Grothar of Herndon Posted Tuesday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:54 PM 23 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Fwiw They must be using the new CVS model! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Tuesday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:58 PM 3 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: They must be using the new CVS model! Don't knock it -- I hear the CVS-Hi-Res nailed the temps in Augusta County this afternoon while the NAM was 10 degrees under actuals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM Just for prosperity. The run that the NAM completely caved, hard. Epically collapsed. As we all knew it would. It wasn't going to be incremental lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPL Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Just for prosperity. The run that the NAM completely caved, hard. Epically collapsed. As we all knew it would. It wasn't going to be incremental lol. From 18 inches of snow just below the DE line to 5 in one run. That takes skill from a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Just now, JPL said: From 18 inches of snow just below the DE line to 5 in one run. That takes skill from a model. Or the antithesis of skill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPL Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Or the antithesis of skill Astounding to me that purported "wx experts" all over twitter , etc., tried to hype up the NAM and the comeback of the storm when it was clear it was completely out to lunch. This is why I value the people on this site that are far smarter and more knowledgeable than I am to give the real story--which I then promptly take over to Twitter to blast the morons hyping scenarios that have zero chance of transpiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM We really do suck at snow for the most part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM 3 minutes ago, JPL said: From 18 inches of snow just below the DE line to 5 in one run. That takes skill from a model. It’s just too hard for them to produce anything useful more than 30% of the time in snow situations. What they provide though is very exciting and even addictive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:14 PM 42 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Fwiw Boy we’ve come a LONG way since 12z Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:15 PM 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just for prosperity. The run that the NAM completely caved, hard. Epically collapsed. As we all knew it would. It wasn't going to be incremental lol. Kinda stinks when the NAM agrees with other models. It's like Cartman acting nice on Southpark. Who wants to watch that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Tuesday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:16 PM 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We really do suck at snow for the most part Dude I’m telling you this one is gonna surprise us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Tuesday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:17 PM 8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Boy we’ve come a LONG way since 12z Friday! If they moved the zones 100 miles south and added a “you’ll get nothing and like it” zone DC north, it wouldn’t be half bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Dude I’m telling you this one is gonna surprise us. At this point it would be a complete surprise. But at least we are playing with house money. Two solid storms already and one that stuck around for basically an entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Dude I’m telling you this one is gonna surprise us. I’ll buy the drinks at Rockwood if you or I get more than 2 inches, @Wonderdogpick your side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:19 PM 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: probably because - if you assume that the probabilities of all the discrete events of a storm outcome that could occur are approximately uniformly distributed (I get that is probably a stretch), and that there are more discrete events that favor a non-snow outcome vs a snow outcome for us, then the sample space of all possible outcomes are more heavily dominated by non-snow ones. Thus the probability of selecting a non-snow outcome is higher, so if a model is all by itself in predicting one, it's more likely to be correct than a model all by itself predicting a snow-outcome. I realize that there are a ton of assumptions here that are probably not empirically grounded (independent events, etc), but it seems that might be the general logic. From a probabilistic pov this is 100. It’s true of every snow scenario. The number of permutations that produce snow are way less than the ones that don’t. Basically we need a storm to track trough a 100 sq mile box to get snow. The no snow permutations are the whole rest of the planet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Boy we’ve come a LONG way since 12z Friday! Cross country storm and then it dives south of us. That’s what we do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Tuesday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:24 PM Here’s my final forecast. That’s it. I’m not saying another damn thing about it until 0z. ETA—apologies to everyone not in the purple. My crayon ran dry. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Tuesday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:26 PM 16 minutes ago, JPL said: Astounding to me that purported "wx experts" all over twitter , etc., tried to hype up the NAM and the comeback of the storm when it was clear it was completely out to lunch. This is why I value the people on this site that are far smarter and more knowledgeable than I am to give the real story--which I then promptly take over to Twitter to blast the morons hyping scenarios that have zero chance of transpiring. Yeah well half the people on this thread were doing the same so not sure this place is much of a step up. I guess if you're ignoring anything that isn't from a red tagger or like 3-4 other accounts it's fine lol. Posting any NAM output that's over 48hrs needs to be banned on here, not even kidding. These weenies need to have some sense knocked into their head. Like you might as well be posting the results of a coin flip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted Tuesday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:27 PM 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Here’s my final forecast. That’s it. I’m not saying another damn thing about it until 0z. I can’t even get in on the snow in a meme 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Tuesday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:27 PM Any chance the current radar in the midwest is further north than forecasted!?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Tuesday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:28 PM 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Here’s my final forecast. That’s it. I’m not saying another damn thing about it until 0z. ETA—apologies to everyone not in the purple. My crayon ran dry. PSU fringed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted Tuesday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:29 PM 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Here’s my final forecast. That’s it. I’m not saying another damn thing about it until 0z. ETA—apologies to everyone not in the purple. My crayon ran dry. Damn, fringed in Leesburg. Guess I could chase to Sterling... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:30 PM 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Or the antithesis of skill It's coming back at 0z. Mark my words. 3 4 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asidle Posted Tuesday at 10:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:31 PM Ocean City Maryland. Best guess 2-4 inches with potential for much more. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:33 PM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's coming back at 0z. Mark my words. It's coming back at 0z. Mark my words. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPL Posted Tuesday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:33 PM 4 minutes ago, TSG said: Yeah well half the people on this thread were doing the same so not sure this place is much of a step up. I guess if you're ignoring anything that isn't from a red tagger or like 3-4 other accounts it's fine lol. Posting any NAM output that's over 48hrs needs to be banned on here, not even kidding. These weenies need to have some sense knocked into their head. Like you might as well be posting the results of a coin flip.. The difference on here is that you could tell that people were hoping for a miracle, but are smart enough to know that there was little to no chance that it would materialize, whereas on other platforms the weather posters were posting merely for click bait and/or aren't very smart, especially some of the seasoned ones. There is palpable anger on places like twitter right now now that it has become clear it was all an illusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: It's coming back at 0z. Mark my words. FIXED Hail Mary time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Tuesday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:40 PM 20 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll buy the drinks at Rockwood if you or I get more than 2 inches, @Wonderdogpick your side Done. And done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:41 PM Here’s some shit map 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:41 PM 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hail Mary time. Noah Brown Last Gasp Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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