mitchnick Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 18z AI keeps it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Works for me That explains the jump in VA & WVA on the 24hr snowfall mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Just now, mitchnick said: That explains the jump in VA & WVA on the 24hr snowfall mean. Yeah lol - I mean it’s a better GEFS run if that is even a remote possibility but the jump in the ens is largely, if not entirely, that one member. The median didn’t jump all that much which was a flag that something was affecting the average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 18z AI keeps it south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 That explains the jump in VA & WVA on the 24hr snowfall mean. There’s more N members than south, but a general increase in storms because it had a better evolution can see it here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: GEFs just lit up . Not really. Even when there appears to be a decent signal on the mean, its a half dozen members that have snow for our region in the March 8-10 window. No real consistency from one model cycle to the next either. Still time, and if we get that absolute perfect timing it might work out. I kinda think there will be a smallish scale semi-dynamic system at some point that produces a few inches of wet snow-ideally timed overnight- and it will ofc be gone by noon the next day. That's typical March stuff. There is nothing about the upcoming pattern that suggests anything like the St Patty's day storm of several years back is possible, with anomalous cold and significant snow falling during the daytime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: GEFs just lit up . Agreed, the period from the 8th through the 10th certainly has potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Agreed, the period from the 8th through the 10th certainly has potential. There appear to be timing differences on the 18z GEFS at this range with 2 main heavier precip windows between the 8th & 10th. Hopefully we get 1 more to track before we close the blinds for good. Here is the 4 day snow map for the period to show the timing differences at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 WB 12Z GEFS about 7 hits....blip or beginning of a trend TBD... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Works for me Ping me when 28 other panels say the same thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 16 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ensembles for hour 318 are about as reliable as theNFL refs lol Seeing as you've been here for years, I know you know this but I'll say it anyway...Isn't this is a long range thread. So we're gonna talk about well, long range! Repeating over and over about model inaccuracy whenever somebody mentions anything LR doesn't add much...like bro, everybody knows the inaccuracies hence the term fantasy range. It's just looking at an area of potential and ya just see if it gets closer or not. It's just LR analysis--it's all low confidence, lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 A lot of Nino years in the analogs... interesting. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1894541347563913353/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said: Ping me when 28 other panels say the same thing. Yes and then ping me…I’ll be upstairs asleep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Gfs showing mischief 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DraydenWX Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Train Tracks. only 210 hours out 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Enjoy 60s 3 of the next 4 days, with no major index pattern change after that.. NAO neutralizes and PNA starts turning negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 February +PNA rolled forward 2-months is a nice severe wx signal for the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Enjoy 60s 3 of the next 4 days, with no major index pattern change after that.. NAO neutralizes and PNA starts turning negative.. You mean spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You mean spring? It's not like a pattern that's going to bust colder, without much going on in the upper latitudes. Best we have going is that the NAO is no longer strong positive.. it goes to neutral. Maybe a better chance up your way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6z euro Ai now on board for a major storm but it’s too warm, the lead wave doesn’t quite get us cold enough. If that happened I’d probably drive somewhere though at least. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not like a pattern that's going to bust colder, without much going on in the upper latitudes. Best we have going is that the NAO is no longer strong positive.. it goes to neutral. Maybe a better chance up your way.. For a while, the operational models were completely clueless and showing nonsense cold and troughiness for some reason. Not really seeing that as much now, with the OP GFS even suggesting a reload of the warmth at the very end of its 06z run. Maybe 2012 is a decent analog after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 WB 6Z AI....still tracking... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 6z GFS ensembles really look warm at the end, with +EPO for mid-March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 6z GFS ensembles really look warm at the end, with +EPO for mid-March. Looking like you will finally get your warm winter Chuck it's just happening mid March A for effort brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 53 minutes ago, Heisy said: 6z euro Ai now on board for a major storm but it’s too warm, the lead wave doesn’t quite get us cold enough. If that happened I’d probably drive somewhere though at least . It's 10:1 and temps are marginal,so it overdone even if it occurred as depicted. So it would still be a fail imby in all likelihood acting as the final dagger in the back of this winter by missing me to the north instead of south. Do I have the weenie mentality down or what? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, Heisy said: 6z euro Ai now on board for a major storm but it’s too warm, the lead wave doesn’t quite get us cold enough. If that happened I’d probably drive somewhere though at least . Need it to come south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Hey I've said many times winters over but I'd love for a winter storm to hit us all and make me eat crow!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: Need it to come south I'm now dividing snow map totals by 3. That's the actual amount. Coocoochera ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Seeing as you've been here for years, I know you know this but I'll say it anyway...Isn't this is a long range thread. So we're gonna talk about well, long range! Repeating over and over about model inaccuracy whenever somebody mentions anything LR doesn't add much...like bro, everybody knows the inaccuracies hence the term fantasy range. It's just looking at an area of potential and ya just see if it gets closer or not. It's just LR analysis--it's all low confidence, lol Weather needs many more like he and I on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 11 hours ago, Ji said: Gfs showing mischief How we looking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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