March Medium/ Long Range

[Heisy]

There’s still one last window around the 8th, but when that most likely fails it’s over. Weird winter, decent patterns that didn’t produce.


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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

There’s still one last window around the 8th, but when that most likely fails it’s over. Weird winter, decent patterns that didn’t produce.


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Not terrible in DC proper, had about 14 inches of snow which is good for here comparing it to recent winters. 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

There’s still one last window around the 8th, but when that most likely fails it’s over. Weird winter, decent patterns that didn’t produce.


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But yet one that was cold pretty much along the way through and the little that did fall in our yards stuck around for a month! Weird indeed...kinda funny how I technical  better last year somehow (11.4" vs maybe 8-9" this year). One of these days I'll get above average!

[CAPE]

Looking at the ens means again today, not all that much to be excited about snow wise. The March 8-10 window doesnt look as promising as it did a couple days ago-not that it ever looked that good- and the pattern is depicted to become more unfavorable just beyond that. Been a good winter here overall, but it could have been really good with a bit more luck. Still a chance we can score a little something. March can be fluky with snow.  I would take a sloppy inch- that would get me over 20 for the season.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I will finish below normal for snow for the 9th consecutive year and still not a 6" storm since Jan 2016.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I will finish below normal for snow for the 9th consecutive year and still not a 6" storm since Jan 2016.

That's incredible.

[mattie g]

I’m not particularly interested in snow right now, but if it happens then I’ll enjoy it.

That said, can we just let people post analysis in here and not revert to “it’s over” or “what’s the point” posts? Let people analyze, post, and track what they want. If you don’t want to, then steer clear of the thread.

Now…off my lawn!

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's incredible.

Same here, smh. I haven't even hit median since 2019 when we got to 18.3". And even the one time BWI measured over 6"...here in N. Baltimore it never got there, lol I sure would like to know what the heck is going on or if it's just horrible luck. E-W waves like Psu mentioned have just hit the same wall over and over again...it's one of those weird things where ya swear there's a reason but there may not be. I mean...the same spot losing out and nothing changed geographically? Nah man it had to be something, lol Hope the next time we have a legit nino it'll finally break the streak.

Until then...we up here have a complaint without criticism card as we would've had an entire decade of bad snow luck 

[JenkinsJinkies]

I guessing because of how January went and how it was a wall to wall cold season I guess that’s we’re not getting a “what went wrong” thread for the pattern collapse.

Maybe we could do a “When is it going to be our turn” thread?

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

There’s still one last window around the 8th, but when that most likely fails it’s over. Weird winter, decent patterns that didn’t produce.


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We need one more @Heisy

 

make it happen 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same here, smh. I haven't even hit median since 2019 when we got to 18.3". And even the one time BWI measured over 6"...here in N. Baltimore it never got there, lol I sure would like to know what the heck is going on or if it's just horrible luck. E-W waves like Psu mentioned have just hit the same wall over and over again...it's one of those weird things where ya swear there's a reason but there may not be. I mean...the same spot losing out and nothing changed geographically? Nah man it had to be something, lol Hope the next time we have a legit nino it'll finally break the streak.

Until then...we up here have a complaint without criticism card as we would've had an entire decade of bad snow luck 

I think it is predominately Nina climo, modified somewhat by other factors, and just some bad luck up your way. -EPO patterns can tend towards dry/cold and later development of lows that do track to our south. Even here I have been on the edge of some of the recent storms(da bomb cyclone) that have nailed the immediate coast, but have done really well with others. Two 8-10" storms this winter and the early Jan(CAPE!) storm in 2022, plus multiple other 5-7" storms since the 2016 Jan storm(which was disappointing here). The Neutral/Nino winters in that time frame have produced below avg snow here. In short, a Nina with a significant period featuring an EPO ridge has worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our subforum, even with marginal help in the AO/NAO space.

[bncho]

I think next year will be a bit better for all of us, even if it isn't a Nino.

But with the improving PDO, if by chance we get a Modoki Nino I think it'll be a record-breaking season due to the heightened chance for massive storms due to climate change.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

There’s still one last window around the 8th, but when that most likely fails it’s over. Weird winter, decent patterns that didn’t produce.


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18z has a real snowstorm on 3/9. Actually has a light appetizer on the 8th too. Surface temps are marginal, but looks like snow west and north of I95. Will need to wait on TT or Wxbell to confirm surface, but 850's are cold enough.

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z has a real snowstorm on 3/9. Actually has a light appetizer on the 8th too. Surface temps are marginal, but looks like snow west and north of I95. Will need to wait on TT or Wxbell to confirm surface, but 850's are cold enough.

AI? Hasn’t loaded on wxbell since the 00z run 

[Heisy]

18z has a real snowstorm on 3/9. Actually has a light appetizer on the 8th too. Surface temps are marginal, but looks like snow west and north of I95. Will need to wait on TT or Wxbell to confirm surface, but 850's are cold enough.

I mean that’s been the window I’ve been focused on. Like all snow said it isn’t coming out on wxbell so I can’t see how it gets there.


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[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I mean that’s been the window I’ve been focused on. Like all snow said it isn’t coming out on wxbell so I can’t see how it gets there.


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Surface temps would be the hurdle and it's obviously way to early to know that. Of course, it could easily be gone come 0z, but hopefully it gives us 1 more shot. If not, then bring on the warmth.

[Blizzard of 93]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z has a real snowstorm on 3/9. Actually has a light appetizer on the 8th too. Surface temps are marginal, but looks like snow west and north of I95. Will need to wait on TT or Wxbell to confirm surface, but 850's are cold enough.

Apparently that’s 2 runs in a row with this similar look on the AI for 3/9.

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Surface temps would be the hurdle and it's obviously way to early to know that. Of course, it could easily be gone come 0z, but hopefully it gives us 1 more shot. If not, then bring on the warmth.

 

[Heisy]

 

So this was the 12z euro. It had this look….


It lead to this low.


Surface temps would have been fine if it was closer, just pointing out fwiw


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[87storms]

I will finish below normal for snow for the 9th consecutive year and still not a 6" storm since Jan 2016.

It’s not a fluke. This area is showing to be very prone to droughts without an active southern stream and the lack of clippers able to make it south of our latitude is a thing as well. I also don’t even remember the last time we had a legit coastal storm. Did we even have a nor’easter this year?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s not a fluke. This area is showing to be very prone to droughts without an active southern stream and the lack of clippers able to make it south of our latitude is a thing as well. I also don’t even remember the last time we had a legit coastal storm. Did we even have a nor’easter this year?

Yeah but the geography didn't change, though...and we're not talking about being "too warm" either...so what changed?

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

So this was the 12z euro. It had this look….


It lead to this low.


Surface temps would have been fine if it was closer, just pointing out fwiw


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Come to think of it, today was the upgrade. Maybe that's why there's nothing new on TT and Pivotal.  Idk, just a thought.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but the geography didn't change, though...and we're not talking about being "too warm" either...so what changed?

It's this pattern we've had since 2023, every time there's a big rain that looks like it'll end a dry pattern it instead gets followed by 3 weeks of wall to wall low humidity cloudless days. If this winter was a torch I would be wondering if we had swapped climates with California sometime over the last 2 years.

[ravensrule]

6 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I will finish below normal for snow for the 9th consecutive year and still not a 6" storm since Jan 2016.

Did you ever think maybe it’s you and not the atmosphere. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Come to think of it, today was the upgrade. Maybe that's why there's nothing new on TT and Pivotal.  Idk, just a thought.

I thought the upgrade was tomorrow?. I always saw February 25. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, Ji said:

ben Noll said El nino is already underway

We still have a lot of negative water in the ENSO subsurface

Last year at this time it was already moving full Nina in the subsurface

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Makes sense given the west based Nina and MT Torq. The drawback imo is the MJO. The Models are struggling with where it's going to be and how much Weight to incorporate. 

Good catch. +Mountain Torque over Asia correlated with +PNA earlier in the Winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, frd said:

Will be a very, very active severe season coming up in the weeks and months ahead.  Start out West and move East with time. 

While I do expect it to get warm.. and this lingering cold layer is also fuel for thunderstorms, there is also a growing drought in the SW, US. In the Spring, you want to see troughs in the SW, US, that spurs on activity in the Midwest. That's a little different this year with a growing drought and kind of persistent ridging over the SW, US. 

It may be a more active season further east from the typical areas.. although a lot of N. America is dry right now, a pattern that started last year. 

[stormy]

14 hours ago, Heisy said:

There’s still one last window around the 8th, but when that most likely fails it’s over. Weird winter, decent patterns that didn’t produce.


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When you have the answer why a large section of our region has been in a drought for the past year or more regarding precipitation and it continues, you will have an answer, regarding WHY.

[Heisy]

Last nights Euro just missed a snowstorm for the 9th. Not sure what Ai showed it still isn’t up on wxbell


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