paulythegun Posted Tuesday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:56 PM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:56 PM For the others in the same snow hole as me... keep that in mind. Think about 2010 when every single storm jacked us...think about 2011 when we got jacked by the January storm and also had a nice Feb storm that VA and DC missed out on. Think about all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that jacked our area! The 2016 HECS! We had a run! Even going back before that northeast MD did a lot better in the Feb 2006 storm and a couple of the 2005 storms! We were in a positive snow anomaly for a long time. We are paying the devil his due now. It will flip back again. Hopefully sooner rather then later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM looking a tad bit flatter out front. Let's see how this ends up you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:58 PM no one was looking forward to this run. Because we all knew it was just going to squash whatever was left of our silly hopes and dreams lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:58 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: you know 2 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: For the others in the same snow hole as me... keep that in mind. Think about 2010 when every single storm jacked us...think about 2011 when we got jacked by the January storm and also had a nice Feb storm that VA and DC missed out on. Think about all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that jacked our area! The 2016 HECS! We had a run! Even going back before that northeast MD did a lot better in the Feb 2006 storm and a couple of the 2005 storms! We were in a positive snow anomaly for a long time. We are paying the devil his due now. It will flip back again. Hopefully sooner rather then later. But last year and this year the long range ensembles modeled monster snowfall. This season already overachieved in my book but this was supposed to be an awesome pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:59 PM 22 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Alive and well. Dudes a beast. He does 120 mile bike rides for charities. Well he may be great at charity but.... forecasting accuracy leaves a bit to be desired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Tuesday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:01 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For the others in the same snow hole as me... keep that in mind. Think about 2010 when every single storm jacked us...think about 2011 when we got jacked by the January storm and also had a nice Feb storm that VA and DC missed out on. Think about all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that jacked our area! The 2016 HECS! We had a run! Even going back before that northeast MD did a lot better in the Feb 2006 storm and a couple of the 2005 storms! We were in a positive snow anomaly for a long time. We are paying the devil his due now. It will flip back again. Hopefully sooner rather then later. I think about how incredibly some of those years were all the time and that's why it's easy to accept the recent drought. Don't forget we somehow managed to get close to average in 2017/18 and 2018/19. Also look how lucky we got in 2020/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:02 PM Decommission the fucking NAM right now. 1 2 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:02 PM Just now, Jersey Andrew said: But last year and this year the long range ensembles modeled monster snowfall. This season already overachieved in my book but this was supposed to be an awesome pattern. we under achieved. It happens.... I've posted seasonal anomalies before to years that looked amazing but ended up below avg snowfall...and there are some like 2000 where the pattern looks god awful and somehow we got above normal snow. There is a lot of luck and fluke to snowfall because there are so many variables. Sometimes a great pattern can fail to produce because one or two things don't come together...and other times an only OK pattern can luck its way into hitting a MECS. It's kinda like poker...having 3 aces makes your odds of winning the hand a LOT better...but someone else might have a full house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM Well yall, we're down to radar hallucinations now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:04 PM Just now, HighStakes said: I think about how incredibly some of those years were all the time and that's why it's easy to accept the recent drought. Don't forget we somehow managed to get close to average in 2017/18 and 2018/19. Also look how lucky we got in 2020/21. yea...and those down in VA will have to remember this also when there is a year like 2014 when they "only" get 25" and northern MD gets 60+. It goes in cycles. its pretty random. The only non random part to this is we have been in a long term nina ish pattern and that is not good for us. But that will flip when the PDO does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:05 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well yall, we're down to radar hallucinations now. It was OVA OVA OVA last night once all the energy was on shore and no significant changes happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted Tuesday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:10 PM Saturday: I hope I get 20 inches! Sunday: I hope I get 3-6 inches. Monday: I hope this storm misses Richmond. Tuesday: NAM, can you do me a favor and step yourself outside? You're irritating me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted Tuesday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:11 PM Welp, we are down to hoping for a Jan 25, 2000 miracle now. Who say lightening doesn’t strike twice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Tuesday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:11 PM 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: So, I guess LWX is holding off the WWA's for the norther counties in case they go straight to Warnings. Just as I thought. After the gfs, they'll go straight to warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal! 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well yall, we're down to radar hallucinations now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal! Thanks for letting us know this. We would have never known otherwise. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Tuesday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:18 PM 39 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal! Sooooo….what are you trying to say? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:20 PM Anyone out til 0z Nam comes back way NW again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: So you are saying we should trust in the NAM and plan for our 6” this week. Guess you’ll find out in 30 40 minutes or so or when the storm leaves lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal! We're in the punchy, loopy, sarcastic, just having fun with it best we can phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Anyone out til 0z Nam comes back way NW again? We all know we’re gonna look at the 0z NAM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You guys are beating a dead horse. This is great for trying to keep a business alive, not for snow. Even if the NAM throws a snow swath over us it’s never going to reach the ground! It’s bone dry. Would take half the day to moisten the column let alone fringe bands. It’s a dead deal! we know, we're just shooting the shit really with the model runs as an excuse 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Tuesday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:24 PM 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thanks for letting us know this. We would have never known otherwise. Elegance of words. Masterpiece of American literature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM 53 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Lol. Justin berk is still alive? He’s only in his early 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 08:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:26 PM 35 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Smoking cirrus in Round Hill! Let’s get this! 32/4 Totally my view!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Tuesday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:28 PM 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Actually come to think of it...I can think of a ton of examples for almost every model where it was all by itself in showing no snow for us...and ended up right but almost no examples the other way around. For whatever reason the models seem to have a much higher verification score when they are all by themselves showing no snow, than when they are on their own showing snow. probably because - if you assume that the probabilities of all the discrete events of a storm outcome that could occur are approximately uniformly distributed (I get that is probably a stretch), and that there are more discrete events that favor a non-snow outcome vs a snow outcome for us, then the sample space of all possible outcomes are more heavily dominated by non-snow ones. Thus the probability of selecting a non-snow outcome is higher, so if a model is all by itself in predicting one, it's more likely to be correct than a model all by itself predicting a snow-outcome. I realize that there are a ton of assumptions here that are probably not empirically grounded (independent events, etc), but it seems that might be the general logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Anyone out til 0z Nam comes back way NW again? The GFS will save us in a bit! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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