March Medium/ Long Range

[BlizzardNole]

Hopeful for good rain on Sunday.  Only got about 0.35 from last rain event

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM has highs only near 50 on Th.  Official forecast is for 67 in Frederick, MD area.

[WxUSAF]

#wedgeseason

[midatlanticweather]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

#wedgeseason

And not the severe kind! LOL! 

 

[BristowWx]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM has highs only near 50 on Th.  Official forecast is for 67 in Frederick, MD area.

This is what it has come to…pity cool maritime air.  Please someone come over and put a pick ax in my head. I’ll cover all expenses 

[Roger Smith]

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? 

Extreme warmth in early spring is often correlated with below normal temperatures in late spring and early summer. For example in 1945 it was warmer from mid-March to mid-April than it was from mid-May to mid-June in a lot of places in the northeastern states and Ontario. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Sunday's rain is getting walked back

[Ji]

GFS was cooking up a hit on March 21. Only 384 hours to go 

Let’s go

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Let’s go

Bad news… 

[high risk]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? 

         Did you accidentally stumble in here while looking for the Guam forum???   

[high risk]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 3K NAM has highs only near 50 on Th.  Official forecast is for 67 in Frederick, MD area.

 

    Spot on.   Forecasted highs for Thursday and Friday are way too warm.

[yoda]

7 hours ago, high risk said:

    Spot on.   Forecasted highs for Thursday and Friday are way too warm.

They got dropped to upper 50s for DC metro for both days in this mornings zones

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

They got dropped to upper 50s for DC metro for both days in this mornings zones

I mentioned this in the disc-obs thread(really where it belongs). Mount Holly revised high temps today through Friday downward for here yesterday.

[Round Hill WX]

Doesn't look like the clouds are going to cooperate for tomorrow night's full lunar eclipse. 

[Rhino16]

4 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Doesn't look like the clouds are going to cooperate for tomorrow night's full lunar eclipse. 

I noticed that yesterday, I really hope there’s a conveniently timed gap.

[frd]

Moderate wind threat later Sunday and Sunday night.

 

Mount Holly AFD

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure lifts into Canada, and this drags a strong
cold front through the Great Lakes Saturday night, and will be
over the Ohio Valley down through the Gulf Coast states on
Sunday. A tight southerly pressure gradient will develop between
high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and low pressure north of
the Great Lakes over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Strong
winds aloft will be associated with this approaching system,
with a potential 50 to 60 kt low level jet that moves across the
region Sunday afternoon and evening, and then a 100+ kt jet
streak following behind Sunday night. During the day, south
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts. A
Wind Advisory may be needed.

 

 

 

 

[Chris78]

45 minutes ago, frd said:

Moderate wind threat later Sunday and Sunday night.

 

Mount Holly AFD

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure lifts into Canada, and this drags a strong
cold front through the Great Lakes Saturday night, and will be
over the Ohio Valley down through the Gulf Coast states on
Sunday. A tight southerly pressure gradient will develop between
high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and low pressure north of
the Great Lakes over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Strong
winds aloft will be associated with this approaching system,
with a potential 50 to 60 kt low level jet that moves across the
region Sunday afternoon and evening, and then a 100+ kt jet
streak following behind Sunday night. During the day, south
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts. A
Wind Advisory may be needed.

 

 

 

 

If only we did Snow as well as we do winds

[frd]

 

Interesting that recent March months have been way too warm for snow, borrowed this from bluewave.

It was safe to say that with the collaspe of the - AO snow probabilities in March were pretty nill. 

The cold stormy window has shifted out West this month, but overall totally went poof. Many areas of the country were in the 70's two days ago.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

Looks like generally around an inch of rain, maybe a bit more in some spots. Another small dent in the drought.

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like generally around an inch of rain, maybe a bit more in some spots. Another small dent in the drought.

But haven’t had a widespread AN precipitation month in awhile? Not running huge deficits in any particular month lately, but also coming up short each time. Still think we need a May-June deluge period to really break out.

[Ji]

But haven’t had a widespread AN precipitation month in awhile? Not running huge deficits in any particular month lately, but also coming up short each time. Still think we need a May-June deluge period to really break out.

Can we just fast forward to summer. I hate mid march to may the most. At least by summer…days start getting shorter

[frd]

Looking to the core of the summer it may not be as hot in the East as some have forecasted. 

The core of the heat is out West and in the Plains. 

Indications as well that there will at least be the potential for some rains in the East, however, very dry in the center of the Country.  

 

 

[mitchnick]

18 hours ago, frd said:

Looking to the core of the summer it may not be as hot in the East as some have forecasted. 

The core of the heat is out West and in the Plains. 

Indications as well that there will at least be the potential for some rains in the East, however, very dry in the center of the Country.  

 

 

Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps.

Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. 

Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3

[blizzardmeiser]

21 hours ago, Ji said:

Can we just fast forward to summer. I hate mid march to may the most. At least by summer…days start getting shorter

Spring is the best with the longer daylight and before the heat of the summer. Enjoy the seasonal changes. Each one has its own charms.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Only 1 day left to cash in on our epic window Feb 20-March 15. I think we got this.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only 1 day left to cash in on our epic window Feb 20-March 15. I think we got this.

Poor PSU.

[konksw]

52 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Spring is the best with the longer daylight and before the heat of the summer. Enjoy the seasonal changes. Each one has its own charms.

March has no charm. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Poor PSU.

In his defense it wasn't just him. There were several here and other subs targeting that period. But can't fault them, the ens and tellies all looked good. It was actually refreshing, however, to see many regular posters learned from past experiences not to 'lock it up' wrt post day 10 patterns. 

Eta: Maybe the mass hysteria hype train didn't leave the station due to it being late in the season? I'm giving the benefit of the doubt though, that most of us just learned from the past, so we'll stick with that story.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

In his defense it wasn't just him. There were several here and other subs targeting that period. But can't fault them, the ens and tellies all looked good. It was actually refreshing, however, to see many regular posters learned from past experiences not to 'lock it up' wrt post day 10 patterns. 

Eta: Maybe the mass hysteria hype train didn't leave the station due to it being late in the season? I'm giving the benefit of the doubt though, that most of us just learned from the past, so we'll stick with that story.

There was potential, but it didn't work out. Feb 19 was really the one shot and that didn't come together for our area. The epic projections for late Feb to mid March were just a little off lol. Similar to last winter.

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only 1 day left to cash in on our epic window Feb 20-March 15. I think we got this.

How's JB's March '93 redux looking? Asking for a friend.