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March Medium/ Long Range


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2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Close to some flurries here!

gfs_conus_063_sim_radar_comp.gif
 

Hopefully this cooler trend associated with +PNA carries into next Winter. 

Lastest modeling and analogs point to a summer here where excessive heat is unlikely,  and also the higher chance for rainfall versus drought. 

The core of the heat and drought will develop next month and extend deep into the summer around the Northern Plains and Western US. 

 

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Surprised no one mentioned the 18z GFS snows on us like 6 different times. It probably won't happen but the Stratosphere warming occurring now is going to create some more neutral conditions toward the end of the month to possibly keep us cooler. 

Yea honestly for 14-15 days out the progression was sort of similar to the euro.

I’m all in let’s go


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4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Close to some flurries here!

gfs_conus_063_sim_radar_comp.gif
 

Hopefully this cooler trend associated with +PNA carries into next Winter. 

Tomorrow may be the warmest day until the middle of April here.   

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6 hours ago, frd said:

Lastest modeling and analogs point to a summer here where excessive heat is unlikely,  and also the higher chance for rainfall versus drought. 

The core of the heat and drought will develop next month and extend deep into the summer around the Northern Plains and Western US. 

 

I can definitely see the strongest ridge being over the west coast this Summer. 

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This might come as a surprise to us weather weenies as we want 14 day forecasts to be quite accurate but April 1st snow storms are very rare.  Thus, there are two competing forces here, and since the rareness of a 12” snowfall in late March / early April is greater than the accuracy of a 13-day forecast, there is still good chance that we may not get that 12” snow fall a fortnight hence.  

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