clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM There is no doubt in my mind that the NAM was created by a weenie for weenies. 6 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Nam is such an awful model lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM 12z NAM 10:1 Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM I think the NAM is right with this one... 1 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:27 PM The NAM is telling us something.. put me out to pasture. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM I change my sarcastic post from an hour go to serious: good thing roads are brined in lower Montgomery county! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM NAM would be wrong even if it was in cm's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM Just now, CAPE said: The NAM is telling us something.. put me out to pasture. Certainly there are a million reasons to dismiss the NAM....but should you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam has confluence this 12z run at 27hrs almost exactly as 12z yesterday fwiw. You could see this run coming all the way back to hr. 27. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: I think the NAM is right with this one... I honestly can't remember one time the nam was right. Maybe once in 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Just now, mitchnick said: You could see this run coming all the way back to hr. 27. At least we know what to compare for in the 12z suite to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:30 PM Just now, dailylurker said: I honestly can't remember one time the nam was right. Maybe once in 2014 lol I'm of the opinion that during a full winter season each model is correct at least once. It's the Weather53 theory of forecasting. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:31 PM Not the same ofc, but didn't the late Jan 2010 storm do the same thing really late? Shifted north in the last 24 hours... I think it was supposed to hit south of us and we got decent snows out of it up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Tuesday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:31 PM OMG OMG! 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM The North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather model is generally accurate for weather forecasting, especially for thunderstorms, lake effect, and other convective processes so this is going to be a winter thunderstorm right??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM 3K keeps going with the snow too, very big jump from 6z gets 2 inches to DC on kuchera. This was a very substantial bump NW by both 3k and 12k. Let's see if we can get any other guidance on board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Just now, aldie 22 said: Certainly there are a million reasons to dismiss the NAM....but should you? Not 100 percent. Only because the nest has a similar idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM 3k and HRRR are pretty damn similar to each other. And in line with the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM 3K is probably more realistic but even that is quite the jump north and in juice 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Just now, Lowershoresadness said: The North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather model is generally accurate for weather forecasting, especially for thunderstorms, lake effect, and other convective processes so this is going to be a winter thunderstorm right??? You had me at "generally accurate for weather forecasting" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM 12z 3km NAM precip through 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM 3K keeps going with the snow too, very big jump from 6z gets 2 inches to DC on kuchera. This was a very substantial bump NW by both 3k and 12k. Let's see if we can get any other guidance on board.Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12 hours, it’s that bad. Not to diffuse any excitement is may bring of course lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I honestly can't remember one time the nam was right. Maybe once in 2014 lol It was the first model to start spitting out outrageous accumulation amounts in 2016. Everyone laughed about 40 inches out this way. It was right. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM so... we're back? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Just now, Heisy said: Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12 hours, it’s that bad. Not to diffuse any excitement is may bring of course lol . Lets just see. Guidance has done a terrible job with this event for days now who's to say what the last 24 hours before the event brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM 12z 3km NAM 10:1 Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12 hours, it’s that bad. Not to diffuse any excitement is may bring of course lol . The way all of the models performed with this one early on your statement is spot on for pretty much all of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM The NAM gives Salisbury 18 inches the Euro gives it 2 wonder what will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM Looks at it this way. If every model showed a foot of snow incoming and suddenly the nam drove the storm to Pittsburgh it would have a 95% chance of being correct and we'd all freak. Then every other model would follow. Maybe a reverse bust? Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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