Weather Will Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 I don't know if it is going to snow next week, just observing the GFS is showing more run to run consistency today than the AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I don't know if it is going to snow next week, just observing the GFS is showing more run to run consistency today than the AI. The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet? I thought it was marked operational now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I thought it was marked operational now. IDK, maybe. Never see it mentioned in the AFDs. Probably an indication that it isn't given much consideration, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet? WB 12Z UKMET was much further North of EURO at 12Z... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 Does anyone have the 18Z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z UKMET was much further North of EURO at 12Z... Looks a little closer to the Euro than the GFS to me given the flow. And honestly, which model would you trust more? EURO or UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. The euro is only 600 miles souther lol I'd love for the Gfs to be right. It dumps double digits on my yard but no way its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 Just now, CAPE said: Looks a little closer to the Euro than the GFS to me given the flow. And honestly, which model would you trust more? EURO or UKMET? I get it, but the EURO was the last to cave with the last storm at about Day 5, maybe it will fold again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. The models all ingest the same weather balloon data. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. The euro is only 600 miles souther lol Very interesting, just read about this. Wonder what the EURO uses to get data for western Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Does anyone have the 18Z UKMET? Only goes out 66hrs, but the ensembles go out to 198hrs. It's in the process of updating now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I get it, but the EURO was the last to cave with the last storm at about Day 5, maybe it will fold again. LOL I don't think I would use the last storm(fail) as an example. Objectively, they all had it wrong in unison bigtime, then backed off. I'm not going to give much credit to the one that was first to figure it out, if there was one. That was a model debacle across the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Just now, CAPE said: LOL I don't think I would use the last storm(fail) as an example. Objectively, they all had it wrong in unison bigtime, then backed off. I'm not going to give much credit to the one that was first, if there was one. That was a model debacle across the board. I really have a hard time calling that last storm a fail on the level that some here imply. Pretty sure the digital snow peaked on Saturday and just about every model run after that clearly hinted that the storm could slide south. The upper level setup was always suspect and, at the end of the day, the storm took the path of least resistance with simply too much of a cold air push. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Could the weather ballons not launching from Alaska cause the Gfs to be off on a tangent? No other model is even remotely close and we're only 5-6 days away. The euro is only 600 miles souther lol I'd love for the Gfs to be right. It dumps double digits on my yard but no way its correct. GFS solution looks kinda weird...the system seems too amped up given the weak high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Does anyone have the 18Z UKMET? 18z Ukmet ensembles. I guess you can say there was an improvement over the 12z run (on top). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 I think the overall feeling is fu** the snow and cold. Bring on spring!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product. I think it isn’t weight, but more like an outlier skews the mean phenomenon. eta: but I know you follow it more closely than I do this time of year and I may just be wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 NAM is running lol -PNA pattern in the Pacific is no good for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 53 minutes ago, 87storms said: I really have a hard time calling that last storm a fail on the level that some here imply. Pretty sure the digital snow peaked on Saturday and just about every model run after that clearly hinted that the storm could slide south. The upper level setup was always suspect and, at the end of the day, the storm took the path of least resistance with simply too much of a cold air push. I agree. That was a damn cold airmass and the thermal boundary was modeled to be suppressed along/ just off the SE coast. The complicated part was the TPV lobe and the possibility of enough interaction to lift the developing low northward. There was a general lean across the ens runs of favoring areas SE of our region for significant snow overall, despite op runs depicting big snows further north with the possible phase. The EPS was probably the biggest offender initially depicting a large area of 6-8" on the snow mean across our area for a few runs in support of the big snows advertised on the Euro Op, before trending SE. None of the models came close to nailing the final outcome until closer to game time though. It was more of a gradual shift over multiple runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: I thought it was marked operational now. Yes, the Euro AI is now operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: I agree. That was a damn cold airmass and the thermal boundary was modeled to be suppressed along/ just off the SE coast. The complicated part was the TPV lobe and the possibility of enough interaction to lift the developing low northward. There was a general lean across the ens runs of favoring areas SE of our region for significant snow overall, despite op runs depicting big snows further north with the possible phase. The EPS was probably the biggest offender initially depicting a large area of 6-8" on the snow mean across our area for a few runs in support of the big snows advertised on the Euro Op, before trending SE. None of the models came close to nailing the final outcome until closer to game time though. It was more of a gradual shift over multiple runs. Most model busts happen in a Nina. This winter was notorious for rather dynamic TPV movements and non-movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 At least this one we know is going to miss cause it's only has support from one model and the pattern is horse poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 5 hours ago, Ji said: We have a poster named stormtracker who’s not even tracking storms. What the heck! Because i know the heartbreak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Because i know the heartbreak At least you’re looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Gfs cave Shocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 It will change a million times, but incoming, she gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Just now, Solution Man said: It will change a million times, but incoming Congrats Norfolk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Can’t make this shit up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 The Ridge was not as sharp so the NS couldnt dig as it had before---still worth watching...but this time a much later phase. Why couldnt it go from nailing NW of us....to us....before going to SE. Why does it just jump from SE back to NW and back to Se without giving us one flush hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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