March Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Latest EPS extended says we need to score by around March 10. Seven day period March 4-11 is the time to watch.

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended: like the 7 day period ending around the 11th.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS: watching first week of March....

[dailylurker]

Next weeks cool down looks more like average temps for the first week of March. It's spring in the lowlands. I'll be preparing my potato crop next weekend. Winter ending isn't a bad thing. It's the beginning of a fresh new season. 

[Weather Will]

WB OZ EPS looks more wet than white as we head into the second week of March but at least it is something to watch.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS is colder...

[Chris78]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS is colder...

I think it's ovah

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think it's ovah

Bring on the sun and warm temps. Last week was the opportunity to cash in.

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Bring on the sun and warm temps. Last week was the opportunity to cash in.

Yup I think so.  If we can get more days like today then I say bring it on. 

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS is colder...

Look at him go

[winter_warlock]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS is colder...

  Your all reaching  now lol.  It's over lol 

[Chris78]

Euro has some snow at the end of its run for DC north.

I mean it's probably over but you never know. Most likely nothing for the next 10 days.

[winter_warlock]

On 2/20/2025 at 4:29 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GEFS: watching first week of March....

 The way the models  flipflopped on the last big storm possibility,... I dont beleive anything the models show outside of 72 hours.   Showing temps 4 to 7 degrees below normal would be nice in January but 4 to 7 degrees below normal For March 8th isn't all that cold.. especially with that march sun angle  lol  

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Bring on the sun and warm temps. Last week was the opportunity to cash in.

Try banter 

[midatlanticweather]

I would take any precipitation at this point.my yard looks like a hay field and I want it to wake up with moisture to help it be green. Not that I like mowing though.lol

[WEATHER53]

23 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 The way the models  flipflopped on the last big storm possibility,... I dont beleive anything the models show outside of 72 hours.   Showing temps 4 to 7 degrees below normal would be nice in January but 4 to 7 degrees below normal For March 8th isn't all that cold.. especially with that march sun angle  lol  

Stop paying these companies for this crap and some  changes may ensue  As long as they get the dough, nothing gets reliably accurate 

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

  Your all reaching  now lol.  It's over lol 

La Nina Marches can be unpredictable sometimes. You can't really say zero chance yet.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

 The way the models  flipflopped on the last big storm possibility,... I dont beleive anything the models show outside of 72 hours.   Showing temps 4 to 7 degrees below normal would be nice in January but 4 to 7 degrees below normal For March 8th isn't all that cold.. especially with that march sun angle  lol  

March 8 can be pretty cold if -5 anomalies are timed with a storm.

Now if this were April 8, then yeah we’d be finished.

[CAPE]

For those who want to keep hope alive, the March 8-10 window is probably the one to keep an eye on. Plenty of time to do it, and it most likely will evaporate long before we get close. I won't call it a signal because its pretty far out, but there have been suggestions on both the GEFS and EPS that a wave could possibly track underneath in that period, with low pressure along/just off the coast to our south. Timing would have to be impeccable, and even then who knows if it would be cold enough.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For those who want to keep hope alive, the March 8-10 window is probably the one to keep an eye on. Plenty of time to do it, and it most likely will evaporate long before we get close. I won't call it a signal because its pretty far out, but there have been suggestions on both the GEFS and EPS that a wave could possibly track underneath in that period, with low pressure along/just off the coast to our south. Timing would have to be impeccable, and even then who knows if it would be cold enough.

 

The perfect mega - NAO in March 2018 resulted in schools closed multiple days here, had one morning with 12 degrees F and ground blizzard conditions.  Snowed a couple times that March, it was March to remember. The lore of JB for sure. I loved that month.  Since then March has been blah..... Believe there were three times since then in which we had a - NAO , one period with a severe - NAO that even Donald S. stated would produce big here, but like the last window it busted and nothing happened except cold.  Boring.  

With the warming Pac, improving PDO in the years ahead, and the warming Atlantic maybe we improve in the snow department. sort of like a icecream sandwich and we are in the middle - white, cold and snow.     

 

 

[Scraff]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For those who want to keep hope alive, the March 8-10 window is probably the one to keep an eye on. Plenty of time to do it, and it most likely will evaporate long before we get close. I won't call it a signal because its pretty far out, but there have been suggestions on both the GEFS and EPS that a wave could possibly track underneath in that period, with low pressure along/just off the coast to our south. Timing would have to be impeccable, and even then who knows if it would be cold enough.

Let’s have at least one more fun tracking run and opportunity anyway. I’m down for our last possible score, but I’m also good with spring soon thereafter. 

[Ji]

it does not make sense to write off an early march threat. They are usually more viable than December threats and this winter has tried to snow. If we have a cold anomoly..and a wave tracks beneath us--it will probaby snow

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Stop paying these companies for this crap and some  changes may ensue  As long as they get the dough, nothing gets reliably accurate 

You do realize that it's national centers, be they government or research entities, that create and run models, don't you?  NCEP, the ECMWF, CMC, etc.  The companies such as Weather Bell, Tropical Tidbits, and the like, merely use that data and package it with their own graphics for display.  Yeah, they may do some of their own calculations to show precip type or snow amount, or other things like that, but they don't do the modeling.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

it does not make sense to write off an early march threat. They are usually more viable than December threats and this winter has tried to snow. If we have a cold anomoly..and a wave tracks beneath us--it will probaby snow

I'm half-following to the end, myself, to be honest.  I still hold out hope for one more decent snow before we're done for the season.  And of late (many years?) we've had better snow chances and more events in early-mid March than any time in December.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

it does not make sense to write off an early march threat. They are usually more viable than December threats and this winter has tried to snow. If we have a cold anomoly..and a wave tracks beneath us--it will probaby snow

The h5 pattern matters, even more so in March. A +AO/+NAO in early Spring is not conducive to getting snow at our latitude.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

it does not make sense to write off an early march threat. They are usually more viable than December threats and this winter has tried to snow. If we have a cold anomoly..and a wave tracks beneath us--it will probaby snow

Having waves track beneath us hasn't been the problem. Lol

[frd]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 pattern matters, even more so in March. A +AO/+NAO in early Spring is not conducive to getting snow at our latitude.

Time for spring landscaping.  I'm ready to get going. You have a beautiful property. I love the fire pit area.  Have fun . 

[Ji]

The h5 pattern matters, even more so in March. A +AO/+NAO in early Spring is not conducive to getting snow at our latitude.

March is a wildcard. The usual rules don’t apply

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

March is a wildcard. The usual rules don’t apply

I’m really not ready for it to be over.  April sure.  

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

March is a wildcard. The usual rules don’t apply

They apply.  To us specifically. After clocks go forward, we’re on a fast track to over. Accept it now and save yourself heartache man.  The time between Posts in this threads grown longer and longer.  Read the room.  I know folks hate to hear it, but it’s over.  We did about as well as we did.   I’m down to checking this forum twice per day.  That’s how i know it’s over.  Sooner you come to terms with it, the better it feels, trust me.