March Medium/ Long Range

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

if that comes 50 miles south then the N/W crew will get the storm they deserve

Even though I'd miss the goods because that would be TOO north (gotta love Baltimore city being on that kind of line!) I'd be happy for them because it's been ridiculous and weird that elevation hasn't mattered the last few years, lol

[Baltimorewx]

Seems like the GFS wants to over-phase things this winter…Canadian and Euro aren’t even close to this kind of solution. I have to root against it this time. Have a cruise out of Cape Liberty Sunday. If the GFS is near close to right, the drive up would be challenging and sailing down the coast Sunday night would be rocky as hell. 

[Fozz]

I’ll take what the GFS is showing, but only if it is not even 1 inch further north.

It’s wild how much more amped it is than 2 runs ago. Of course I don’t remotely believe it. But we seem to have a chance.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’ll take what the GFS is showing, but only if it is not even 1 inch further north.

It’s wild how much more amped it is than 2 runs ago. Of course I don’t remotely believe it. But we seem to have a chance.

Something that amplified wouldn't quite fit the trend of this winter...now that atmospheric memory is apparently real thing 

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’ll take what the GFS is showing, but only if it is not even 1 inch further north.

It’s wild how much more amped it is than 2 runs ago. Of course I don’t remotely believe it. But we seem to have a chance.

im fully on board.

[Alfoman]

Hilarious trend on the last three GFS runs - amplified, more ridging out west, phase with the NS in decent spot. Feel like we've seen the GFS do this around the 120-180 hr range just to slowly flatten/shear the energy over time as we get closer to the event. Rinse and repeat. 

CMC with a very different view of things - let's see if the Euro budges at all

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Natural Gas up 8% today.. maybe that storm has a chance. It is a southern jet piece running into a trough. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS....

[Ji]

I counted 17 threatening solutions out of 30. what i was looking for was storms that were too amplified(too north) or a bit too far south or hit us directly.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO 8 am Sunday compared to GFS (Day 6)

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO 8 am Sunday compared to GFS

Hmm. I wonder which one is correct? Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Hmm. I wonder which one is correct? Lol

Well the GFS was right last time, lol

[Weather Will]

We all know the model showing no snow is always Correct... but seriously at 6 days out the GFS is going to score a coup or have egg on its face.

[Heisy]

HM on our discord doesn’t think we’re down for the year.

Check out 12z euro




.

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well the GFS was right last time, lol

it dosent matter who the players are.....always go with the least snowiest model

[Ji]

Just now, Heisy said:

HM on our discord doesn’t think we’re down for the year.

Check out 12z euro




.

so weve already moved past this weekend to the 15th?

[Heisy]

so weve already moved past this weekend to the 15th?

I do whatever I can to keep the daffodils at bay


.

[Chris78]

Expensive eggs on its face

[mitchnick]

Everything says a legit SSW event starting 3/11. Chilly end of March into April as a result is a good bet and just maybe an anomalous late season snow somewhere in the east.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Everything says a legit SSW event starting 3/11. Chilly end of March into April as a result is a good bet and just maybe an anomalous late season snow somewhere in the east.

How accurate are SSW forecasts? Feels like we get a lot of crying wolf on those, and then when it's gets to the day it's supposed to start everything backs off.

[Heisy]

Everything says a legit SSW event starting 3/11. Chilly end of March into April as a result is a good bet and just maybe an anomalous late season snow somewhere in the east.

Yea HM has been all over it. Seeing signs on the models now with blocking forming. Maybe too late but you never know


.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

so weve already moved past this weekend to the 15th?

I’m not really in the mood but it’s likely going to be cold and miserable from March 15-April 1 so we might as well root for a fluke snow event. Even if it’s unlikely and probably just ends up some messy event that lets us down. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not really in the mood but it’s likely going to be cold and miserable from March 15-April 1 so we might as well root for a fluke snow event. Even if it’s unlikely and probably just ends up some messy event that lets us down. 

Well hey your mountain could get something! Maybe some consolation for a month of fringes, lol

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How accurate are SSW forecasts? Feels like we get a lot of crying wolf on those, and then when it's gets to the day it's supposed to start everything backs off.

You never know how they are going to shake out, so you just roll the dice with guidance consensus. 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You never know how they are going to shake out, so you just roll the dice with guidance consensus. 

The rest of the models have followed the AI leads on every storm so far since the update 

[Terpeast]

I'll be in the WV mountains late march. Maybe a late season snow in the apps is in play...

[yoda]

  (from this afternoon AFD from LWX for the weekend)

This coming weekend could get rather interesting across the area.
Model guidance for a while now has hinted at a powerful storm system
impacting some portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This has not gone away,
and some of the deterministic guidance has painted a really
interesting picture over our region. However, its important not to
get to caught up in individual model runs at this juncture, as they
will waffle around between different scenarios many times between
now and then. There are several upper-level features that look to
interact to make this system happen, which is often very poorly
modeled at this time range. The key is, all hazards look to be in
play with this system, it is just a matter of where. Our region
could see anything from heavy rain, to perhaps even some areas
seeing heavy snow, or this system could just straight up miss the
area entirely. The uncertainty is just far too high at this point,
and hopefully there will be a bit more consistency as these features
work their way into the CONUS over the coming days. Additionally, we
can`t ignore the fact that this is March we are talking about, and
there will assuredly be questions regarding the thermodynamic
environment and timing of precipitation.

That all being said, have added some snow into the forecast for
Saturday night into Sunday, but kept slight chance POPs at the
moment, given the uncertainty. Continue to check the forecast for
the latest updates each day, but next weekend is definitely
something to watch.

 

[IronTy]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

  (from this afternoon AFD from LWX for the weekend)

Our region
could see anything from heavy rain, to perhaps even some areas
seeing heavy snow, or this system could just straight up miss the
area entirely.

 

Thanks LWX, critical analysis.  

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

  (from this afternoon AFD from LWX for the weekend)

This coming weekend could get rather interesting across the area.
Model guidance for a while now has hinted at a powerful storm system
impacting some portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This has not gone away,
and some of the deterministic guidance has painted a really
interesting picture over our region. However, its important not to
get to caught up in individual model runs at this juncture, as they
will waffle around between different scenarios many times between
now and then. There are several upper-level features that look to
interact to make this system happen, which is often very poorly
modeled at this time range. The key is, all hazards look to be in
play with this system, it is just a matter of where. Our region
could see anything from heavy rain, to perhaps even some areas
seeing heavy snow, or this system could just straight up miss the
area entirely. The uncertainty is just far too high at this point,
and hopefully there will be a bit more consistency as these features
work their way into the CONUS over the coming days. Additionally, we
can`t ignore the fact that this is March we are talking about, and
there will assuredly be questions regarding the thermodynamic
environment and timing of precipitation.

That all being said, have added some snow into the forecast for
Saturday night into Sunday, but kept slight chance POPs at the
moment, given the uncertainty. Continue to check the forecast for
the latest updates each day, but next weekend is definitely
something to watch.

 

Odds favor 18z Gfs won't look like 12z.  No consistency when it comes to snow "threats" all winter.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How accurate are SSW forecasts? Feels like we get a lot of crying wolf on those, and then when it's gets to the day it's supposed to start everything backs off.

The SSW predictions and outcomes Never get reviewed after they have been proclaimed .