Benjamn3 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Crazy uncle coming a bit north as well? Haven't even looked and I can tell you...nope 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol I just mouth puked. Thanks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Haven't even looked and I can tell you...nope Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 9 minutes ago, Jandurin said: none of them look very good to me right now One method of improvement would be to shorten the time frame length of prediction The wind events we’ve had twice in last two weeks were perfectly handled because nothing was said until 3 days in advance. The most recent models failure began about 10 days ago with an impulse traversing the nation and supposedly setting off low pressure down south that comes up here. Too speculative that’s DC would get a bomb based on 7/8 days of required perfection as that impulse traverses the nation. Models can’t perform in mid Atlantic for wintry precip that far out and in those circumstances . So cut it out. For some reason NHC does not have such problems. Excuses are that it’s just all too complex. So just eliminate what can’t be done accurately and don’t latch onto impulse Before they even come ashore out west . Wait until 3/4 days out and something is actually existing on this half side of the country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol Is the Blizzard in the room with us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: One method of improvement would be to shorten the time frame length of prediction The wind events we’ve had twice in last two weeks were perfectly handled because nothing was said until 3 days in advance. The most recent models failure began about 10 days ago with an impulse traversing the nation and supposedly setting off low pressure down south that comes up here. Too speculative that’s DC would get a bomb based on 7/8 days of required perfection as that impulse traverses the nation. Models can’t perform in mid Atlantic for wintry precip that far out and in those circumstances . So cut it out. For some reason NHC does not have such problems. Excuses are that it’s just all too complex. So just eliminate what can’t be done accurately and don’t latch onto impulse Before they even come ashore out west . Wait until 3/4 days out and something is actually existing on this half side of the country I think the issue with that is that Hurricanes are one solid unit. They don't have to rely on timing, and surrounding shortwaves to form a storm. I would think that makes things a ton easier for models. And remember, they are using the same models as we use for winter time also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol Right where we want it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 God we're grasping at straws but f it - we have nothing to lose. NAM shift is being caused by the spacing from the energy on the Pac Coat being pulled back. You can see the heights building between the TPV and SW out in Wyoming giving the TPV room to stay more West and deepen a bit further. CMC had a noticeable pullback of the energy out west as well - not really noticing much of a shift on the GFS tho. Regardless - too little too late for most of us, but hope it's on to something for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol What hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Is the Blizzard in the room with us? It's next to big foot and chessie. Great couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, HighStakes said: Right where we want it! Florida and Georgia better get ready! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol don't worry guys - it'll trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, Alfoman said: Regardless - too little too late for most of us, but hope it's on to something for once. It's definitely on something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, pazzo83 said: don't worry guys - it'll trend north. They always do. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's definitely on something. That fluffy white powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What hour? End of run. Always the most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think the issue with that is that Hurricanes are one solid unit. They don't have to rely on timing, and surrounding shortwaves to form a storm. I would think that makes things a ton easier for models. And remember, they are using the same models as we use for winter time also. So hurricanes dont have elements too difficult to handle , They can’t even steer themselves yet their landings and intensities are nearly perfectly predicted . If winter storms are just too much to handle then maybe accept that or implement a more effective time frame like 3-4 days out only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol Oh look, another winter storm for Houston and Pensacola with heavy snow for the same areas getting it Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 euro nudged north with the WAA... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 Just now, Ji said: euro nudged north with the WAA... To Charlotte?. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 If I’m in RIC I don’t hate the 12z runs too much, keeps them in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Watching the radar show good northeast move on precip until about Arkansas and then more due east . 30.30 baro in DC not historically suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol That means SC, GA should prepare. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think the issue with that is that Hurricanes are one solid unit. They don't have to rely on timing, and surrounding shortwaves to form a storm. I would think that makes things a ton easier for models. And remember, they are using the same models as we use for winter time also. They also have access to HCCA and FSSE, which often are the top performers and even sometimes outperform the official forecast track. There was the whole reveal this past fall of the 2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe that keeps the HCCA forecasts, with proprietary techniques from the insurance risk firm, from the public for 5 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro bumped me up from .1 to .2". If it keeps doubling for 7 more runs I can get my 25.6" back. 3 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol Models will always lie lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 mark Marcagarbage dosent think the 12z NAM is north enough. i agree! 3 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodwidp Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anybody look at the long range Gfs? Another NC/VA Blizzard. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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