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March Medium/ Long Range


Weather Will
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I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? 

Extreme warmth in early spring is often correlated with below normal temperatures in late spring and early summer. For example in 1945 it was warmer from mid-March to mid-April than it was from mid-May to mid-June in a lot of places in the northeastern states and Ontario. 

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4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? 

         Did you accidentally stumble in here while looking for the Guam forum???   

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Moderate wind threat later Sunday and Sunday night.

 

Mount Holly AFD

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure lifts into Canada, and this drags a strong
cold front through the Great Lakes Saturday night, and will be
over the Ohio Valley down through the Gulf Coast states on
Sunday. A tight southerly pressure gradient will develop between
high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and low pressure north of
the Great Lakes over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Strong
winds aloft will be associated with this approaching system,
with a potential 50 to 60 kt low level jet that moves across the
region Sunday afternoon and evening, and then a 100+ kt jet
streak following behind Sunday night. During the day, south
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts. A
Wind Advisory may be needed.

 

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, frd said:

Moderate wind threat later Sunday and Sunday night.

 

Mount Holly AFD

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure lifts into Canada, and this drags a strong
cold front through the Great Lakes Saturday night, and will be
over the Ohio Valley down through the Gulf Coast states on
Sunday. A tight southerly pressure gradient will develop between
high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and low pressure north of
the Great Lakes over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Strong
winds aloft will be associated with this approaching system,
with a potential 50 to 60 kt low level jet that moves across the
region Sunday afternoon and evening, and then a 100+ kt jet
streak following behind Sunday night. During the day, south
winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts. A
Wind Advisory may be needed.

 

 

 

 

If only we did Snow as well as we do winds

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Interesting that recent March months have been way too warm for snow, borrowed this from bluewave.

It was safe to say that with the collaspe of the - AO snow probabilities in March were pretty nill. 

The cold stormy window has shifted out West this month, but overall totally went poof. Many areas of the country were in the 70's two days ago.  

 

 IMG_3237.png.ba947703800571a446386a50e9a8db0f.png.474151ba7cd954c8d6bd6f3d3158ddac.png

 

 

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like generally around an inch of rain, maybe a bit more in some spots. Another small dent in the drought.

But haven’t had a widespread AN precipitation month in awhile? Not running huge deficits in any particular month lately, but also coming up short each time. Still think we need a May-June deluge period to really break out.

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But haven’t had a widespread AN precipitation month in awhile? Not running huge deficits in any particular month lately, but also coming up short each time. Still think we need a May-June deluge period to really break out.

Can we just fast forward to summer. I hate mid march to may the most. At least by summer…days start getting shorter
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Looking to the core of the summer it may not be as hot in the East as some have forecasted. 

The core of the heat is out West and in the Plains. 

Indications as well that there will at least be the potential for some rains in the East, however, very dry in the center of the Country.  

 

1347920921_Gl4NZQHbYAAe1Qt(1).thumb.jpeg.ed76992e97e021253c094295e60b1748.jpeg

 

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18 hours ago, frd said:

Looking to the core of the summer it may not be as hot in the East as some have forecasted. 

The core of the heat is out West and in the Plains. 

Indications as well that there will at least be the potential for some rains in the East, however, very dry in the center of the Country.  

 

1347920921_Gl4NZQHbYAAe1Qt(1).thumb.jpeg.ed76992e97e021253c094295e60b1748.jpeg

 

Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps.

Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. 

Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3

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