FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

 

I'm not sure what he's even talking about because I'm also in Southern Delaware and I'm certainly not expecting seven at this point.

Don't be an ass.

To be fair, we do have our own thread because let's be honest, everyone in this thread likes to pretend that civilization ends at the Bay bridge.

This is definitely a horseshit post if I'm being honest. Ask @CAPE if he feels outted being east of the bridge in here. 

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I honestly find the regional hate around here, especially during snow events, to be so absurd.  RIC vs M/D line…eastern shore vs metro areas.  Some people here are straight up children and the worst comes out in forum divider events.  It’s only snow, life will go on.

It’s naturally bound to happen in a forum that covers so much geographically, but where the large majority of those in the forum live in a relatively small area. Also, the region covers everything from the mountains to the coast, so it’s almost impossible that the entire region ever experiences the same results from a snowstorm.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, osfan24 said:

It’s naturally bound to happen in a forum that covers so much geographically, but where the large majority of those in the forum live in a relatively small area. Also, the region covers everything from the mountains to the coast, so it’s almost impossible that the entire region ever experiences the same results from a snowstorm.

Well said, there's a storm or an ideal setup for everyone. And I kind of feel that being in the C PA thread when I split a bit of time there. I'm a stones throw from the state line and lived 90% of my life in C MD, but the climo difference now where I am vs Baltimore is maybe more substantial than here vs State College in certain events. 

[mappy]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

I'm stopping. Apologies.

All good. I get your POV. The main storm threads do focus on the main I-95 corridor while not focusing a ton on those who live at the outer edges of the subforum. Most who post live in the main central part of the subforum, so it’s to be expected. But it also means when it fails for 90% of the forum, the discussion is gonna tank and I can understanding the frustration when that happens. 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

It’s naturally bound to happen in a forum that covers so much geographically, but where the large majority of those in the forum live in a relatively small area. Also, the region covers everything from the mountains to the coast, so it’s almost impossible that the entire region ever experiences the same results from a snowstorm.

^^ THIS 100% ^^

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

All good. I get your POV. The main storm threads do focus on the main I-95 corridor while not focusing a ton on those who live at the outer edges of the subforum. Most who post live in the main central part of the subforum, so it’s to be expected. But it also means when it fails for 90% of the forum, the discussion is gonna tank and I can understanding the frustration when that happens. 

Thank you! I would love nothing more than for the models to just do a complete reverse right now and just give the whole forum the shellacking they were showing on Friday. It would do wonders for the morale in here. Power of positive thinking I suppose....

[mappy]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

Thank you! I would love nothing more than for the models to just do a complete reverse right now and just give the whole forum the shellacking they were showing on Friday. It would do wonders for the morale in here. Power of positive thinking I suppose....

I wouldn’t count on a reversal and things get better for us, but hey at least the Eagles won the Super Bowl. 

[psuhoffman]

@AlexD1990 my non Ass response... the mid atlantic forum is too freaking large geographically.  Look at the other forums, NYC metro and Philly have their own... there is one just for PA but its really become central and western PA and the southern part is in ours and the eastern is in Philly.  

The geographic area "mid atlantic" is too big to have a producting regional discussion about the weather.  There is almost no chance, for example, a snowstorm that crushes the southeast parts of the "Mid atlantic" even gives me flurries up here on the northern edge of the mid atlantic.  And frankly I am NOT even the northern edge of the actual mid atlantic as most definitions of that include PA.  But I am the northern edge of this forums arbitrary geography.  The point is the weather differences between Hagerstown MD and Va Beach are way too ridiculous to be in the same thread.  They are screaming YES this is awesome for the same run that makes us want to dive off a cliff.  And you can't pretend this is 100% science and not emotional.  Frankly this thread even restricted to the DC centric area is still difficult as MOST storms wont affect us all equally...my biggest snow this year skunked most of this thread and their two biggest snows fringed me.  But at least the storms affect us.  Some systems that affect parts of the larger regions dont affect us at all.  

So we have to have sub regional threads within this way too large geographic sub forum imo.  And telling the people how to feel and post is kinda silly.  That is NEVER going to work.  THink about that.  

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No problems posting them or any map. They should all be posted because even fantasy runs are plenty useful in the thought algorithm. Using a 120+ hour map to make your final call with emotions attached and not accepting anything less? That's masochism man! 

This part. I think avoiding this emotional pitfall is key to ingesting these snowmaps in a healthy way. Don't start fantasizing when ya see them at 120+ hours--nip that in the bud and toss the pretty pinks aside as a non-reality. Otherwise...you WILL start to get attached subconsciously even when you logically know it's far from bejng set in stone. So I guess it's a bit of a mental discipline thing, lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

Thank you! I would love nothing more than for the models to just do a complete reverse right now and just give the whole forum the shellacking they were showing on Friday. It would do wonders for the morale in here. Power of positive thinking I suppose....

I think the point that should be made is that we'd still root for you even if the storm wasn't for us. It's more the people who talk shit on the others when the storm hasn't even happened yet (that guy in richmond is a fine example), meanwhile the north/west crew doesn't usually do that in the inverse. You guys have had some really nice events out there this year and in some other years as well. Relative to climo in the last several years, I'd say you've done better than CMD. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I wouldn’t count on a reversal and things get better for us, but hey at least the Eagles won the Super Bowl. 

See now you're getting it! 

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

See now you're getting it! 

But not the snow  

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@AlexD1990 my non Ass response... the mid atlantic forum is too freaking large geographically.  Look at the other forums, NYC metro and Philly have their own... there is one just for PA but its really become central and western PA and the southern part is in ours and the eastern is in Philly.  

The geographic area "mid atlantic" is too big to have a producting regional discussion about the weather.  There is almost no chance, for example, a snowstorm that crushes the southeast parts of the "Mid atlantic" even gives me flurries up here on the northern edge of the mid atlantic.  And frankly I am NOT even the northern edge of the actual mid atlantic as most definitions of that include PA.  But I am the northern edge of this forums arbitrary geography.  The point is the weather differences between Hagerstown MD and Va Beach are way too ridiculous to be in the same thread.  They are screaming YES this is awesome for the same run that makes us want to dive off a cliff.  And you can't pretend this is 100% science and not emotional.  Frankly this thread even restricted to the DC centric area is still difficult as MOST storms wont affect us all equally...my biggest snow this year skunked most of this thread and their two biggest snows fringed me.  But at least the storms affect us.  Some systems that affect parts of the larger regions dont affect us at all.  

So we have to have sub regional threads within this way too large geographic sub forum imo.  And telling the people how to feel and post is kinda silly.  That is NEVER going to work.  THink about that.  

I'm not trying to tell anyone how to post. I guess I'm just lashing out in frustration too because the elitism tends to rub me the wrong way. I try to overlook it a lot, but the fact that I'm about to get fringed from this damn thing too is probably making me more irksome than I would normally be. Thanks for the well thought out post, I agree with everything you said.

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@AlexD1990 my non Ass response... the mid atlantic forum is too freaking large geographically.  Look at the other forums, NYC metro and Philly have their own... there is one just for PA but its really become central and western PA and the southern part is in ours and the eastern is in Philly.  

The geographic area "mid atlantic" is too big to have a producting regional discussion about the weather.  There is almost no chance, for example, a snowstorm that crushes the southeast parts of the "Mid atlantic" even gives me flurries up here on the northern edge of the mid atlantic.  And frankly I am NOT even the northern edge of the actual mid atlantic as most definitions of that include PA.  But I am the northern edge of this forums arbitrary geography.  The point is the weather differences between Hagerstown MD and Va Beach are way too ridiculous to be in the same thread.  They are screaming YES this is awesome for the same run that makes us want to dive off a cliff.  And you can't pretend this is 100% science and not emotional.  Frankly this thread even restricted to the DC centric area is still difficult as MOST storms wont affect us all equally...my biggest snow this year skunked most of this thread and their two biggest snows fringed me.  But at least the storms affect us.  Some systems that affect parts of the larger regions dont affect us at all.  

So we have to have sub regional threads within this way too large geographic sub forum imo.  And telling the people how to feel and post is kinda silly.  That is NEVER going to work.  THink about that.  

 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

See now you're getting it! 

 Not getting suckered back in on this one unless EURO goes way north....

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

But not the snow  

Sorry 

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I think the point that should be made is that we'd still root for you even if the storm wasn't for us. It's more the people who talk shit on the others when the storm hasn't even happened yet (that guy in richmond is a fine example), meanwhile the north/west crew doesn't usually do that in the inverse. You guys have had some really nice events out there this year and in some other years as well. Relative to climo in the last several years, I'd say you've done better than CMD. 

I hope that's the case because I've seen a lot of people on here. Pretty much say exactly the opposite that they would root against us. I know my climo. I know that most of the storms I'm going to get an inch of slop and then 40° rain if I even get the inch of slop to begin with. Wow! You guys are posting ob's thread posts with 28° and ripping fatties. But I don't wish you ill will because of it. Weather is going to weather. That being said, thank you for saying that you would root for the other areas.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'm not trying to tell anyone how to post. I guess I'm just lashing out in frustration too because the elitism tends to rub me the wrong way. I try to overlook it a lot, but the fact that I'm about to get fringed from this damn thing too is probably making me more irksome than I would normally be. Thanks for the well thought out post, I agree with everything you said.

I only said what I said because that guys post was kinda ridiculous and hostile right off the bat.  You probably could have made the point in a better way and I wouldn't have been that way.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

If the models bring this storm back it will be by far the most unhinged thing they’ve ever done. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Plot turn: as these things happen at or below our latitude less and less frequently it makes missing each opportunity even more catastrophic 

Double plot turn: there was genuine concern that these patterns might have gone extinct post 2016. That talking point popped up a lot especially within the last 5 years.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

I hope that's the case because I've seen a lot of people on here. Pretty much say exactly the opposite that they would root against us. I know my climo. I know that most of the storms I'm going to get an inch of slop and then 40° rain if I even get the inch of slop to begin with. Wow! You guys are posting ob's thread posts with 28° and ripping fatties. But I don't wish you ill will because of it. Weather is going to weather. That being said, thank you for saying that you would root for the other areas.

I think at a high level we just have to know our backyard's climo. Everything is relative to that. It does explain why someone whos just around or north of Baltimore like a few folks here have been in an extended rut while south, east, and northwest of them has done a fair bit better. The 6" snowstorm drought for some in here is very extensive, while your area has 2 of those this season. It being an anomalous set of outcomes in the bigger picture makes recency theory rear its ugly head. 

[dailylurker]

Not to bragg, but I 100% nailed this winter forecast back in Oct. I'll bump the post when things cool down a bit lol

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I only said what I said because that guys post was kinda ridiculous and hostile right off the bat.  You probably could have made the point in a better way and I wouldn't have been that way.  

I probably feel a little overprotective of the group of posters that live on the Delmarva. Certainly not my place to be their defender but I guess I tried to be anyway. Just reminds me of when I was a kid on these forums back in the days of wright weather, and Eastern, when I would be told to shut up and enjoy my rain. So maybe it was a little triggered

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I think at a high level we just have to know our backyard's climo. Everything is relative to that. It does explain why someone whos just around or north of Baltimore like a few folks here have been in an extended rut while south, east, and northwest of them has done a fair bit better. The 6" snowstorm drought for some in here is very extensive, while your area has 2 of those this season. It being an anomalous set of outcomes in the bigger picture makes recency theory rear its ugly head. 

Well said!

[TJ]

Let's Go GFS!!

[DDweatherman]

I think the ICON looks a bit better for the SE folks thru 54hours. 

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If the models bring this storm back it will be by far the most unhinged thing they’ve ever done. 

It's not too late to get at least 6". I've experienced Mets having to up their totals DURING a storm. Models could say 0 and you end up with 3. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

It's not too late to get at least 6". I've experienced Mets having to up their totals DURING a storm. Models could say 0 and you end up with 3. 

That happened in southern PA near me the other day. GFS showed a few inches a few runs, then a few other models, but really most had 0 at game time...had almost 2" and it was snowing heavily at 30 degrees. 

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If the models bring this storm back it will be by far the most unhinged thing they’ve ever done. 

They would have to update the definition of “windshield wipering”

[aldie 22]

Didn't someone say that the storm was coming on shore last night or this morning? Seems reasonable to think that it may probably do something silly on this afternoons runs...good bad or ugly

[mappy]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Didn't someone say that the storm was coming on shore last night or this morning? Seems reasonable to think that it may probably do something silly on this afternoons runs...good bad or ugly

Justin Berk mentioned it this morning.