psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:47 PM 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thing is even when the pattern relaxes a touch it still seems to go back to it's early winter track more often than not. I am not saying it will be the only thing I look at. just saying I will not ignore it anymore. And we have been been the beneficiary of it before. Especially 09/10 Problem is nothing is 100%. Not every season has a consistent pattern and there are anomalies even within seasons that do. Examples 2015 the snow jack zone suddenly shifted to us mid Feb after being in New England. 2014 those two snows in March jacked VA after the whole season was jacking MD and southern PA. 2018 I was in the snow hole then got a 14” storm. There is something to persistence but without knowing when it’s about to end or which storms are the anomalies it’s hard to use it effectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can’t find it. It used to be up somewhere on the web. Maybe someone knows who produced it or how to recreate it. Not quite what you're looking for ... but ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Just now, stormtracker said: I mean when absolutely no other model showed what it showed and they all caved to IT. Dec. 2009? While I think the other models had snow too, the NAM the day before was the first to show the beatdown IIRC Boxing Day (but in the other direction lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM All us diehards after we saw the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:52 PM 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean when absolutely no other model showed what it showed and they all caved to IT. It did once in 2007 or 2008. Every single model was showing a 3-6” snow from a little boundary wave at only 24 hours out. And the NAM had nothing. The wave never developed and it shows just some snow showers. NAM was right. There was no wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:53 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: It did once in 2007 or 2008. Every single model was showing a 3-6” snow from a little boundary wave at only 24 hours out. And the NAM had nothing. The wave never developed and it shows just some snow showers. NAM was right. There was no wave. Apparently, it got Dec 2009 right first according to some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:53 PM 4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Not quite what you're looking for ... but ... Is the Nina one is like the opposite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How many times has the NAM scored a coup when it was on it's own? None since it stpped being the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted Tuesday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:55 PM 5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Dec. 2009? While I think the other models had snow too, the NAM the day before was the first to show the beatdown IIRC Boxing Day (but in the other direction lol) Not Dec 17, 2009. That was well modeled for over a week. I followed Howard Bernstein at that time. He was really good at explaining the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:55 PM ETA, MRF, NGM...ah, the good ol' days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:59 PM ETA, MRF, NGM...ah, the good ol' daysI still remember vball4life getting offendedIn Feb 2003 when I said the 12z avn nuked dcWe used to create threads for every model run back then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:59 PM 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How many times has the NAM scored a coup when it was on it's own? February 3rd into 4th 2007 Norlun trough all models has zero Nam nailed a band 25 miles north and south and 90 miles east southeast from Lancaster Pa to Ocean City Nj picking up 4-12”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:01 PM 1 minute ago, Ji said: I still remember vball4life getting offended In Feb 2003 when I said the 12z avn nuked dc We used to create threads for every model run back then lol Classic moment. And we had no subforums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted Tuesday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:01 PM If they are getting rid of the NAM, what short-range models will they use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: February 3rd into 4th 2007 Norlun trough all models has zero Nam nailed a band 25 miles north and south and 90 miles east southeast from Lancaster Pa to Ocean City Nj picking up 4-12”. So about 3 or 4 times in 25 years. We're so back baby! In like 55 minutes, we gonna be popping the champagne corks. Or cyanide. Likely cyanide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: February 3rd into 4th 2007 Norlun trough all models has zero Nam nailed a band 25 miles north and south and 90 miles east southeast from Lancaster Pa to Ocean City Nj picking up 4-12”. So you are saying we should trust in the NAM and plan for our 6” this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Not Dec 17, 2009. That was well modeled for over a week. I followed Howard Bernstein at that time. He was really good at explaining the phasing. I thought that one was a general 2-4/3-6" storm on the models until the NAM suddenly gave us a HECS, but it's been so long I could be confusing it with another event around that time. This was back when I was on Accuweather forums so there's no way for me to check now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM @CAPE maybe the NAM wasn’t alone for this one but maybe about 2-3 years back wasn’t there an assumed way out to sea storm that the NAM had coming back to jack the eastern shore pretty much right from it getting into range? Though to reel one in from 60+ is way different than 24 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:04 PM I guess we'll see if the Nam doubles down, or fng with us. Accuweather.com must just use the Nam for short range, its showing 2-4 for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Tuesday at 07:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:08 PM 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I guess we'll see if the Nam doubles down, or fng with us. Accuweather.com must just use the Nam for short range, its showing 2-4 for mby. Let’s F Go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted Tuesday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:13 PM When is the next dispensation of our newfound weather deity, the NAM who brings snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM Going to be a fun battle, its the Ecmwf, Gfs. Cmc, rgem, Icon, hrdps, ukmet, fv3 hires, Jma, Navgem and 3km Nam vs the 12km Nam, Brime Trucks and CVS. 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to be a fun battle, its the Ecmwf, Gfs. Cmc, rgem, Icon, hrdps, ukmet, fv3 hires, Jma, Navgem and 3km Nam vs the 12km Nam, Brime Trucks and CVS. Also the highway signs on 95 in VA flashing “winter weather on Wednesday, prepare accordingly”….i don’t think that means what they think it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Tuesday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:20 PM 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to be a fun battle, its the Ecmwf, Gfs. Cmc, rgem, Icon, hrdps, ukmet, fv3 hires, Jma, Navgem and 3km Nam vs the 12km Nam, Brime Trucks and CVS. In NAM 32km and 12km we trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Also the highway signs on 95 in VA flashing “winter weather on Wednesday, prepare accordingly”….i don’t think that means what they think it means. And now Justin Berk is hugging the NAM. We're back!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 07:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:24 PM 22 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: If they are getting rid of the NAM, what short-range models will they use? You're just going to have to trust me on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Tuesday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:25 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You're just going to have to trust me on it. I can’t wait for our first Mitchnicking next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM 9 minutes ago, Amped said: Going to be a fun battle, its the Ecmwf, Gfs. Cmc, rgem, Icon, hrdps, ukmet, fv3 hires, Jma, Navgem and 3km Nam vs the 12km Nam, Brime Trucks and CVS. Can we get the HRRR on our side too when it's in range? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 MDZ016-018-VAZ055-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0300Z/ Charles-Calvert-Stafford- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch. * WHERE...In Maryland, Calvert and Charles Counties. In Virginia, Stafford County. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snowfall will fall during a portion of the Wednesday evening commute, with temperatures well below freezing, which could cause roads to become very slick during a period of high traffic volume. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 MDZ017-190315- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0009.250219T1500Z-250220T1500Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0600Z/ St. Marys- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...St. Marys County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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