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March Medium/ Long Range


Weather Will
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

There was potential, but it didn't work out. Feb 19 was really the one shot and that didn't come together for our area. The epic projections for late Feb to mid March were just a little off lol. Similar to last winter.

Weather Will and his 40 inch snowfall maps :cry:  

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17 minutes ago, IronTy said:

DESTROY'd

I remember liking the Feb 10-12 window 8-10 days out, and also something around PD. That storm happened a couple days later and ofc was a close miss to the south. Like Psu I did think there would be a chance or 2 beyond that, but I never saw it as some great window, not with the forecast +AO/NAO and uncertainty in the Pacific.

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I remember liking the Feb 10-12 window 8-10 days out, and also something around PD. That storm happened a couple days later and ofc was a close miss to the south. Like Psu I did think there would be a chance or 2 beyond that, but I never saw it as some great window, not with the forecast +AO/NAO and uncertainty in the Pacific.

After last winter's epic period bust I was not a believer in this winter's period.  We haven't had an actual coastal storm pattern for so long now that I'm going to stick with persistence until we can throw up some real results.  At some point I'm sure we will see them again but until I see results from that I'm going to remain skeptical of any LR modeling showing them.  Maybe next winter...

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4 hours ago, konksw said:

March has no charm. 

March is good if there is snow but otherwise its time for spring to come alive. Already starting to see early blooms.  The longer days are great. This month has been odd since there literally has been nothing to track.  

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16 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Surprising because those maps always verify........

I be happy with 25 % of those model outputs, but sadly it was mostly zero.  Zero hope is better than hopium . 

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5 hours ago, blizzardmeiser said:

March is good if there is snow but otherwise its time for spring to come alive. Already starting to see early blooms.  The longer days are great. This month has been odd since there literally has been nothing to track.  

Eh I like March in general. Transitional month. Back and forth. Sometimes we get snow but not lately. In general I prefer March and April to be more on the cool side like Fall(my favorite season). Relentless warm/hot and humid will come soon enough, and typically lasts 5+ months.

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Eh I like March in general. Transitional month. Back and forth. Sometimes we get snow but not lately. In general I prefer March and April to be more on the cool side like Fall(my favorite season). Relentless warm/hot and humid will come soon enough, and typically lasts 5+ months.

Yea…not trying to rush into summer heat until mid June like last year
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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Eh I like March in general. Transitional month. Back and forth. Sometimes we get snow but not lately. In general I prefer March and April to be more on the cool side like Fall(my favorite season). Relentless warm/hot and humid will come soon enough, and typically lasts 5+ months.

Now that we move the clocks in early March, the month is much better. Last year we didn’t get hot/humid till late June. That was a great spring. 

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28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Loans like the qpf amounts for Sunday have really gone down.

Even the day 6 and 7 rainfall on the WPC site has gone down as well. Heaviest rains next 7 days just offshore. 

 

 

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On 3/14/2025 at 6:58 AM, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps.

Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. 

Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3

After a 70 degree day on this Wednesday,  it may be a long time until we see 70 degrees again as cooler air seems to settle in the East. 

As for the summer it would be nice to get several breaks from the non-stop heat and humidity. 

  

 

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On 3/14/2025 at 6:07 PM, CAPE said:

Eh I like March in general. Transitional month. Back and forth. Sometimes we get snow but not lately. In general I prefer March and April to be more on the cool side like Fall(my favorite season). Relentless warm/hot and humid will come soon enough, and typically lasts 5+ months.

Agree.  Unlike perhaps some in here, I really like good March snows when we get them!  Who cares if generally they get melted away within a couple of days.  And we've had some solid ones over the years.  I'm not a big fan of 40s-50s and cloudy/drizzle, but you cannot escape that around here in March or April (sometimes even May!).  So you deal with it and enjoy either the snow events we do get in March, or the 60s-70s pleasant spring weather as things come alive again.  And I also agree, we'll see God-awful heat and humidity soon enough, and for far too long of a time!  That much is guaranteed every single year.  Actually, outside winter when there are snow chances (such as they are!) my favorite season is fall...the changing leaves, crisper evenings and nights after the heat of summer, it generally tends to be pleasant out, plus looking forward to all the upcoming Holidays the latter part of the year.

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Well it appears the 70 degree high for this Weds here is not happening,  due to some onshore flow even with WA. 

Another change is the significant rain probability for Thursday night is lessening as the set-up/timing and energy miss us to the North. 

Look for chilly weather after the strong cold front and it may last a while.  Booo

 

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Well it appears the 70 degree high for this Weds here is not happening,  due to some onshore flow even with WA. 
Another change is the significant rain probability for Thursday night is lessening as the set-up/timing and energy miss us to the North. 
Look for chilly weather after the strong cold front and it may last a while.  Booo
 

If chilly means 50s and 60s in Frederick in March, I’m all in.
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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Line honestly looks paltry right now for some good rains. Would trade the severe threat for the chance of a good half inch of rain.

Every time rain is forecasted the models have widespread agreement of 0.5-2 inches but then suddenly and epically collapse at the last minute.

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9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Every time rain is forecasted the models have widespread agreement of 0.5-2 inches but then suddenly and epically collapse at the last minute.

I really think storm tracks are further north the last several years.  I use this example a lot, but it's pretty telling that we rarely get clippers anymore.  The first and second parts to this system went all the way into the Wisconsin/Great Lakes region.  Cutters are not our strength.  We need systems to be further south and they just simply haven't been that way often enough.

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17 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I really think storm tracks are further north the last several years.  I use this example a lot, but it's pretty telling that we rarely get clippers anymore.  The first and second parts to this system went all the way into the Wisconsin/Great Lakes region.  Cutters are not our strength.  We need systems to be further south and they just simply haven't been that way often enough.

And yet most of the snow was south this year :huh:

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27 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I really think storm tracks are further north the last several years.  I use this example a lot, but it's pretty telling that we rarely get clippers anymore.  The first and second parts to this system went all the way into the Wisconsin/Great Lakes region.  Cutters are not our strength.  We need systems to be further south and they just simply haven't been that way often enough.

And when the systems are further south they run into an anti rain force field somewhere around Richmond. I brought it up in my "is it ever going to rain again" thread.

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Active pattern coming up, Thursday rain and thundershowers, then cooler and windy. Warmer by weekend then another system next Monday.  

Wednesday and Thursday warmest days in the near term. 

 

 

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