LongRanger Posted Wednesday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:39 AM Come out, Virginia, don't let me wait You snow-holic girls start much too late Aw, but sooner or later, it comes down to fate This might as well be the one 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Wednesday at 01:45 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:45 AM 1 hour ago, RVAman said: 6-8" for me... sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Wednesday at 01:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:47 AM 2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: 6-8" for me... sure If I get 3 inches in Reston I’ll take 5 of you to Ruth’s Chris for steaks! 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Wednesday at 01:49 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:49 AM 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: If I get 3 inches in Reston I’ll take 5 of you to Ruth’s Chris for steaks! Holding you to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Wednesday at 01:51 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:51 AM 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: If I get 3 inches in Reston I’ll take 5 of you to Ruth’s Chris for steaks! I would prefer Hooters. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Wednesday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:52 AM 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: I would prefer Hooters. You make a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Wednesday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:56 AM 7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Holding you to that... You’re on! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted Wednesday at 01:58 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:58 AM Here comes the 00z NAM tease 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Here comes the 00z NAM tease Mood flakes up to DC would be a nice little win 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Wednesday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:03 AM 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mood flakes up to DC would be a nice little win Hail Mary surprisingly didn't come through. Might get some flurries 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:04 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 4 more north jogs like 18z to 00z and we get like 3-4"... just taking it slow. I was never out on this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:05 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:05 AM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 4 more north jogs like 18z to 00z and we get like 3-4"... just taking it slow. I was never out on this storm actually probably just 1 more would do it... in a universe where the 12k nam is also right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:08 AM long range HRRR T-1" for folks largely Thursday morning as the last of the energy swings through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:09 AM I brought down snow totals about 15% on the day shift forecast today for the Tidewater. Still a decent event, but I’m wary of their snow ratios for this one. That area doesn’t exactly have great climo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:10 AM I gotta say - the NWS 1-in-10 chance for this storm is a trip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 02:17 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:17 AM 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I gotta say - the NWS 1-in-10 chance for this storm is a trip I don't know what crack NWS is on but I sure as hell DO NOT have a 2% chance of 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Just now, bncho said: I don't know what crack NWS is on but I sure as hell DO NOT have a 2% chance of 8". You do have a 98% chance of not getting 8 inches however. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:19 AM Just now, BristowWx said: You do have a 98% chance of not getting 8 inches however. when you put it like that it sounds a little more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Wednesday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:23 AM Well this would be a nice little treat, I suppose. Better than cloudy wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Just now, StormyClearweather said: Well this would be a nice little treat, I suppose. Better than cloudy wind. And Kuchera ratios are 14 to 15:1. More like 16:1 in PSU land. Watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Wednesday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:27 AM Anyone looking at the radar, it looks juicy out W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:28 AM Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Anyone looking at the radar, it looks juicy out W. And here we go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol Was that the inverted trough event? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Actually, I've become that guy in the weather center who was dismissing me back in January 2000 when I was trying to get him to look at a WV loop and show him "somethings not right" and he was just not interested saying "the models are not going to be that wrong 24 hours out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Wednesday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:30 AM Just now, psuhoffman said: And here we go Meant to post that in RIC thread but still looks good though…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:32 AM He’s one of us. Excuse him. GET BACK TO THE THREAD CONWAY! QUICK!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:32 AM 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Was that the inverted trough event? . This http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/03-Feb-09.html and I know that event missed down here...it was CLOSE here I got like an inch but missed some places that got 8" just northeast of me. But this ULL is crossing further south...so if something like that were to happen it would be further south this time. I am NOT saying its likely. Its not. 99/100 times that will NOT happen. But that was totally unpredicted and unforseen and some places got 10" that had flurries in the forecast a few hours before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:32 AM Back in 2009 (which was one of my top analogs to this season and similarly cold but not too snowy) I think it was...there was a situation where we were tracking a threat at a big coastal phased with a cut off ULL for a few days...and it failed...but then some places not too far away from here up in southern PA got like 10" of snow in a few hours from convective bands that set up as the h5 low came through. Just bringing that up. lol How is this missing ushttps://x.com/_jwall/status/1892036767903068239?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM Just now, Ji said: How is this missing ushttps://x.com/_jwall/status/1892036767903068239?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA The simple answer is the ULL is acting like a kicker instead of a pinwheel to amplify the flow in front of it. Bob pointed it out a few days ago and I didn't want to see it. The ULL got "too much" of the TPV cold pool and its acting like a PV not an ULL. Too much of a good thing... we don't expect to get a snowstorm with a TPV sitting over Ohio...if you want to think about it that way. Had the ULL that broke off from the main TPV been a little less overpowering we probably are getting a MECS this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now