FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

[Scraff]

I know I’m typing to a group of zombies here at this point, but If anyone cares to keep just a flicker of hope alive, from Justin Berk:

 

“It is Presidents Week, and historically, half of our top 25 snowstorms fall this time of year. So when the computer guidance pointed us to a major storm, it was easy to believe.

That winter storm has had a trend on many models farther south to even miss much of Maryland and PA… My hesitation is that the full energy from the Pacific Ocean is not ingested into the modeling yet. It will today. So if there are any more blips in the projected development and track, they will show up today.

I need to emphasize and consider that weather events that did miss this winter have had one thing in common: They verified farther north than models forecasted. Yes, the prime events did hit south of Baltimore, but the misses were plots too far south. There is a bias to push cold air in too soon AND to push it too far south.

Here is what is weird AND NOT wish-casting…. The Euro and Canadian have it missing south, while the American Models GFS and NAM 12K keep it closer.  

The current Euro looks similar to what the GFS did last week. So, is it leading the charge with something now? I also need to point out that a few weeks ago, the Euro had been too far south, and the GFS beat it. I made sure to acknowledge this in my storm report, so all bets are not off.

The model run this morning should include the needed energy.  By mid-day, I will personally have a better idea if this will be a hit or miss and make my first call”.

 

[jvash]

Haven’t seen enough blame here thrown at Jim Cantore for announcing he’s coming to DC for this one 

Oh. I was trying to figure out what happened. This explains everything.


.

[jvash]

It’s ok guys 12z is going to be huge!
 
 

 
For Georgia 

My niece is still mad at me for stealing her storm back in January. Maybe she’ll forgive me now.


.

[midatlanticweather]

 

Nope! 

[paxpatriot]

21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s ok guys 12z is going to be huge!

 

 

 

For Georgia 

I remember when the ICON shifted 200 miles south on Saturday morning and I joked this might be an Atlanta/Savannah storm before it was over.

 

Sometimes I hate myself.

[Imgoinhungry]

What was the first model to sniff out south trend? Icon!?


.

[Mikeymac5306]

 

[psuhoffman]

10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The only good from this is that these things can still work out at and below our latitude.

Plot turn: as these things happen at or below our latitude less and less frequently it makes missing each opportunity even more catastrophic 

[snowmagnet]

11 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I know I’m typing to a group of zombies here at this point, but If anyone cares to keep just a flicker of hope alive, from Justin Berk:

 

“It is Presidents Week, and historically, half of our top 25 snowstorms fall this time of year. So when the computer guidance pointed us to a major storm, it was easy to believe.

That winter storm has had a trend on many models farther south to even miss much of Maryland and PA… My hesitation is that the full energy from the Pacific Ocean is not ingested into the modeling yet. It will today. So if there are any more blips in the projected development and track, they will show up today.

I need to emphasize and consider that weather events that did miss this winter have had one thing in common: They verified farther north than models forecasted. Yes, the prime events did hit south of Baltimore, but the misses were plots too far south. There is a bias to push cold air in too soon AND to push it too far south.

Here is what is weird AND NOT wish-casting…. The Euro and Canadian have it missing south, while the American Models GFS and NAM 12K keep it closer.  

The current Euro looks similar to what the GFS did last week. So, is it leading the charge with something now? I also need to point out that a few weeks ago, the Euro had been too far south, and the GFS beat it. I made sure to acknowledge this in my storm report, so all bets are not off.

The model run this morning should include the needed energy.  By mid-day, I will personally have a better idea if this will be a hit or miss and make my first call”.

 

Thanks for sharing. I follow Justin and haven’t read FB yet today. 

[WVsnowlover]

Oh well... I'm ready for Spring now

[AlexD1990]

The new march 2001? At least it wasnt 12 hours before this time.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

The new march 2001? At least it wasnt 12 hours before this time.

Or I'm standing there waiting for the first flakes and it's rain. I've got LOTS of funny bust stories. Yes, funny. Life is to short to let this get anyone down. 

[Fozz]

From now on, any mention of Feb 2025 will have that same feeling of dread that comes up when anyone brings up March 2001, December 2010 or March 2013.

[WVsnowlover]

11 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What was the first model to sniff out south trend? Icon!?


.

After all models were on board for a region wide big snow, the 12z CMC on Saturday was the first to make a major jump. That run took me from 20" to 4".

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Plot turn: as these things happen at or below our latitude less and less frequently it makes missing each opportunity even more catastrophic 

It might be healthier if we don't go there, lol And actually...here's another plot turn: The first year in awhile (9 years?) that we didn't have a deeply negative PDO (but rather slightly negative) we also had our best opportunities...so maybe that means we'll have more opportunities if it is indeed flipping? 

[weathercoins]

When I was in second grade (maybe 1997?)  I had my birthday party at WBAL when Justin Berk worked there and it was so cool for a little weather nerd like me (he even put me on the weather broadcast) so I still love Justin Berk’s posts, even when they’re obviously wishcasting

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

@psuhoffmanis that your your alter ego in the comments?

Funny I just looked and he didn’t reply to that thread lol. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Funny I just looked and he didn’t reply to that thread lol. 

Hot take 

[wasnow215]

17 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What was the first model to sniff out south trend? Icon!?


.

CMC?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Thread is getting good now lol.

be honest who’s peeking at those 12z runs

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Thread is getting good now lol.

be honest who’s peeking at those 12z runs

I’ll be here for it. I didn’t cliff dive yet. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

But I was told it was happening  

Eagles won the Super Bowl 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Thread is getting good now lol.

be honest who’s peeking at those 12z runs

I check the models in July why wouldn't i check them in mid February

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAM is running. Let's do this.

[AlexD1990]

It would be hilarious if just this once the models came back. Twisted, but hilarious. For everyone's mental health, I hope it happens. Good luck all

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eagles won the Super Bowl 

And it didn’t snow  

[pazzo83]

guys this is NOTHING like March 2001.

[keviepoo]

https://music.apple.com/us/album/shes-gone/332663733?i=332663881

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It might be healthier if we don't go there, lol And actually...here's another plot turn: The first year in awhile (9 years?) that we didn't have a deeply negative PDO (but rather slightly negative) we also had our best opportunities...so maybe that means we'll have more opportunities if it is indeed flipping? 

No when things are bad I’m not a blow smoke up your ass rainbows and sunshine kinda person.  When my team loses in the playoffs I don’t say “there’s always next year”. “Ya and the odds of us winning are no better, actually they’re worse we could suffer injuries and not even make the playoffs”.  And I’m not that way with snow. You have no idea when the next opportunity with this good a setup comes along. We don’t know yet if the PDO is actually flipping. We might not get another shot like this for 5 years. Next year we could get another 2020 Or 2023 type winter!  DCA only beats climo 1-2 times a decade. What if this was that good winter and we just got unlucky and missed our chance and now we have 6 more awful dreg years to suffer through before we get another!  
 

Im not who you come to for comfort if you need to see the bright side. Im a dose of reality good or bad. When it’s bad I dive into that lake of misery and swim in it. I cleanse myself in the fire through pain and suffering. And I come out the other side hardened and ready to go to battle again and take on whatever shit tomorrow has to throw at me. 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No when things are bad I’m not a blow smoke up your ass rainbows and sunshine kinda person.  When my team loses in the playoffs I don’t say “there’s always next year”. “Ya and the odds of us winning are no better, actually they’re worse we could suffer injuries and not even make the playoffs”.  And I’m not that way with snow. You have no idea when the next opportunity with this good a setup comes along. We don’t know yet if the PDO is actually flipping. We might not get another shot like this for 5 years. Next year we could get another 2020 Or 2023 type winter!  DCA only beats climo 1-2 times a decade. What if this was that good winter and we just got unlucky and missed our chance and now we have 6 more awful dreg years to suffer through before we get another!  
 

Im not who you come to for comfort if you need to see the bright side. Im a dose of reality good or bad. When it’s bad I dive into that lake of misery and swim in it. I cleanse myself in the fire through pain and lowery. And I come out the other side hardened and ready to go to battle again and take on whatever shit tomorrow has to throw at me.