Baltimorewx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Well for what it’s worth the 18z Euro AI was a step towards a storm…just a lot slower in developing and still too far south though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago LOL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Odds favor 18z Gfs won't look like 12z. No consistency when it comes to snow "threats" all winter. jinxed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: LOL Does it do anything a little later in the run? The EURO AI didn’t really develop a surface low until 150-156. Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: LOL In light of the difference in placement of the Great Lakes slp, I would have thought the Euro would be further north with the southern system. Heck of a lot more space with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago LOLLOL this 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Baltimorewx said: Does it do anything a little later in the run? The EURO AI didn’t really develop a surface low until 150-156. Just curious 18z run ends at 144hrs, so you'll have to wait for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: LOL this The JMA/GFS combo. We’re in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Does it do anything a little later in the run? The EURO AI didn’t really develop a surface low until 150-156. Just curious 18z only goes out to 144. Based on the look of the flow in the upper levels, I would guess no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, mitchnick said: 18z run ends at 144hrs, so you'll have to wait for 0z. Ah yeah. Damn. I forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 11 hours ago, bncho said: thinking this March 10 thingy will sneak up on us the trend this winter has been: whenever we're enthusiastic about something it never comes to fruition (think Feb 20 - mar 15 pattern or psu's ku) but whenever we're unenthusiastic about something it comes to fruition (think the cold January pattern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago The last time I saw the jma and gfs agree on a major storm when no one else saw it was 2006 and they scored a coupe 2 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Ji said: The last time I saw the jma and gfs agree on a major storm when no one else saw it was 2006 and they scored a coupe gotta get used to positive ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Ji said: The last time I saw the jma and gfs agree on a major storm when no one else saw it was 2006 and they scored a coupe A 1 in a 19 year event. At least the odds are in our favor for once. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago WB 21Z NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Just now, Ji said: The last time I saw the jma and gfs agree on a major storm when no one else saw it was 2006 and they scored a coupe Look I am rooting for the northern tier. I honestly don't care if I get more snow. Kinda done with it honestly. Above avg is way more than I expected going in, and 20+ days with snow otg in Jan. Unheard of these days. A- winter here. That said, the GFS is literally all alone, JMA aside lol. It can't event get the UKmet on its side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z NBM Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Ji said: The last time I saw the jma and gfs agree on a major storm when no one else saw it was 2006 and they scored a coupe I looked at qpf on the JMA and in the DCA/BWI area the scale increased by 2 levels (.5") and 1 level (.25") imby. Heaviest precip on the JMA is in central VA and south and they're likely rain or mix at best. Iow, JMA ain't close to what the Gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 6 hour Gefs qpf from 18z at 144hrs on top and Eps on the bottom. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 18Z AI is much different for early next week...not a snow storm but EURO is not locked into anything yet and it is slower as someone mentioned. Big run to run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z AI is much different for early next week...not a snow storm but EURO is not locked into anything yet and it is slower as someone mentioned. Big run to run changes. What do the precip maps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What do the precip maps look like? Well SE (OBX/Norfolk) but much much different then 12z and clearly a big nod the way of the GFS. Now if they can meet in the middle… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What do the precip maps look like? WB 18Z AI compared to 12Z... significant shift NW and stronger low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: In light of the difference in placement of the Great Lakes slp, I would have thought the Euro would be further north with the southern system. Heck of a lot more space with the Euro. Look at the upper levels. Broader ridge, NW flow. More confluence. Gets crushed, shunted off the coast well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Well SE (OBX/Norfolk) but much much different then 12z and clearly a big nod the way of the GFS. Now if they can meet in the middle… Yeah, but it's just a rainstorm with no cold air anywhere close to the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z AI compared to 12Z It's also 30-36 hours later than the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yeah, but it's just a rainstorm with no cold air anywhere close to the MA. Dynamic cooling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago It's gonna snow in Virginia Beach again probably 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago WB 18Z AI has marginally cold air around for about 12 hours early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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