winter_warlock Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Heisey, et al., Pivotal has updated AI and now has snowfall. Here's the 6z run. Lol not even worth showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Euro has a snow event but its south of our area of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Capes been mentioning how we likely need to time a wave after a wave. The euro just about does that. Need to ignore specific details. Yeah it’s far out, but hopefully we can keep that general idea alive inside 10 days. I saw the 6z Mitch if you compare it to the OP it left the southern energy behind. Not worth worrying at this range, but I still believe this is the last shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 It’s starting to show up just a touch on the EPS . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 minute ago, Heisy said: It’s starting to show up just a touch on the EPS . Idv looks good but it’s 12 days out and we been down this road before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Idv looks good but it’s 12 days out and we been down this road before Yeah I mean who knows it probably won’t happen, but it’s the only thing worth talking about if you want snow around these parts. There’s no other wave that has a chance with the advertised pattern . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yeah I mean who knows it probably won’t happen, but it’s the only thing worth talking about if you want snow around these parts. There’s no other wave that has a chance with the advertised pattern . the models have been pretty good with threats/windows....so yes...it probably wont happen but its trackable and at this point thats all i really want. I have a good feeling about this one because nobody wants it/they are punting it south 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 the models have been pretty good with threats/windows....so yes...it probably wont happen but its trackable and at this point thats all i really want. I have a good feeling about this one because nobody wants it/they are punting it south If there was any type of blocking to slow that wave down on the 12z euro that would have been an epic run. As is hopefully we can just get break and time the wave properly etc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: If there was any type of blocking to slow that wave down on the 12z euro that would have been an epic run. As is hopefully we can just get break and time the wave properly etc . We had blocking for the last one sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 the models have been pretty good with threats/windows....so yes...it probably wont happen but its trackable and at this point thats all i really want. I have a good feeling about this one because nobody wants it/they are punting it south And it’s either this or talk about spring weather. I just want Mitch to tell me that the 12z Ai is a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, AdamHLG said: Snow or no snow, do we think it's safe to turn back on the outdoor hose bibs? Hard to imagine pipes will freeze again this winter. I would like to start spring cleaning and I do not feel like going through the process to shut off the water and drain the veins again. Just drain your main vein and you will be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Nope. 1 inch still a touch to my north. Plus it's 10:1, and temps suggest snow TV at best. Look closer, I said POINT TWO contour...(lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 32 minutes ago, Heisy said: And it’s either this or talk about spring weather. I just want Mitch to tell me that the 12z Ai is a hit . It’s out already on wxbell. I guess the update makes it come out a hour or two earlier. It a lot slower ejecting the sw energy so it goes out to sea on the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 It’s out already on wxbell. I guess the update makes it come out a hour or two earlier. It a lot slower ejecting the sw energy so it goes out to sea on the 10th Ah I see damn, least it wasn’t terribly far off leading up to that. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, Heisy said: Ah I see damn, least it wasn’t terribly far off leading up to that. . Still 10-12 days out which hasn’t been great for the AI. We definitely would want it to show a hit inside 7-8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 My wishes for snow have now turned to wishes for sunny and mild so that my son and I can have more outdoor tennis practice. Stick a fork in this winter. It's well done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Heisey, I haven't looked at them, but the AI has ensembles. Lousy graphics, but this is the link to them fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"%2C"Experimental%3A AIFS Ensemble forecast"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Idv looks good but it’s 12 days out and we been down this road before EPS and ensembles had 5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada. Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 10 minutes ago, frd said: EPS and ensembles had 5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada. Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return. Until and unless people stop buying subscriptions to 5+ day non functioning models then nothing changes. Decreased revenue will prompt action. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Until and unless people stop buying subscriptions to 5+ day non functioning models then nothing changes. Decreased revenue will prompt action. I don’t think the folks who code the models are profiting from sales to WxBell, Pivotal, etc. 99.999% sure they are government funded. Someone can prove me wrong tho 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 58 minutes ago, frd said: EPS and ensembles had 5 to 7 inches leading up to our window, and we got zip. Nothing, nada. Next winter I will only believe once inside the magic 72 hour window, otherwise I will not believe anything. It can show a foot and no Charlie Brown - Lucy flashback again. ROI in long range snow hope is a negative return. Agreed. It was a huge fail by the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agreed. It was a huge fail by the eps And when you consider that all the ensemble 50% probabilities were as impressive as they were in addition to the means, it's an absolute head shaker, if not head against wall pounder! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And when you consider that all the ensemble 50% probabilities were as impressive as they were in addition to the means, it's an absolute head shaker, if not head against wall pounder! Definitely. Strong ensemble support for a moderate hit which completely failed. DCA did get a 6+ event out of it which is impressive. Unfortunately, the bigger bust was north of that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 18z GFS had the wave now. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 26 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z GFS had the wave now. . the transient 50/50 and -EPO do help this threat. the synoptics are there, it just needs to deliver with a phase 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 5 hours ago, Heisy said: It’s starting to show up just a touch on the EPS . Only 300 hours away . Yeah it will happen lmaoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 GEFs just lit up . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Only 300 hours away . Yeah it will happen lmaooNo one is saying it will or won’t happen, the idea is models picking up on a viable pattern that could support a snow event. Anything prior to that is impossible based on the pattern so there isn’t much else to look forward unless you like to talk about sprouting daffodils . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: GEFs just lit up . We got this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: GEFs just lit up . Works for me 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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