FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

One method of improvement would be to shorten the time frame length of prediction The  wind events  we’ve had twice in last two weeks were perfectly  handled because nothing was said until 3 days in advance.  
The most recent models failure began about 10 days ago with an impulse traversing the nation and supposedly setting off low pressure down south that comes up here. Too speculative that’s DC would get a bomb based on  7/8 days of required perfection as that impulse traverses the nation.  Models can’t perform in mid Atlantic for wintry precip that far out and in those circumstances .  So cut it out. For some reason NHC does not have such problems.  Excuses are that it’s just all too complex.  So just eliminate what can’t be done accurately and don’t latch onto impulse Before  they even come ashore out west . Wait until 3/4 days out and something is actually existing on this half side of the country 

 

 

I agree with your point about making predictions on unrealistic time leads. But I don’t get your NHC point. Their avg error at 5 days is over 150 miles. It’s that about what the error here was?  How is this any different? 

[psuhoffman]

Right where we want it 

[Warm Nose]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Right where we want it 

SO, in South Carolina then ...

[psuhoffman]

Look at that beautiful snowhole on the gfs 

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro bumped me up from .1 to .2". If it keeps doubling for 7 more runs I can get my 25.6" back.

Math checks out.  Well played on using 25.6 given a starting point of 0.1.

[dallen7908]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

according to the NAM, DC will get 6 inches of snow.

at least?

StnID: kdca    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
250218/1300Z   1  32009KT  23.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/1400Z   2  31011KT  24.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/1500Z   3  30011KT  24.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/1600Z   4  30011KT  25.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/1700Z   5  30011KT  26.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/1800Z   6  30011KT  27.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250218/1900Z   7  29010KT  27.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/2000Z   8  30010KT  28.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/2100Z   9  30009KT  28.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/2200Z  10  31008KT  27.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250218/2300Z  11  32007KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0000Z  12  33007KT  23.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250219/0100Z  13  34007KT  22.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0200Z  14  33007KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0300Z  15  34007KT  20.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0400Z  16  33006KT  19.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0500Z  17  33006KT  18.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0600Z  18  33007KT  17.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250219/0700Z  19  33006KT  17.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0800Z  20  33006KT  17.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/0900Z  21  33006KT  16.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1000Z  22  33005KT  16.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1100Z  23  33005KT  15.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1200Z  24  33005KT  16.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250219/1300Z  25  33006KT  17.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1400Z  26  32006KT  18.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1500Z  27  33006KT  19.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1600Z  28  33005KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1700Z  29  33005KT  21.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/1800Z  30  33005KT  22.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250219/1900Z  31  33005KT  22.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/2000Z  32  32003KT  22.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/2100Z  33  VRB01KT  21.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250219/2200Z  34  VRB01KT  20.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   13:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
250219/2300Z  35  VRB02KT  21.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
250220/0000Z  36  VRB01KT  21.3F  SNOW   18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   15:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250220/0100Z  37  33003KT  21.5F  SNOW   19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   16:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
250220/0200Z  38  36005KT  21.5F  SNOW   20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   17:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
250220/0300Z  39  36009KT  21.5F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   18:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
250220/0400Z  40  01008KT  21.6F  SNOW   19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   18:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
250220/0500Z  41  02006KT  21.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   17:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
250220/0600Z  42  02005KT  22.0F  SNOW   18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   18:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250220/0700Z  43  02004KT  22.2F  SNOW   17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060   18:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
250220/0800Z  44  01005KT  22.4F  SNOW   19:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   18:1|  4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25  100|  0|  0
250220/0900Z  45  36005KT  22.4F  SNOW   18:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040   18:1|  5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
250220/1000Z  46  36006KT  22.4F  SNOW   20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   18:1|  6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
250220/1100Z  47  35006KT  22.5F  SNOW   24:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   19:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
250220/1200Z  48  36006KT  22.5F  SNOW   20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027   19:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250220/1300Z  49  36006KT  23.1F  SNOW   21:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   19:1|  7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0
250220/1400Z  50  35007KT  23.6F  SNOW   20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   19:1|  8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45  100|  0|  0
250220/1500Z  51  34007KT  23.8F  SNOW   15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   19:1|  8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0
250220/1600Z  52  34008KT  24.2F  SNOW   17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   19:1|  9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
250220/1700Z  53  33010KT  24.2F  SNOW   24:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   19:1|  9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
250220/1800Z  54  32010KT  23.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   19:1|  9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250220/1900Z  55  32010KT  24.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027   18:1|  9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0
250220/2000Z  56  32011KT  24.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   18:1|  9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55  100|  0|  0

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

the NAM is such an unhinged model, I love it.  Gonna be sad when its retired.

[psuhoffman]

This years snow hole looks about like the Nina snow anomaly map. Just worse and it extends northeast more because we never got the 1-2 typical Nina miller b storms that save NYC-Boston. But not sure this should be all that shocking. Nina’s often have a snow hole between where the southern and southern streak storms set up and it’s often over Maryland northwest of the bay. 

[Paleocene]

Who is hype for the 18z NAM?

[LongRanger]

Mr. Miyagi says "Snow on"

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Who is hype for the 18z NAM?

18z NAM, .5” over DC again,

 

this time, snow total though, not QPF

[clskinsfan]

I am done completely dismissing the atmospheric memory theory. I will use it in the future as part of what i am looking at. It just seems to be right too often to ignore. 

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am done completely dismissing the atmospheric memory theory. I will use it in the future as part of what i am looking at. It just seems to be right too often to ignore. 

I use to make fun of Justin Berk over that. Not laughing as hard after this season even though I benefited from it. The reason were in a drought is because the same area in VA has gotten all the rain for the past 8 months. We just get scraps up here. Our rain events lately have busted hard on qpf but no one cares so no one noticed. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I use to make fun of Justin Berk over that. Not laughing as hard after this season even though I benefited from it. The reason were in a drought is because the same area in VA has gotten all the rain for the past 8 months. We just get scraps up here. Our rain events lately have busted hard on qpf but no one cares so no one noticed. 

Justin is a good guy. Wish we wasn’t such a snow weenie. Spent a lot of time with him back in the early-mid 2010’s right about when he went off the air. He knows weather, just loves calling for snow to get views. 

[Fozz]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This years snow hole looks about like the Nina snow anomaly map. Just worse and it extends northeast more because we never got the 1-2 typical Nina miller b storms that save NYC-Boston. But not sure this should be all that shocking. Nina’s often have a snow hole between where the southern and southern streak storms set up and it’s often over Maryland northwest of the bay. 

Where is that Nina snow anomaly map? I don’t think I’ve seen it

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Justin is a good guy. Wish we wasn’t such a snow weenie. Spent a lot of time with him back in the early-mid 2010’s right about when he went off the air. He knows weather, just loves calling for snow to get views. 

I agree. He's annoying but he's one of us. He's been trying harder to not get overly excited lately and dropping weenie maps on the soccer mom's that follow him. He does know our region really well. Better then most local Mets imo.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Justin is a good guy. Wish we wasn’t such a snow weenie. Spent a lot of time with him back in the early-mid 2010’s right about when he went off the air. He knows weather, just loves calling for snow to get views. 

I "interned" with him and Tony Pann on WeatherTalk back in like 2007. It was a blast. Both of them are good guys. The problem is Justin kind of went in a weird direction and had some previous posts also about chemtrails and crap. Both of them are suckers for snow and interesting weather - which unfortunately hurts them at times. 

As people though - I had nothing but great things to say about them. It was cool as a high schooler to be on the air with them a few times. And I'll never shy away from saying that I whopped their butts in the weekly forecasting battle they'd do against each other. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am done completely dismissing the atmospheric memory theory. I will use it in the future as part of what i am looking at. It just seems to be right too often to ignore. 

I feel like atmospheric memory and Chill's "train tracks" are kinda cut from a simar cloth. It’s kinda like when a winter shows ya who it is...believe it the first time, lol

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am done completely dismissing the atmospheric memory theory. I will use it in the future as part of what i am looking at. It just seems to be right too often to ignore. 

So this is semantics but I do think important distinction for any newbies. What I think you’re calling “memory” is actually seasonal pattern tendencies. In this case, a Nina background state with a somewhat stronger NS and weaker SS. The result of that is weaker SS waves that don’t phase and come north and NS waves that fly by to our north and a gap in between. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Where is that Nina snow anomaly map? I don’t think I’ve seen it

I can’t find it. It used to be up somewhere on the web.  Maybe someone knows who produced it or how to recreate it. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can’t find it. It used to be up somewhere on the web.  Maybe someone knows who produced it or how to recreate it. 

Can you recreate the 12Z Saturday Euro run for us please. 

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I agree. He's annoying but he's one of us. He's been trying harder to not get overly excited lately and dropping weenie maps on the soccer mom's that follow him. He does know our region really well. Better then most local Mets imo.

The soccer moms love him…huge part of his audience. 

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I "interned" with him and Tony Pann on WeatherTalk back in like 2007. It was a blast. Both of them are good guys. The problem is Justin kind of went in a weird direction and had some previous posts also about chemtrails and crap. Both of them are suckers for snow and interesting weather - which unfortunately hurts them at times. 

As people though - I had nothing but great things to say about them. It was cool as a high schooler to be on the air with them a few times. And I'll never shy away from saying that I whopped their butts in the weekly forecasting battle they'd do against each other. 

it was interesting when he decided to leave the air. I know he has done several philanthropies, many good causes which I can get behind. There were all good guys on the Baltimore stations. Steve Fertig from Fox was a cool one too (but Fox sucked in Baltimore). Better than WJZ giving part time met “creds” to Marty Bass. (I miss Bernadette, met her too, lovely)

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Can you recreate the 12Z Saturday Euro run for us please. 

I can.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So this is semantics but I do think important distinction for any newbies. What I think you’re calling “memory” is actually seasonal pattern tendencies. In this case, a Nina background state with a somewhat stronger NS and weaker SS. The result of that is weaker SS waves that don’t phase and come north and NS waves that fly by to our north and a gap in between. 

Thing is even when the pattern relaxes a touch it still seems to go back to it's early winter track more often than not. I am not saying it will be the only thing I look at. just saying I will not ignore it anymore.  And we have been been the beneficiary of it before. Especially 09/10

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I can.

I look forward to the 27th when the bulk of that is in South Carolina

[Bob Chill]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I feel like atmospheric memory and Chill's "train tracks" are kinda cut from a simar cloth. It’s kinda like when a winter shows ya who it is...believe it the first time, lol

Absolutely the same. Train tracks isn't the best word because the repetitive nature isnt just storm tracks. Areas can make up for lost time quickly in all categories but they way it happens is through a variety of events. It's more like a magnet than train tracks because that implies the same exact type of storm keeps happening. 

I've believed in it for over a decade and use it as a predictive tool. It won't always show up on h5 progs. It's more of a personality thing vs nuts and bolts. 

Stark examples are drought busters. All of a sudden it's time. Why and how I don't know but when switches flip they mean it. The lake Powell recovery (still bleak but last few years weren't supposed to happen lol) captures what I'm talking about. It got all kinds of unusual boosts including tropcial. 

There are cycles in cycles on longer timescales. Imho, and I've said this before, I don't think the last 8 years are a new anything. Meaning "sudden new normal". It was just a typical (with precedence) MA "anti-heater". Other than the 60s, there are examples in every decade. I'm not arguing that we're losing on the margins from temps. I just never once believe that we won't have strings of acceptable and normal winters. It was a big part of my confidence making a call against the grain this year. It was time and I guessed right. 

Intuition is telling me this year is our heater (or acceptable) kickoff year and the next 6-8 years will look pretty decent when it's all said and done. Not without a gnarly dud or 2 but it will not look or feel like the last 8 years on paper. There's my Uber long range call. Hope I'm alive for verification 

 

Lastly, I also strongly believe the EC (including us) will have a record breaking snow storm in the next 10 years.  Warmer temps hurt us on the margins but def help us with intensity and qpf. I'm def not a Deb over our long term prospects. We just have to deal with a warmer planet like every other living thing on it 

 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can’t find it. It used to be up somewhere on the web.  Maybe someone knows who produced it or how to recreate it. 

Some maps here wrt Nina historical snowfall

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/revisiting-la-nina-and-winter-snowfall

[stormtracker]

How many times has the NAM scored a coup when it was on it's own?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

How many times has the NAM scored a coup when it was on it's own?

More than once and that's enough.... allllll in

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

More than once and that's enough.... allllll in

I mean when absolutely no other model showed what it showed and they all caved to IT.