stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: We will be getting the 3" you have been hoping for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:00 PM 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: We're in the hospice care section of hospice care. We need the second coming of Jesus (the waiter) to serve us drinks as we await the inevitable conclusion!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 12:42 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:42 AM A few of the GFS ensembles are hanging onto the north track I'm afraid temps could be in the mid to upper 30s though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 01:06 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:06 AM 23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A few of the GFS ensembles are hanging onto the north track I'm afraid temps could be in the mid to upper 30s though right now temps are the least of our issues. we need to secure a storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM I’m 100% all in on an El Niño. I may need to start tracking downwelling off the Pacific Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:55 AM It’s time for green gas, cold beer, baseball, grilling and pool time. This weekend the clock marches forward. The sun is at the angle that never pleases us snow lovers. It is time for warmth. Down here in Richmond, it was underwhelming incredibly but at least we got above our recent average. Maybe you guys up North a bit can lock one more minimal event again but it’s time for late days and GRILLING! Oh and of course March Madness. GO J-M-U Duuuuuuuuuuuuuukes (doubtful we get in but hopeful). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 04:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:16 AM Gfs trying to shift north again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Wednesday at 04:31 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:31 AM 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs trying to shift north again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:43 PM This is probably the lamest March I’ve ever seen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Wednesday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:38 PM 54 minutes ago, Ji said: This is probably the lamest March I’ve ever seen Don't worry April will be rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Wednesday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:51 PM 13 minutes ago, peribonca said: Don't worry April will be rocking Punting April, I’m all chips in on a May save 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:54 PM GFS was cooking up a hit on March 21. Only 384 hours to go 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Wednesday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:00 PM 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS was cooking up a hit on March 21. Only 384 hours to go Yeah. Looking forward to a March 20th low that tracks to our west and thumps us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Wednesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:07 PM GFS truly does seem to be behind the Euro by a day when we get to the 5-6+ day range. I don't know what/how they feed the Euro, but it's just the goat of the models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:27 PM 2 hours ago, 87storms said: GFS truly does seem to be behind the Euro by a day when we get to the 5-6+ day range. I don't know what/how they feed the Euro, but it's just the goat of the models at this point. except when we need it to come through 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:43 PM Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet. An El Nino next Winter would be great because we will have -QBO.. The two together favor Stratosphere warmings, or a warm Stratosphere 75% of the time. 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO, but we did have 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, a breaking up of the 10mb PV doesn't guarantee surface cold in the mid latitudes, but odds are about 0.2-0.3 correlation for a better Winter if we have those two indexes lined up. 22-23 and 24-25 were both Nina/+QBO and they were both cold 10mb, so the combo has hit 3 Winter's in a row.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:53 PM 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet. i don't mind it--around this time last year there was a strong la nina favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:04 PM 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet. looks like we already have one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:11 PM 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: An El Nino next Winter would be great because we will have -QBO.. The two together favor Stratosphere warmings, or a warm Stratosphere 75% of the time. 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO, but we did have 4 Stratosphere warmings that Winter, a breaking up of the 10mb PV doesn't guarantee surface cold in the mid latitudes, but odds are about 0.2-0.3 correlation for a better Winter if we have those two indexes lined up. 22-23 and 24-25 were both Nina/+QBO and they were both cold 10mb, so the combo has hit 3 Winter's in a row.. what do you think of a chance for a +PDO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Wednesday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:27 PM While we desperate for it, these people are so bored with snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Wednesday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:35 PM 3 hours ago, Ji said: except when we need it to come through That would still make it a step ahead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 11:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:18 PM 1 hour ago, Ji said: what do you think of a chance for a +PDO Nino 1+2 is +1.6c right now. March Nino 1+2 has a pretty good correlation to November +PDO. PDO still hasn't gone positive since pretty much 2016, so there is a lot of movement to make up but early trends in ENSO point to it. Also, according to CPC this Winter (DJF) is going to be the most +PNA on record non-El Nino. (Although I disagree with that), there is the same signal: not impressive for ENSO.. but +PDO a year rolled forward: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:42 PM 22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nino 1+2 is +1.6c right now. March Nino 1+2 has a pretty good correlation to November +PDO. PDO still hasn't gone positive since pretty much 2016, so there is a lot of movement to make up but early trends in ENSO point to it. Also, according to CPC this Winter (DJF) is going to be the most +PNA on record non-El Nino. (Although I disagree with that), there is the same signal: not impressive for ENSO.. but +PDO a year rolled forward: Looking at the ENSO thread some are thinking that 2025-26 will be warm-neutral and 2026-27 will be an El Nino. What's the snowfall correlation for +PDO warm-neutral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM 12 minutes ago, bncho said: Looking at the ENSO thread some are thinking that 2025-26 will be warm-neutral and 2026-27 will be an El Nino. What's the snowfall correlation for +PDO warm-neutral? It might to try to push Weak Nino but the subsurface is still cold. +PDO/Neutral is above average I think, probably like 120%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 01:05 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:05 AM Remember when the GFS had a snowstorm for Sunday? Good times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Thursday at 01:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:33 AM 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Remember when the GFS had a snowstorm for Sunday? Good times GFS be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Thursday at 02:24 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:24 AM 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Remember when the GFS had a snowstorm for Sunday? Good times It’s not going to snow?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Thursday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:33 AM 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Remember when the GFS had a snowstorm for Sunday? Good times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Thursday at 11:49 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:49 AM 10 hours ago, stormtracker said: Remember when the GFS had a snowstorm for Sunday? Good times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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