Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 01:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:04 AM With the Western US ridge really overperforming today (Portland almost hit 80*), Models really trended warmer in the medium range for the US, with that being initialized. Really amped this +NAO/+EPO pattern, maybe something near 90* around here isn't so far away. Apr 4-7 looks warm, if not hot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Wednesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:59 PM 14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: With the Western US ridge really overperforming today (Portland almost hit 80*), Models really trended warmer in the medium range for the US, with that being initialized. Really amped this +NAO/+EPO pattern, maybe something near 90* around here isn't so far away. Apr 4-7 looks warm, if not hot. I'm hyped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:19 PM 15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: With the Western US ridge really overperforming today (Portland almost hit 80*), Models really trended warmer in the medium range for the US, with that being initialized. Really amped this +NAO/+EPO pattern, maybe something near 90* around here isn't so far away. Apr 4-7 looks warm, if not hot. I could care less for 90 since summer lasts here until the end of October, 8 months from now. Rainfall and drought feedback will play a role here this summer despite some modeling going with the core of the heat in the Midwest and Plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:04 PM It was really amazing to see the grass green up after those 2 good rains we had.. it was brown before. Hopefully we don't continue the pattern of last Summer, where the cap was breaking for nothing.. it was hot and humid, and no thunderstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM WB 12Z EURO. Light showers Friday. Maybe a better chance Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:19 PM Guidance keeps saying eventually the drought will get dented! But things tend to fizzle at short range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Wednesday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:57 PM 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance keeps saying eventually the drought will get dented! But things tend to fizzle at short range. It's wild how the Richmond area has been a magnetic for precip for the past year. That area has a surplus of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:04 PM 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: It's wild how the Richmond area has been a magnetic for precip for the past year. That area has a surplus of rain. You're dwelling too much on Richmond. In December of 2024, Richmond was in moderate drought. Rainfall deficits have been a problem in the MA for 5 years now. The same anomaly contributes to the snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:11 PM 4 minutes ago, stormy said: You're dwelling too much on Richmond. In December of 2024, Richmond was in moderate drought. Rainfall deficits have been a problem in the MA for 5 years now. The same anomaly contributes to the snow drought. I guess you're right come to think about it. The drought has been kinda morphing around the MA for a long time. My area got swamped for several years while the Blue Ridge droughted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:33 AM 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Guidance keeps saying eventually the drought will get dented! But things tend to fizzle at short range. CPC has had above average precip in the area pretty much every day, in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day, since early February.. hasn't happened like that yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: I guess you're right come to think about it. The drought has been kinda morphing around the MA for a long time. My area got swamped for several years while the Blue Ridge droughted out. We need a 2018. My IG is set to private, but I made a post there showing June 2018 vs December 2017 at Great Falls. The difference was ridiculous. I think 2017 was wet too, but more so in the summer. Definitely mosquito, spider, and gnat type of weather. In a weird way, I miss it lol. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 12:49 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:49 AM It is not just the GFS that has wacky runs at range. Latest WB 18Z AI.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 12:57 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:57 AM 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: It is not just the GFS that has wacky runs at range. Latest WB 18Z AI.... This goes for everyone.. if the model is showing snow in the long range: 1) Look at the 500mb index patterns - Is the NAO negative? - Is the PNA positive? - Is the EPO negative? If not, don't expect troughs. This kind of hit me when PSUhoffman said 10% chance it verifies.. in reality, it's about 1-2%. Unless the NAO is negative, ensemble mean is showing a trough over the east, etc. For your map, I'd say it's 1% chance of verifying. It hit 82F in Portland today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 01:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:08 AM 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This goes for everyone.. if the model is showing snow in the long range: 1) Look at the 500mb index patterns - Is the NAO negative? - Is the PNA positive? - Is the EPO negative? If not, don't expect troughs. This kind of hit me when PSUhoffman said 10% chance it verifies.. in reality, it's about 1-2%. Unless the NAO is negative, ensemble mean is showing a trough over the east, etc. For your map, I'd say it's 1% chance of verifying. It hit 82F in Portland today. If anything this should translate into rainfall potential, however, weeks 3 to 4 look drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted Thursday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:04 PM I hope everyone's crops hold up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Thursday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:30 PM 14 hours ago, Weather Will said: It is not just the GFS that has wacky runs at range. Latest WB 18Z AI.... Lmaoo gfs is just funny anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 PM 14 hours ago, frd said: If anything this should translate into rainfall potential, however, weeks 3 to 4 look drier Well any rain is good rain But we need a good soaking rain for a couple days to really dent any drought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:57 PM 24 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Well any rain is good rain But we need a good soaking rain for a couple days to really dent any drought That is true, so many red flag warnings the past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Friday at 12:42 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:42 AM 11 hours ago, Yeoman said: I hope everyone's crops hold up! I hope your concrete doesn't crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:31 AM 48 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I hope your concrete doesn't crack 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 01:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:48 AM 9 hours ago, frd said: That is true, so many red flag warnings the past year. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast The next 7 days don't look very promising for drought relief in the areas that need it most. Maybe an inch? GEFS looks similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Friday at 03:16 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:16 AM 1 hour ago, CAPE said: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast The next 7 days don't look very promising for drought relief in the areas that need it most. Maybe an inch? GEFS looks similar. Knowing the pattern since last summer this will get walked back to about 5-25% of what's on this map by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Friday at 10:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:56 AM 9 hours ago, CAPE said: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast The next 7 days don't look very promising for drought relief in the areas that need it most. Maybe an inch? GEFS looks similar. Exactly. Very discouraging for agriculture and for the water tables. Soil moisture levels continue to decline and will do so even more the next couple days with the warmer temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Friday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:32 AM 1.31" of rain the first 28 days of March. That's only 37% of normal............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Friday at 12:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:13 PM 40 minutes ago, stormy said: 1.31" of rain the first 28 days of March. That's only 37% of normal............................. I have 0.56 for March! I don't love dreary, rainy days in April but I'm hoping for some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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