March Medium/ Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. 

[frd]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. 

April severe time period showing up.  

[stormy]

17 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice SE ridge showing up on models April 5-7. We could break the 80s sometime around those days. 

A southeast ridge with the proper strength can funnel Gulf moisture our way.  We can only hope.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI.... last chance storm...

[87storms]

WB 18Z EURO AI.... last chance storm...

Non-accumulating, cosmetic snows are for November and early Dec

[dailylurker]

Gfs gives Short Pump 15" of April snow. The gfs has become unusable garbage lol

[snowfan]

Let’s all agree that we want the gfs to be wrong for next weekend. Go euro go!

 

[dailylurker]

So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol

[konksw]

10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol

Spring is the worst with it. I’m ready to get to “highs in the upper 80s with a chance of afternoon storms, some may be strong to severe” on repeat. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol

GFS has been pretty bad in the LR recently. It likes cold and snow too much.

[high risk]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

So.. in 7 days it's going to either be snowing and 30 or sunny and 80. LR forecasting sure has come a long way lol

        I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south.    They simply disagree on the location of the boundary.      That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other.    And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles.

[dailylurker]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

        I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south.    They simply disagree on the location of the boundary.      That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other.    And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles.

It's just MD in spring lol. Hopefully the gfs has the right idea about active weather. A couple of cold rainers would be fine. I'd love an all day soaker that drops 2"+ area wide. 

[yoda]

12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range

[87storms]

Re long range models...just a reminder that the majority of humans don't look at the 7-10+ day GFS and Euro lol.

[Chris78]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Re long range models...just a reminder that the majority of humans don't look at the GFS and Euro lol.

Fixed.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Fixed.

That too

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, yoda said:

12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range

Wonder if we bake this summer.

 

 

[frd]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if we bake this summer.

 

 

Modeling seems to have the core of the heat in the center of the country with a pretty bad drought developing there. Also of note, our area is painted as having normal rainfall.