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FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle


ravensrule
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There are a lot of factors being tossed around about whats wrong...the biggest thing I see compared to 36 hours ago, is the TPV love is not separating as cleanly from the main TPV northeast of us as quickly or cleanly and its keeping heights down in front of it.  Its flattening the flow instead of allowing that TPV lobe to act as a true pinwheel in the flow.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There are a lot of factors being tossed around about whats wrong...the biggest thing I see compared to 36 hours ago, is the TPV love is not separating as cleanly from the main TPV northeast of us as quickly or cleanly and its keeping heights down in front of it.  It’s flattening the flow instead of allowing that TPV lobe to act as a true pinwheel in the flow.  

Is there any reason in particular that the models all have had it bleed the wrong way for 6 runs plus because it’s been tough to never see that reverse

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are a lot of factors being tossed around about whats wrong...the biggest thing I see compared to 36 hours ago, is the TPV love is not separating as cleanly from the main TPV northeast of us as quickly or cleanly and its keeping heights down in front of it.  Its flattening the flow instead of allowing that TPV lobe to act as a true pinwheel in the flow.  

Was seeing this as well. Just gleaning over the thicknesses, you can easily see the flow being flatter this run downstream. This will likely lead to a restriction in the deeper moisture transport as upstream impacts will likely lead to less amplification of the wave as it enters the Tennessee Valley. This might be the firm beginning of the end unless we see things flip back inside 48 hrs. Not as likely, but never know. 

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