aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM 10:1 Kuchera Dang even SOUTH Bel Air gets screwed....I feel even worse for people in NORTH Bel Air 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Don't forget that dews are going to be near 0 to start the precipitation tomorrow - it will take time and a considerable amount of precip falling first to saturate that column. Edit: up towards the DC area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM 9 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM 10:1 Kuchera When I asked for model porn, I thought I said a few days ago. This is not model porn from a few days ago. I just got out of a meeting and saw over 30 posts. I figured people were happy with the old stuff. Come to find out the NAM is our Pimp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 3km NAM 10:1 Kuchera Nice jump north. Now let’s do another 50 miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM If you look at the h5 vort you can see what it’s been trying to do over the past few runs. Check at hr24 (valid 12z Wed) and roll back 4/5 runs. Check how the energy is compacting and wanting to spin up more as it comes through the TN valley. Then compare the trend at the same time rolling back on the Euro. The NAM is like a supercharged version of that trend, probably overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Tuesday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:40 PM 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right If I get 18 inches I'll give Ravensrule 25 inches sorry 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:40 PM Just now, baltosquid said: If you look at the h5 vort you can see what it’s been trying to do over the past few runs. Check at hr24 (valid 12z Wed) and roll back 4/5 runs. Check how the energy is compacting and wanting to spin up more as it comes through the TN valley. Then compare the trend at the same time rolling back on the Euro. The NAM is like a supercharged version of that trend, probably overdoing it. If by "probably overdoing it" you mean "correctly predicting the future" I agree. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:41 PM 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Nice jump north. Now let’s do another 50 miles How about 100 instead. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM FV3. I would love to steal a half inch out of this at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM Nam 1 ups DTs snowman. 5"+ in every major city except Bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: How about 100 instead. I'd be cool with 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM In hope of keeping hopes completely unrealistic, the 6z AI did jump north some too from 0z. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: FV3. I would love to steal a half inch out of this at this point. That seems like a jump north as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM @psuhoffmanget back in here and bring home climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM What the NAM is/has been doing is phasing in the NS energy just a bit more and sooner, which pulls the low a little closer to the coast as it tracks ENE, rather than it completely escaping and tracking eastward further south. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM It's just a damn shame we are going to waste this beautiful arctic air. Frustrating AF. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: The NAM is telling us something.. put me out to pasture. i mean its in its 12-24 hour wheel house right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM 6 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: If I get 18 inches I'll give Ravensrule 25 inches sorry Making for a fun forecast I have to make tomorrow for Thursday lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM It was the first model to start spitting out outrageous accumulation amounts in 2016. Everyone laughed about 40 inches out this way. It was right. To be fair, it almost always spits out heavy accumulations. We just happened to get them that time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: It's just a damn shame we are going to waste this beautiful arctic air. Frustrating AF. The beautiful arctic air is why it's missing us. Stupid polar vortex lobe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year. 12 2 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM Just now, Ji said: i mean its in its 12-24 hour wheel house right? Well if it is onto something (and not on something), the better guidance should pick up on it over the next model cycle or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:50 PM 1 minute ago, high risk said: We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year. I dunno. I think it's kinda like a mercy killing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM 2 minutes ago, high risk said: We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year. I like that you said IF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM The JV 12z icon looks a little more north with its qpf field at 18 compared to 06z 24... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM 2 minutes ago, high risk said: We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year. We’ll be fine. Do you believe in model ghosts though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Consistency is not the nams strength. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Just now, yoda said: The JV 12z icon looks a little more north with its qpf field at 18 compared to 06z 24... Definitely more amped. Lets see if it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Tuesday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:53 PM 4 minutes ago, high risk said: We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year. At least it would cut down on the confusion and false hope. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Tuesday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:53 PM 4 minutes ago, high risk said: We should all acknowledge as a group that, even if the NAMs are spectacularly wrong on this event, we’re going to miss them like deceased grandparents when they’re retired next year. They should run it still on some black site just for us. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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