Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Saturday at 03:46 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:46 AM Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM On 3/22/2025 at 3:46 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. Expand April severe time period showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Saturday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:13 PM On 3/22/2025 at 3:46 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. Expand A southeast ridge with the proper strength can funnel Gulf moisture our way. We can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 11:47 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:47 PM WB 18Z EURO AI.... last chance storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Sunday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:52 AM On 3/22/2025 at 11:47 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO AI.... last chance storm...Non-accumulating, cosmetic snows are for November and early Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:20 PM Gfs gives Short Pump 15" of April snow. The gfs has become unusable garbage lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:40 PM Let’s all agree that we want the gfs to be wrong for next weekend. Go euro go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:46 PM So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM On 3/23/2025 at 12:46 PM, dailylurker said: So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol Expand Spring is the worst with it. I’m ready to get to “highs in the upper 80s with a chance of afternoon storms, some may be strong to severe” on repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:10 PM On 3/23/2025 at 12:46 PM, dailylurker said: So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol Expand GFS has been pretty bad in the LR recently. It likes cold and snow too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Sunday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:08 PM On 3/23/2025 at 12:46 PM, dailylurker said: So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol Expand I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south. They simply disagree on the location of the boundary. That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other. And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:42 PM On 3/23/2025 at 3:08 PM, high risk said: I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south. They simply disagree on the location of the boundary. That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other. And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles. Expand It's just MD in spring lol. Hopefully the gfs has the right idea about active weather. A couple of cold rainers would be fine. I'd love an all day soaker that drops 2"+ area wide. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM 12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Sunday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:39 PM Re long range models...just a reminder that the majority of humans don't look at the 7-10+ day GFS and Euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM On 3/23/2025 at 11:39 PM, 87storms said: Re long range models...just a reminder that the majority of humans don't look at the GFS and Euro lol. Expand Fixed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 12:01 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:01 AM On 3/23/2025 at 11:59 PM, Chris78 said: Fixed. Expand That too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:44 AM On 3/23/2025 at 7:28 PM, yoda said: 12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range Expand Wonder if we bake this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Monday at 01:42 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:42 AM On 3/24/2025 at 12:44 AM, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if we bake this summer. Expand Modeling seems to have the core of the heat in the center of the country with a pretty bad drought developing there. Also of note, our area is painted as having normal rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Monday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:35 PM On 3/24/2025 at 6:44 PM, Interstate said: Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. Expand I have a tee time mid-afternoon Saturday. Damn near a 40 degree difference in the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Monday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:51 PM On 3/24/2025 at 6:44 PM, Interstate said: Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. Expand LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front gradually lifting northward across the area Thursday night through Friday night should result in an overall milder trend, though passing low pressure may produce some rain, especially across northern parts of the region and especially Friday night. The warm advection should result in lows mostly above freezing Thursday night, highs approaching or passing 60 in much of the area Friday, and lows remaining in the much milder 40s to low 50s Friday night. This front then starts to stall to our northeast, and passing waves of low pressure along it may cause oscillations. The end result is that while overall, the weekend looks mild, a northeast to southwest temperature gradient is expected, with areas closer to New York City more likely to struggle to reach 60 both days, while the central Delmarva could easily be well into the 70s. Chances of rain will likewise be higher across the north, with much less chance down in the Delmarva. Lows Saturday night will also be mild, likely 40s north and 50s south. Stronger frontal system then likely crosses the region Sunday night into Monday, with better shower coverage region-wide, but also warmth becoming more widespread a southerly winds increase just before frontal passage. This likely pushes lows into the 50s for much of the area Sunday night with most of the region reaching the 60s Monday, with 70s more likely in the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:59 PM On 3/24/2025 at 7:35 PM, MN Transplant said: I have a tee time mid-afternoon Saturday. Damn near a 40 degree difference in the models. Expand Get your wedge ready 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted Monday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:48 PM On 3/24/2025 at 7:51 PM, frd said: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front gradually lifting northward across the area Thursday night through Friday night should result in an overall milder trend, though passing low pressure may produce some rain, especially across northern parts of the region and especially Friday night. The warm advection should result in lows mostly above freezing Thursday night, highs approaching or passing 60 in much of the area Friday, and lows remaining in the much milder 40s to low 50s Friday night. This front then starts to stall to our northeast, and passing waves of low pressure along it may cause oscillations. The end result is that while overall, the weekend looks mild, a northeast to southwest temperature gradient is expected, with areas closer to New York City more likely to struggle to reach 60 both days, while the central Delmarva could easily be well into the 70s. Chances of rain will likewise be higher across the north, with much less chance down in the Delmarva. Lows Saturday night will also be mild, likely 40s north and 50s south. Stronger frontal system then likely crosses the region Sunday night into Monday, with better shower coverage region-wide, but also warmth becoming more widespread a southerly winds increase just before frontal passage. This likely pushes lows into the 50s for much of the area Sunday night with most of the region reaching the 60s Monday, with 70s more likely in the Delmarva. Expand NWS is giving the GFS nothing then in essence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:28 PM On 3/24/2025 at 7:59 PM, WxUSAF said: Get your wedge ready Expand Classic backdoor cold front setup. I'll be in Philly this weekend, so I'm ready for 40 degrees and foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Monday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:33 PM On 3/24/2025 at 8:48 PM, RickinBaltimore said: NWS is giving the GFS nothing then in essence. Expand Yes, but not loving the lack of sunshine now for Fri., Sat and Sunday. What was sunny is now cloudy. I rather have 50 and sunny, versus cloudy and 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:01 PM On 3/24/2025 at 8:48 PM, RickinBaltimore said: NWS is giving the GFS nothing then in essence. Expand Smart move. CMC concurs with Euro. GEFS is also in the warmer camp for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Monday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:22 PM Bet on wedgies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:22 PM For the 777th post, I'll say it's going to be 77* on April 7th. https://ibb.co/pjWYBwg9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Monday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 PM On 3/24/2025 at 6:44 PM, Interstate said: Big difference with the GFS and EURO/CMC on Saturday. Highs in the 40’s to highs in the 70/80s. Expand OK, that SUCKS to have that wide a take on the temps Saturday (as I try and set weekend plans for a second date) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago GFS has caved to the hot weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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