yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ025-504-508-190315- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Augusta-Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge, and Augusta and Eastern Highland Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ057-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0600Z/ King George- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. * WHERE...King George County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snowfall will fall during a portion of the Wednesday evening commute, with temperatures well below freezing, which could cause roads to become very slick during a period of high traffic volume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:28 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ036-037-190315- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0009.250219T1200Z-250220T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Nelson-Albemarle- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Albemarle and Nelson Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:28 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ038-050-056-507-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1500Z-250220T0300Z/ Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Greene, Orange, and Spotsylvania Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Just now, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ038-050-056-507-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1500Z-250220T0300Z/ Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Greene, Orange, and Spotsylvania Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. Creeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Everytime I come on here, I see 30+ new posts and I think, "We are back!" Then I read the posts... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:31 PM 8 minutes ago, dailylurker said: And now Justin Berk is hugging the NAM. We're back!! Lol. Justin berk is still alive? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:33 PM Sref shifted south. It’s probably overAgainFor the 5th time 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted Tuesday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:33 PM Winter Commuting Hazard coming for the immediate metro area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Kinda ballsy calls from NWS with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Just now, Ji said: Sref shifted south. It’s probably over Again For the 5th time We got 9 lives up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:35 PM 1 minute ago, Ji said: Sref shifted south. It’s probably over Again For the 5th time 50 to 60 percent chance of one inch or more in DC metro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:36 PM 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Lol. Justin berk is still alive? Alive and well. Dudes a beast. He does 120 mile bike rides for charities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM The NAM be like. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM 38 minutes ago, Ji said: I still remember vball4life getting offended In Feb 2003 when I said the 12z avn nuked dc We used to create threads for every model run back then lol Those were great times and we had everyone from South Carolina to New England in the threads. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:38 PM @stormtracker I can think of several times the NAM was all by itself and won...but every single one was a case where it was by itself showing less or no snow lol. March 2017 was another example...it sniffed out that the primary was going to hang on way too long and we would get a ton of sleet not snow. And it was showing that for a while before other guidance caught on. I can think of several cases where it was the first to show us getting screwed and was right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:39 PM Yoda missed one.... sorry peeps, had to do it URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 230 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 NCZ004>006-VAZ035-043>047-058-059-190400- /O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0007.250219T1000Z-250220T1800Z/ Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- Including the cities of Lynchburg, Martinsville, Appomattox, Keysville, Eden, Yanceyville, Danbury, Amherst, South Boston, and Danville 230 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of north central North Carolina and central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From 5 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM 38 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: If they are getting rid of the NAM, what short-range models will they use? HRRR and FV3 I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM Actually come to think of it...I can think of a ton of examples for almost every model where it was all by itself in showing no snow for us...and ended up right but almost no examples the other way around. For whatever reason the models seem to have a much higher verification score when they are all by themselves showing no snow, than when they are on their own showing snow. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM Just now, dailylurker said: Where the hell is that lol^ Where Bob Chill now lives 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:41 PM 13 minutes ago, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ025-504-508-190315- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Augusta-Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge, and Augusta and Eastern Highland Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. This was upped from 1 to 2 this morning. LFG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Just now, clskinsfan said: HRRR and FV3 I assume? A couple years ago I asked this and was told they are were developing a new short range system but have been running into issues. It's been a while but this was what I think I remember... Originally the HRRR was supposed to be part of that process but that was scrapped. I think it was the HREF. I think they started a new experimental system but not sure if its close to being ready. They might simply be scrapping the NAM without any replacement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Just now, dailylurker said: Where the hell is that lol^ Lynchburg, Martinsville, Appomattox, Keysville, Eden, Yanceyville, Danbury, Amherst, South Boston, and Danville 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Tuesday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:45 PM So, I guess LWX is holding off the WWA's for the norther counties in case they go straight to Warnings. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:46 PM I mean it's funny but it is a simple fact the models are ALL biased too snowy for our area. It's not as bad as we think because we are biased to remember the runs that show snow and not all the runs that do not. Like 4-5 years ago I did that seasonal study to see, where I used specific points in time once a week to verify a 10 day, 5 day and 3 day forecast. And while its probably not as bad as we imagined, they did all show too much snow over the course of the season. The 10 day was the worst obviously. But the models across the board have a snowy bias. @Ji loves that since he only cares about digital blue anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM BTW the GFS had the snowiest bias overall in terms of the amount of times throughout the year it showed too much snow...but suprisingly the EURO was the worst in terms of raw totals because a few times it teased us with some absolutely ridiculous amount of snow from an over amplified storm that ended up OTS. Sound familiar. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted Tuesday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:51 PM Smoking cirrus in Round Hill! Let’s get this! 32/4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:51 PM NAM looking a tad bit flatter out front. Let's see how this ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Absolutely the same. Train tracks isn't the best word because the repetitive nature isnt just storm tracks. Areas can make up for lost time quickly in all categories but they way it happens is through a variety of events. It's more like a magnet than train tracks because that implies the same exact type of storm keeps happening. I've believed in it for over a decade and use it as a predictive tool. It won't always show up on h5 progs. It's more of a personality thing vs nuts and bolts. Stark examples are drought busters. All of a sudden it's time. Why and how I don't know but when switches flip they mean it. The lake Powell recovery (still bleak but last few years weren't supposed to happen lol) captures what I'm talking about. It got all kinds of unusual boosts including tropcial. There are cycles in cycles on longer timescales. Imho, and I've said this before, I don't think the last 8 years are a new anything. Meaning "sudden new normal". It was just a typical (with precedence) MA "anti-heater". Other than the 60s, there are examples in every decade. I'm not arguing that we're losing on the margins from temps. I just never once believe that we won't have strings of acceptable and normal winters. It was a big part of my confidence making a call against the grain this year. It was time and I guessed right. Intuition is telling me this year is our heater (or acceptable) kickoff year and the next 6-8 years will look pretty decent when it's all said and done. Not without a gnarly dud or 2 but it will not look or feel like the last 8 years on paper. There's my Uber long range call. Hope I'm alive for verification Lastly, I also strongly believe the EC (including us) will have a record breaking snow storm in the next 10 years. Warmer temps hurt us on the margins but def help us with intensity and qpf. I'm def not a Deb over our long term prospects. We just have to deal with a warmer planet like every other living thing on it Great post thanks Bob. And I agree with all of this...and am generally optimistic for the next few years. But I'll admit this season (and the last few) have been really hard to swallow. My location has not been "almost acceptable" were in the epicenter of a multi year snow hole. But I know its just short range variance in longer range cycles. I was the epicenter of a positive snow anomaly from 2010-2016. I was going to have to pay up for that eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM looking a tad bit flatter out front. Let's see how this ends up Not as strong with the SS and little more disconnected from the NS…it’s time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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