March Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

I don't know if it is going to snow next week, just observing the GFS is showing more run to run consistency today than the AI.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don't know if it is going to snow next week, just observing the GFS is showing more run to run consistency today than the AI.

The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet?

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet?

I thought it was marked operational now. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I thought it was marked operational now. 

IDK, maybe. Never see it mentioned in the AFDs. Probably an indication that it isn't given much consideration, yet.

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet?

WB 12Z UKMET was much further North of EURO at 12Z...

[Weather Will]

Does anyone have the 18Z UKMET?

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z UKMET was much further North of EURO at 12Z...

Looks a little closer to the Euro than the GFS to me given the flow. And honestly, which model would you trust more? EURO or UKMET?

[Chris78]

Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. 

The euro is only 600 miles souther lol

I'd love for the Gfs to be right. It dumps double digits on my yard but no way its correct.

[Weather Will]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks a little closer to the Euro than the GFS to me given the flow. And honestly, which model would you trust more? EURO or UKMET?

I get it, but the EURO was the last to cave with the last storm at about Day 5, maybe it will fold again.

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. 

    The models all ingest the same weather balloon data.  

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. 

The euro is only 600 miles souther lol

 

Very interesting, just read about this.  Wonder what the EURO uses to get data for western Alaska.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Does anyone have the 18Z UKMET?

Only goes out 66hrs, but the ensembles go out to 198hrs. It's in the process of updating now.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I get it, but the EURO was the last to cave with the last storm at about Day 5, maybe it will fold again.

LOL I don't think I would use the last storm(fail) as an example. Objectively, they all had it wrong in unison bigtime, then backed off. I'm not going to give much credit to the one that was first to figure it out, if there was one. That was a model debacle across the board.

[87storms]

Just now, CAPE said:

LOL I don't think I would use the last storm(fail) as an example. Objectively, they all had it wrong in unison bigtime, then backed off. I'm not going to give much credit to the one that was first, if there was one. That was a model debacle across the board.

I really have a hard time calling that last storm a fail on the level that some here imply.  Pretty sure the digital snow peaked on Saturday and just about every model run after that clearly hinted that the storm could slide south.  The upper level setup was always suspect and, at the end of the day, the storm took the path of least resistance with simply too much of a cold air push.

[87storms]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. 

The euro is only 600 miles souther lol

I'd love for the Gfs to be right. It dumps double digits on my yard but no way its correct.

GFS solution looks kinda weird...the system seems too amped up given the weak high pressure to the north.

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Does anyone have the 18Z UKMET?

18z Ukmet ensembles.  I guess you can say there was an improvement over the 12z run (on top).

[jewell2188]

I think the overall feeling is fu** the snow and cold. Bring on spring!!!!

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product.

I think it isn’t weight, but more like an outlier skews the mean phenomenon.

eta: but I know you follow it more closely than I do this time of year and I may just be wrong lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

NAM is running

lol -PNA pattern in the Pacific is no good for this one

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I really have a hard time calling that last storm a fail on the level that some here imply.  Pretty sure the digital snow peaked on Saturday and just about every model run after that clearly hinted that the storm could slide south.  The upper level setup was always suspect and, at the end of the day, the storm took the path of least resistance with simply too much of a cold air push.

I agree. That was a damn cold airmass and the thermal boundary was modeled to be suppressed along/ just off the SE coast. The complicated part was the TPV lobe and the possibility of enough interaction to lift the developing low northward. There was a general lean across the ens runs of favoring areas SE of our region for significant snow overall, despite op runs depicting big snows further north with the possible phase. The EPS was probably the biggest offender initially depicting a large area of 6-8" on the snow mean across our area for a few runs in support of the big snows advertised on the Euro Op, before trending SE. None of the models came close to nailing the final outcome until closer to game time though. It was more of a gradual shift over multiple runs.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I thought it was marked operational now. 

Yes, the Euro AI is now operational.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I agree. That was a damn cold airmass and the thermal boundary was modeled to be suppressed along/ just off the SE coast. The complicated part was the TPV lobe and the possibility of enough interaction to lift the developing low northward. There was a general lean across the ens runs of favoring areas SE of our region for significant snow overall, despite op runs depicting big snows further north with the possible phase. The EPS was probably the biggest offender initially depicting a large area of 6-8" on the snow mean across our area for a few runs in support of the big snows advertised on the Euro Op, before trending SE. None of the models came close to nailing the final outcome until closer to game time though. It was more of a gradual shift over multiple runs.

Most model busts happen in a Nina.  This winter was notorious for rather dynamic TPV movements and non-movements.  

[Amped]

At least this one we know is going to miss cause it's only has support from one model and the pattern is horse poo.

[stormtracker]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

We have a poster named stormtracker who’s not even tracking storms. What the heck!

Because i know the heartbreak 

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Because i know the heartbreak 

At least you’re looking 

[Chris78]

Gfs cave

Shocking

[Solution Man]

It will change a million times, but incoming, she gone

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Solution Man said:

It will change a million times, but incoming 

Congrats Norfolk

[Solution Man]

Can’t make this shit up

[Ji]

The Ridge was not as sharp so the NS couldnt dig as it had before---still worth watching...but this time a much later phase. Why couldnt it go from nailing NW of us....to us....before going to SE. Why does it just jump from SE back to NW and back to Se without giving us one flush hit?