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March Medium/ Long Range


Weather Will
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It’s time for green gas, cold beer, baseball, grilling and pool time. This weekend the clock marches forward. The sun is at the angle that never pleases us snow lovers. It is time for warmth. Down here in Richmond, it was underwhelming incredibly but at least we got above our recent average. Maybe you guys up North a bit can lock one more minimal event again but it’s time for late days and GRILLING! Oh and of course March Madness. GO J-M-U Duuuuuuuuuuuuuukes (doubtful we get in but hopeful). 

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9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet.

An El Nino next Winter would be great because we will have -QBO.. The two together favor Stratosphere warmings, or a warm Stratosphere 75% of the time. 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO, but we did have 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, a breaking up of the 10mb PV doesn't guarantee surface cold in the mid latitudes, but odds are about 0.2-0.3 correlation for a better Winter if we have those two indexes lined up. 22-23 and 24-25 were both Nina/+QBO and they were both cold 10mb, so the combo has hit 3 Winter's in a row.. 

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2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

An El Nino next Winter would be great because we will have -QBO.. The two together favor Stratosphere warmings, or a warm Stratosphere 75% of the time. 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO, but we did have 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, a breaking up of the 10mb PV doesn't guarantee surface cold in the mid latitudes, but odds are about 0.2-0.3 correlation for a better Winter if we have those two indexes lined up. 22-23 and 24-25 were both Nina/+QBO and they were both cold 10mb, so the combo has hit 3 Winter's in a row.. 

what do you think of a chance for a +PDO

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

what do you think of a chance for a +PDO

Nino 1+2 is +1.6c right now. March Nino 1+2 has a pretty good correlation to November +PDO.

1aaa.gif

PDO still hasn't gone positive since pretty much 2016, so there is a lot of movement to make up but early trends in ENSO point to it. 

Also, according to CPC this Winter (DJF) is going to be the most +PNA on record non-El Nino. (Although I disagree with that), there is the same signal: not impressive for ENSO.. but +PDO a year rolled forward:
1A-73.gif

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22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 1+2 is +1.6c right now. March Nino 1+2 has a pretty good correlation to November +PDO.

1aaa.gif

PDO still hasn't gone positive since pretty much 2016, so there is a lot of movement to make up but early trends in ENSO point to it. 

Also, according to CPC this Winter (DJF) is going to be the most +PNA on record non-El Nino. (Although I disagree with that), there is the same signal: not impressive for ENSO.. but +PDO a year rolled forward:
1A-73.gif

Looking at the ENSO thread some are thinking that 2025-26 will be warm-neutral and 2026-27 will be an El Nino. What's the snowfall correlation for +PDO warm-neutral?

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12 minutes ago, bncho said:

Looking at the ENSO thread some are thinking that 2025-26 will be warm-neutral and 2026-27 will be an El Nino. What's the snowfall correlation for +PDO warm-neutral?

It might to try to push Weak Nino but the subsurface is still cold.  +PDO/Neutral is above average I think, probably like 120%. 

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