will forecast at least 60" storms for us perennially at d10. That would be cool. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-breakthrough-offers-weather-forecast-161544914.html Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Friday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:36 PM 54 minutes ago, IronTy said: DOGE must've known. We don't need any of that NOAA overhead apparently. Hopefully the new AI will forecast at least 60" storms for us perennially at d10. That would be cool. https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-breakthrough-offers-weather-forecast-161544914.html Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”. Not trying to be mean here but that article is trash. "10 times better?" Over what time scale? what variables? wtf does better even mean in this context? nothing is explained. That's an AI hype piece masked as a "the revolution is here!" feel good story Their "revolutionary" model has slightly lower RMSE values when compared to the GFS in most areas. It also runs at a 1.5 degree (~110 miles) horizontal resolution compared to the GFS's 0.25 (17.4 miles) or the ECMWF HRES's 0.1 (5.5 miles). Vertically it's also nothing close. The GFS divides the surface to the mesopause into 127 layers. The ECMWF has 137 layers. This AI model has 5. It's providing orders of magnitude less information about the atmosphere, and it's only slightly more accurate at the points it does forecast. Actual Study: https://cdn.roxhillmedia.com/production/email/attachment/1700001_1710000/865aa96b274c128474186cf6f77b2556fe008b92.pdf 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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