March Medium/ Long Range

[WEATHER53]

51 minutes ago, yoda said:

  (from this afternoon AFD from LWX for the weekend)

This coming weekend could get rather interesting across the area.
Model guidance for a while now has hinted at a powerful storm system
impacting some portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This has not gone away,
and some of the deterministic guidance has painted a really
interesting picture over our region. However, its important not to
get to caught up in individual model runs at this juncture, as they
will waffle around between different scenarios many times between
now and then. There are several upper-level features that look to
interact to make this system happen, which is often very poorly
modeled at this time range. The key is, all hazards look to be in
play with this system, it is just a matter of where. Our region
could see anything from heavy rain, to perhaps even some areas
seeing heavy snow, or this system could just straight up miss the
area entirely. The uncertainty is just far too high at this point,
and hopefully there will be a bit more consistency as these features
work their way into the CONUS over the coming days. Additionally, we
can`t ignore the fact that this is March we are talking about, and
there will assuredly be questions regarding the thermodynamic
environment and timing of precipitation.

That all being said, have added some snow into the forecast for
Saturday night into Sunday, but kept slight chance POPs at the
moment, given the uncertainty. Continue to check the forecast for
the latest updates each day, but next weekend is definitely
something to watch.

 

Man there are a lot of qualifying but buts in that 

[adelphi_sky]

16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Man there are a lot of qualifying but buts in that 

Very big buts. 

[dailylurker]

54 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Thanks LWX, critical analysis.  

Budget cuts. I guess I'll just watch the sky and hope for rain lol

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Budget cuts. I guess I'll just watch the sky and hope for rain lol

You also gotta taste the dirt. A la Twister. 

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Budget cuts. I guess I'll just watch the sky and hope for rain lol

Not sure if I should play it off as "see what's happening because budget cuts!!" or else "if this is what I'm currently paying for then just cut it all to the bone".   I'll just look at my home weather station's "12hr weather forecast" function and stick with that at this point.  

[Ji]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I'll be in the WV mountains late march. Maybe a late season snow in the apps is in play...

hopefully its Davis, WV or your pretty much screwed

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Not sure if I should play it off as "see what's happening because budget cuts!!" or else "if this is what I'm currently paying for then just cut it all to the bone".   I'll just look at my home weather station's "12hr weather forecast" function and stick with that at this point.  

Mods need to cut this crap.

[Ji]

gfs looks like its going to phase again

[Interstate]

Where was this GFS storm a month ago?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

gfs looks like its going to phase again

Looking for the seasonal trend to take effect 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS still holding on wound up weekend storm.

[Ji]

there are no rules in March right?

[Ji]

We have a poster named stormtracker who’s not even tracking storms. What the heck!

[Weather Will]

Until EURO shows any hint of a full phase for the weekend, I just find this amusing..... the 12Z EPS has 4% chance or 2 members out of 50 showing the GFS scenario.

[Scraff]

Been rooting for the north shift all winter. Now I have to root the south shift!? Fine. One last ditch effort for all the taxable tea in China. Let’s do this! 

[Ji]

Are people really blaming the layoffs for the gfs performance?

[adelphi_sky]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Been rooting for the north shift all winter. Now I have to root the south shift!? Fine. One last ditch effort for all the taxable tea in China. Let’s do this! 

It will come south. And South Carolina will get a nice cold snow to put out the fires. 

[Scraff]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

It will come south. And South Carolina will get a nice cold snow to put out the fires. 

Actually. I love Myrtle Beach, so this would be ok too. 

[clskinsfan]

Storms will be more amped in March anyways. I was ignoring this as BS. But now of course I am sucked back in. 

[BristowWx]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

gfs looks like its going to phase again

Are you enthused?  Really?  I could get on board if you are 

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not really in the mood but it’s likely going to be cold and miserable from March 15-April 1 so we might as well root for a fluke snow event. Even if it’s unlikely and probably just ends up some messy event that lets us down. 

Aren't you going to be enjoying the frozen tundra of Northern Vermont during some of that time? 

[adelphi_sky]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Are you enthused?  Really?  I could get on board if you are 

I'm waiting on the F-Word. 

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm waiting on the F-Word. 

Me too, perhaps tomorrow or later tonight. I’ll be here

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS lol

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS lol

[CAPE]

How far out can the NAM be extrapolated? GFS needs some help man.

 

 

[Ji]

How far out can the NAM be extrapolated? GFS needs some help man.
 
 

It’s seeing things we can’t see

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

It’s seeing things we can’t see

It’s a cry for help 

[CAPE]

 American global model awful lonely with this one. Wonder why?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

It’s seeing things we can’t see

The Twilight Zone?