Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM 17 minutes ago, bncho said: I don't know what crack NWS is on but I sure as hell DO NOT have a 2% chance of 8". Jan 25, 2000 had a similar arctic block as this.. remember, the AO is about -5 right now. When it's this cold, Im currently at 19F, storms do have a higher percentage to bust high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:36 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:36 AM Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Jan 25, 2000 had a similar arctic block as this.. remember, the AO is about -5 right now. When it's this cold, Im currently at 19F, storms do have a higher percentage to bust high. Why you F'ing with them like this? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:37 AM 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Jan 25, 2000 had a similar arctic block as this.. remember, the AO is about -5 right now. When it's this cold, Im currently at 19F, storms do have a higher percentage to bust high. this is you right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:37 AM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why you F'ing with them like this? lol 1/50 chance.. run this through 50 times at it goes 8"+ once? Maybe not, but I have seen -AO come north at the last minute. Maybe a 0.5% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM This http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html and I know that event missed down here...it was CLOSE here I got like an inch but missed some places that got 8" just northeast of me. But this ULL is crossing further south...so if something like that were to happen it would be further south this time. I am NOT saying its likely. Its not. 99/100 times that will NOT happen. But that was totally unpredicted and unforseen and some places got 10" that had flurries in the forecast a few hours before. Yea I got a few inches just few miles SE of me got 8-10” was nuts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM 29 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Anyone looking at the radar, it looks juicy out W. You must be new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol Interesting you brought that up. It was early February and Manchester pulled of 3-4 inches out of a rogue band late at night. My house was just built here and I came up from Reisterstown the next morning. When I arrived it was a solid 3 on the ground. Hampstead got maybe an inch. The cutoff was very similar to January 19th storm this year. Once you it went south of us and got to Walmart amounts drastically decreased. Seems to be something about that first ridge heading north on 30 leaving Walmart as the cutoff often. The band faded heading south so by the time it got to Reisterstown it only snowed about a half inch. It was definitely from that storm that hit Lancaster area with 10 inches from the connective bands. It was like a weird inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:42 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:42 AM 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Interesting you brought that up. It was early February and Manchester pulled of 3-4 inches out of a rogue band late at night. My house was just built here and I came up from Reisterstown the next morning. When I arrived it was a solid 3 on the ground. Hampstead got maybe an inch. The cutoff was very similar to January 19th storm this year. Once you it went south of us and got to Walmart amounts drastically decreased. Seems to be something about that first ridge heading north on 30 leaving Walmart as the cutoff often. The band faded heading south so by the time it got to Reisterstown it only snowed about a half inch. It was definitely from that storm that hit Lancaster area with 10 inches from the connective bands. It was like a weird inverted trough. I think some of that snow was actually from another small event a couple days before that...then maybe 1-2" was from the ULL thing the night before. We had a lot of minor snows that year...it was soooo annoying...really cold for a lot of that winter but just couldn't get any storm to jack us. One of my least favorite winters ever. Kinda similar to this one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM The simple answer is the ULL is acting like a kicker instead of a pinwheel to amplify the flow in front of it. Bob pointed it out a few days ago and I didn't want to see it. The ULL got "too much" of the TPV cold pool and its acting like a PV not an ULL. Too much of a good thing... we don't expect to get a snowstorm with a TPV sitting over Ohio...if you want to think about it that way. Had the ULL that broke off from the main TPV been a little less overpowering we probably are getting a MECS this week. Yikes. In other word a miracle thst we screwed this up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: this is you right now lol I see a lot of -PNA in our future Actually maybe this is the kind of pattern that will stick around next Winter. Lately they have been coming in pairs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM 13 minutes ago, Ji said: How is this missing ushttps://x.com/_jwall/status/1892036767903068239?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Get the confluence about 150 miles northeast and we'd phase the sheet out of that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:49 AM When looking at medium/long term guidance... realize that the H5 anomaly for our biggest storms, or 8"+ storms, has just as strong of an anomaly over the eastern Pacific, 50/50 low region, and west-based -NAO (extending toward the Hudson Bay)... I was pointing out that we only had 1/3 areas for this storm, and just having a trough under a block without Pacific or Atlantic help leads to more margin of error as you progress toward the event. Those 3 other N. Hemisphere anomalies are a big deal for us getting a major snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Keep it in mind. We could have done it for this storm, but it was more of a threading the needle situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Wednesday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:50 AM 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Get the confluence about 150 miles northeast and we'd phase the sheet out of that thing. So, there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:52 AM Get the confluence about 150 miles northeast and we'd phase the sheet out of that thing.We just need the models to be off at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Wednesday at 02:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:54 AM 1 minute ago, Ji said: We just need the models to be off at this point I did my homework just in case they aren't wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:57 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:57 AM 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: lol I see a lot of -PNA in our future Actually maybe this is the kind of pattern that will stick around next Winter. Lately they have been coming in pairs.. I think we got enough -PNA the last 5 years for the rest of my life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 02:57 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:57 AM DT : “*ALERT* YES THE 0z NAM DID NOT PRODUCE LIKE I EXPECTED. ITS BS- the 06z WILL SHOW WHY MY FINAL CALL MAP IS THE MOST ACCURATE MID ATLANTIC SNOW MAP. LOCAL STATIONS WILL GET ON BOARD. 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Wednesday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:58 AM 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think some of that snow was actually from another small event a couple days before that...then maybe 1-2" was from the ULL thing the night before. We had a lot of minor snows that year...it was soooo annoying...really cold for a lot of that winter but just couldn't get any storm to jack us. One of my least favorite winters ever. Kinda similar to this one lol Do you remember that rogue band a Saturday night in February during the dismal 2012 winter? A front went through earlier in the day with some snow showers then a weak fading squall line. After that pushed through there was nothing until later that night when it started snowing. Hardly anything on radar and we got like 2-3 inches in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Wednesday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 AM Obviously the chance of a complete short term model bust is like 0.1%, but curious if anybody who’s better at reading maps sees anything of note when comparing what models show to current 500mb/h5 obs. Particularly in regards to the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 AM 1 minute ago, RVAman said: DT : “*ALERT* YES THE 0z NAM DID NOT PRODUCE LIKE I EXPECTED. ITS BS- the 06z WILL SHOW WHY MY FINAL CALL MAP IS THE MOST ACCURATE MID ATLANTIC SNOW MAP. LOCAL STATIONS WILL GET ON BOARD. This is satire fyi. Believable though yeah? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 03:00 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:00 AM 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Do you remember that rogue band a Saturday night in February during the dismal 2012 winter? A front went through earlier in the day with some snow showers then a weak fading squall line. After that pushed through there was nothing until later that night when it started snowing. Hardly anything on radar and we got like 2-3 inches in a couple hours. If it's the storm I am thinking of it was February 2013, a saturday night yes, and we got like 3.5" in about an hour from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: DT : “*ALERT* YES THE 0z NAM DID NOT PRODUCE LIKE I EXPECTED. ITS BS- the 06z WILL SHOW WHY MY FINAL CALL MAP IS THE MOST ACCURATE MID ATLANTIC SNOW MAP. LOCAL STATIONS WILL GET ON BOARD. In the spirit of this thread.....my man! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM DT : “*ALERT* YES THE 0z NAM DID NOT PRODUCE LIKE I EXPECTED. ITS BS- the 06z WILL SHOW WHY MY FINAL CALL MAP IS THE MOST ACCURATE MID ATLANTIC SNOW MAP. LOCAL STATIONS WILL GET ON BOARD. Oy lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Wednesday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:03 AM 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Do you remember that rogue band a Saturday night in February during the dismal 2012 winter? A front went through earlier in the day with some snow showers then a weak fading squall line. After that pushed through there was nothing until later that night when it started snowing. Hardly anything on radar and we got like 2-3 inches in a couple hours. I know there was one event that caught everyone off-guard. The roads weren't treated, it was below freezing and there was like 1 inch of snow that froze instantly on the roads. Took people hours to get home. Kids from school got home at like 6pm. It was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 03:07 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:07 AM 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Obviously the chance of a complete short term model bust is like 0.1%, but curious if anybody who’s better at reading maps sees anything of note when comparing what models show to current 500mb/h5 obs. Particularly in regards to the ULL nothing good...see all the convection exploding down in the gulf...that's NOT what we want...the flow is not amplified enough to get a storm up the coast that starts out way off the southeast coast...what we needed, was to see the precip associated with the wave along the front up in the TN valley amplifying. If we were going to get some big shocker one of 2 things had to happen...the models had to be totally wrong about that gulf wave starving the TN valley wave of moisture inflow and have that TN valley wave amplify unexpectedly some and maybe down the line that pulls things further north with a better energy transfer point. That is now dead. The only show left now would be for somehow there to be an unforseen phase and the storm to bomb up the coast Jan 2000 style. Good luck with that, we got our once a century bust like that already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:08 AM I honestly thing our best chance at a surprise snow now is something crazy with the ULL pass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Wednesday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:10 AM 6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I know there was one event that caught everyone off-guard. The roads weren't treated, it was below freezing and there was like 1 inch of snow that froze instantly on the roads. Took people hours to get home. Kids from school got home at like 6pm. It was crazy. 1/20/2016 iirc. Smallest accum snow event to shut down the roads probably ever. It was like an inch and people slept in cars lol. A week later was better though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Wednesday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:10 AM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If it's the storm I am thinking of it was February 2013, a saturday night yes, and we got like 3.5" in about an hour from it. I remember the Saturday in 2013. Wasn't that the one with heavy wet snow? I think it was pretty warm that afternoon before it snowed. The one I'm talking about was another Saturday in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 03:11 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:11 AM 10 minutes ago, RVAman said: This is satire fyi. Believable though yeah? Thought it was legit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Wednesday at 03:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:12 AM 8 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I know there was one event that caught everyone off-guard. The roads weren't treated, it was below freezing and there was like 1 inch of snow that froze instantly on the roads. Took people hours to get home. Kids from school got home at like 6pm. It was crazy. I remember there was something like you described a couple days before the 2016 Blizzard but that was mainly around DC. Definitely remember hearing about kids stuck on busses from only an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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