high risk Posted Thursday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:33 PM 1 hour ago, Interstate said: Well since no model had anything on it for a few days... I was wondering why they even posted a WWA anyways. That’s not even remotely true. Several models yesterday had a band of light snow moving through the area this morning. It’s a real thing, but it’s just too light. Even if it ended up not working out, LWX doesn’t make up advisories out of nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM 5 minutes ago, high risk said: That’s not even remotely true. Several models yesterday had a band of light snow moving through the area this morning. It’s a real thing, but it’s just too light. Even if it ended up not working out, LWX doesn’t make up advisories out of nothing. The issue was extremely dry air east of the blue ridge and north of 29. Not sure that was foreseen, but I think a lot of precip evaporated before reaching the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM Low of 5, currently 10 degrees. Woke up to a coating of snow and has been very light snow all morning. Best flake size now with some small dendrites mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted Thursday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:41 PM 6 minutes ago, high risk said: That’s not even remotely true. Several models yesterday had a band of light snow moving through the area this morning. It’s a real thing, but it’s just too light. Even if it ended up not working out, LWX doesn’t make up advisories out of nothing. A lot of modeling had the accumulated precip west of the metros though. But let’s be real, they issued it as a cover your ass advisory because it was potentially close to rush hour. If it was something that was overnight, it likely would not have been issued. Having said that, in my opinion, one of those special weather statements saying “a potential hazardous weather situation has a 30-50% chance of materializing” things would have been more appropriate for this case. Nothing was really showing up to 1” potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:42 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: The issue was extremely dry air east of the blue ridge and north of 29. Not sure that was foreseen, but I think a lot of precip evaporated before reaching the ground. Agreed. The NAM Nest had the band falling apart as it moved east, which was a clue that the scenario shown by some of the other CAMs wouldn’t play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:43 PM I have a good feeling about 0z tonight 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Thursday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:44 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: I have a good feeling about 0z tonight PSU storm swing #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM 24 minutes ago, mappy said: Flurries Norrisville gonna pull out a 0.5” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:56 PM So my analog identification didn't fail...my imagination did. During my crusade to show that "not a single remotely similar setup to this produced a significant snowstorm for Richmond or the Delmarva I failed to entertain the possibility that guidance was still correcting south and it would end up a VA Tidewater and Eastern NC snowstorm. The analogs DID fit several of VA Beach and the Outer Banks biggest snows. This storm would not have been identified in my efforts to find a comp because at that time every model was showing a big snowstorm for Richmond to S NJ so I looked at every 8" snow at Richmond and Salisbury...but this ended up well below that level for those locations. Had I pulled up 8" snows for VA beach and Elizabeth City NC I would have found very good comps and I immediately did as soon as I looked at that set. Analogs did win out over models...just in the opposite direction from what I had thought! The premise being a strong upper level feature crossing through the Midwest, Ohio and PA is not going to produce a major snowstorm for central VA and the Delmarva. There are two possible outcomes with that track of a strong ULL...either it causes a phased storm which will end up north...and likely we would be on the southern edge of heavy snow with such a storm and the max would be NW of us.... or its going to not phase and the ULL will act as a suppressive feature and whatever wave there is will track way way south of us. I was not open to the idea it would end up as suppressed as it did at the time so I failed to see the correct outcome. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Norrisville gonna pull out a 0.5” Probably. Dusting achieved. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM Been getting flurries and veiled sun in Columbia the last 30 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Thursday at 04:03 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:03 PM Actual light snow in Pikesville. I may get a dusting. WWA back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Thursday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:05 PM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So my analog identification didn't fail...my imagination did. During my crusade to show that "not a single remotely similar setup to this produced a significant snowstorm for Richmond or the Delmarva I failed to entertain the possibility that guidance was still correcting south and it would end up a VA Tidewater and Eastern NC snowstorm. The analogs DID fit several of VA Beach and the Outer Banks biggest snows. This storm would not have been identified in my efforts to find a comp because at that time every model was showing a big snowstorm for Richmond to S NJ so I looked at every 8" snow at Richmond and Salisbury...but this ended up well below that level for those locations. Had I pulled up 8" snows for VA beach and Elizabeth City NC I would have found very good comps and I immediately did as soon as I looked at that set. Analogs did win out over models...just in the opposite direction from what I had thought! The premise being a strong upper level feature crossing through the Midwest, Ohio and PA is not going to produce a major snowstorm for central VA and the Delmarva. There are two possible outcomes with that track of a strong ULL...either it causes a phased storm which will end up north...and likely we would be on the southern edge of heavy snow with such a storm and the max would be NW of us.... or its going to not phase and the ULL will act as a suppressive feature and whatever wave there is will track way way south of us. I was not open to the idea it would end up as suppressed as it did at the time so I failed to see the correct outcome. So in the end did the models H5 also adjusted to the surface instead of the otherway around too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Thursday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:05 PM My nephew sent a few pics from the snow magnet of Va Beach. Right around 10" per the ruler. They absolutely dominated this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Thursday at 04:05 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:05 PM Actually sticking to the pavement in my parking lot, I'll take that as a win. Good thing i have my snow tires on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:15 PM 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: So in the end did the models H5 also adjusted to the surface instead of the otherway around too? no the surface adjusted to the H5, but it did so in the opposite way than I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted Thursday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:23 PM light snow and sunshine, 22/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted Thursday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:27 PM 2 hours ago, stormy said: Another .35" snow this morning, 7 - 9. Roads covered again . 16 degrees Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted Thursday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:45 PM Flurries. Must have come down harder for a few minutes because I have a light dusting on sidewalk and it stuck to the street in spots as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Thursday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:46 PM Sunshine flurries! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:58 PM Had a snow shower for about 10 minutes. The return on my model watching investment has been abysmal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted Thursday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:59 PM Same here in Greenspring Valley. Sidewalks and driveway caved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:09 PM 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: So my analog identification didn't fail...my imagination did. During my crusade to show that "not a single remotely similar setup to this produced a significant snowstorm for Richmond or the Delmarva I failed to entertain the possibility that guidance was still correcting south and it would end up a VA Tidewater and Eastern NC snowstorm. The analogs DID fit several of VA Beach and the Outer Banks biggest snows. This storm would not have been identified in my efforts to find a comp because at that time every model was showing a big snowstorm for Richmond to S NJ so I looked at every 8" snow at Richmond and Salisbury...but this ended up well below that level for those locations. Had I pulled up 8" snows for VA beach and Elizabeth City NC I would have found very good comps and I immediately did as soon as I looked at that set. Analogs did win out over models...just in the opposite direction from what I had thought! The premise being a strong upper level feature crossing through the Midwest, Ohio and PA is not going to produce a major snowstorm for central VA and the Delmarva. There are two possible outcomes with that track of a strong ULL...either it causes a phased storm which will end up north...and likely we would be on the southern edge of heavy snow with such a storm and the max would be NW of us.... or its going to not phase and the ULL will act as a suppressive feature and whatever wave there is will track way way south of us. I was not open to the idea it would end up as suppressed as it did at the time so I failed to see the correct outcome. HM also thought like you. He believed in a Northern Mid-Atlantic SECS to a MECS. Weather is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:10 PM It's never snowed this hard with the sun still visible as right now here or back in MD. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Thursday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:26 PM Getting some moderate bursts with really nice flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted Thursday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:35 PM 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Shut off like a switch. 1.8" yesterday and 1.8" today. 2 completely different experiences but hit 3.6" total. Blue sky is in the distance. Should be good photo ops here shortly. I'm not really that close to climo. 9.3" on the season and modern climo maps tag this elevated area with 13" around smith mtn. I still give this winter a B-B+ grade based mostly on the feels. Multiple cold events, plenty of snow cover days, and lots of fun tracking. If i can hit 13" it's an A-. Below norm DJF with multiple events it's not normal or average. It's pretty rare. We pulled a 2 yesterday and 1.5 this AM up here in Forest. Fine high ratio powder this AM that melted at the first crack of sun. 3.5 total not too shabby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM 21 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Getting some moderate bursts with really nice flakes. It’s very squall-y in nature. Bursts of heavy snow, sun, back to snow. Not amounting to a thing but guess it’s nice to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Thursday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:04 PM 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Better than ANYTHING yesterday lol. I'll clear and inch on this round easy. Might be there already. 15-20:1 stuff. Man I love upper level action. Reminds me of my Colorado years It was high ratio fluff for sure. Added an inch to my 2” yesterday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Thursday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:29 PM Winston-Salem got over 1.5” today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Thursday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:51 PM Awesome day at Wisp. Bands of heavy snow and great conditions. Cold af though 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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