March Medium/ Long Range

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

They apply.  To us specifically. After clocks go forward, we’re on a fast track to over. Accept it now and save yourself heartache man.  The time between Posts in this threads grown longer and longer.  Read the room.  I know folks hate to hear it, but it’s over.  We did about as well as we did.   I’m down to checking this forum twice per day.  That’s how i know it’s over.  Sooner you come to terms with it, the better it feels, trust me. 

We’ll get a trackable window from the 8th-20th. And probably a troll early April phantom

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS... two week and counting....

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS... two week and counting....

Can we not post 336 hour snow maps from a random op run lol. Zero value.

Provide some insight for the depicted setup and why its plausible that it could actually snow.

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS... two week and counting....

Yeah, this is def helping your case. Hour 336.  When models couldn’t even get 144 hours right. 

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Can we not post 336 hour snow maps from a random op run lol. Zero value.

Provide some insight for the depicted setup and why it's plausible that it could actually snow.

You do it, don't like it don't read it, H5 crap from two weeks out is no more reliable.

[Weather Will]

Last hurrah, don't be so bitter, have a little fun with it...good grief!

[Weather Will]

I hope everyone realizes it is going to do what it is going to do regardless of the maps posted.

[frd]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Can we not post 336 hour snow maps from a random op run lol. Zero value.

Provide some insight for the depicted setup and why its plausible that it could actually snow.

Because its simply really, JB said so.   

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope everyone realizes it is going to do what it is going to do regardless of the maps posted.

All those whacko Control and Euro snow models are worth zip, in the last 8 years they only provide false hope, an injection of hopium, coke, LSD to the weather junkie, aka weenie. 

My weenie needs some visnowgra baby.  give me, please...... 

    

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

You do it, don't like it don't read it, H5 crap from two weeks out is no more reliable.

It most certainly is on an ensemble run. Otoh, snow maps past day 10 on an op run are completely useless.

[Ji]

We’re in phase 1 of mjo right?

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

We’re in phase 1 of mjo right?

I beleive so. But. It's gonna be quite warm for the next week so phase 1 isn't meaning a whole lot lol

[87storms]

I could see it snowing again. There’s been a slide of transient cold highs dropping in from Canada all winter. Time that with the jet stream lifting north in March and you gotta think another tracking opp is likely…unless it isn’t.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

The h5 pattern matters, even more so in March. A +AO/+NAO in early Spring is not conducive to getting snow at our latitude.

GAwx posted his research of what the main Driver's State's were for Knoxville Tenn. March and April Snowstorms . Surprising Results ! Here they are : 

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971:

4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO

3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO

3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3

3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3

4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2

4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3

3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2

3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2

 

 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies?

-Not ENSO as it was all over the board.

-PNA neutral to +

-EPO neutral to -  

-NAO neutral to +….interesting

-AO all over the board

-MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

 That's from GAWX. Excellent research by him !