FOLKS Feb 19-20 Debacle

[EastCoast NPZ]

They have brined the shit outta the roads here.  Lol 

[rjvanals]

max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol

[Paleocene]

This thing has just gotten fried run after run

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Thoughts? Shows a 1-2 line for most of you guys up that way. 

Looks good if he moves everything about 400 miles SE

[ers-wxman1]

Synoptically, there is not a single feature that supports a Mid Atlantic event. Everything is in the wrong place. We are hanging on by a needle thread with the fantasy driven NAM. I’m not even sure we will see enough cloud cover to block the Sun.

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

This thing has just gotten fried run after run

At least it's so bad it's entertaining. 

[Warm Nose]

NAM is out to lunch ... as is anyone who is hugging it

[nw baltimore wx]

I am not ashamed to admit that I’m at the table.

[TampaMan]

6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

NAM is out to lunch ... as is anyone who is hugging it

NAM did an amazing job here in Richmond last Tuesday. It’s fair to have a little faith in it. While I’m aware it’s likely a crapshoot this is my last winter in Virginia so I’m holding onto any straw that’s in reach still. 

[WEATHER53]

20 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Synoptically, there is not a single feature that supports a Mid Atlantic event. Everything is in the wrong place. We are hanging on by a needle thread with the fantasy driven NAM. I’m not even sure we will see enough cloud cover to block the Sun.

Do you believe that models are efficient with mid Atlantic winter storms?  You provide great commentary and I bring Ernest and not trying to stir up 

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Synoptically, there is not a single feature that supports a Mid Atlantic event. Everything is in the wrong place. We are hanging on by a needle thread with the fantasy driven NAM. I’m not even sure we will see enough cloud cover to block the Sun.

So you’re saying there’s a chance

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Do you believe that models are efficient with mid Atlantic winter storms?

It’s not the model that’s important, it’s the pattern recognition. Models are just simulating possible solutions, taking into account a variety of features. Understanding what drives a 1-2 foot storm in our area is more important than models spitting out a HECS at day 7. 

[WEATHER53]

15 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It’s not the model that’s important, it’s the pattern recognition. Models are just simulating possible solutions, taking into account a variety of features. Understanding what drives a 1-2 foot storm in our area is more important than models spitting out a HECS at day 7. 

Thank you.  When it shows 20” and two days later zero, what am I supposed to learn and take with me as to their value? 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

We need to move down South. 

I am seriously considering selling my Winchester house and moving to the beach permanently. But I know if I do that it will never snow at the beach again. 

[TampaMan]

2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It’s not the model that’s important, it’s the pattern recognition. Models are just simulating possible solutions, taking into account a variety of features. Understanding what drives a 1-2 foot storm in our area is more important than models spitting out a HECS at day 7. 

I may be wrong but I imagine his questions derives from why yesterday models were showing a MECS 72 hours out to ultimately 0 region wide. It’s just astonishing how quickly it fizzled out. I know it’s computer models but it’s mind boggling how quickly it disappeared. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I may be wrong but I imagine his questions derives from why yesterday models were showing a MECS 72 hours out to ultimately 0 region wide. It’s just astonishing how quickly it fizzled out. I know it’s computer models but it’s mind boggling how quickly it disappeared. 

I knew it was over here on Saturday night Everything was trending the same way. And it wasnt a good way.

[DaleCityDave]

Do other areas, specifically those who receive significant snowfall several times a year, have as much uncertainty with models or is it unique to the Mid Atlantic climate? I’m sure they are living and dying on each run like we are, but for folks in Buffalo, is it more locked in further out or about the same?

 

(Long time lurker, first time poster!)

[StormyClearweather]

We used to have a rule in the Southeast forum when I lived down there: Take the model with the least amount of snow, and then divide the accumulation it shows by the number of days until the event, and set your expectations accordingly. Looks like even using that method on Friday/Saturday would've still overestimated accumulations for most of us this time. But it's a rule I'm sticking to moving forward. 

Okay, I'm lying. Way too much of a weenie for that. 

[TampaMan]

2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

We used to have a rule in the Southeast forum when I lived down there: Take the model with the least amount of snow, and then divide the accumulation it shows by the number of days until the event, and set your expectations accordingly. Looks like even using that method on Friday/Saturday would've still overestimated accumulations for most of us this time. But it's a rule I'm sticking to moving forward. 

Okay, I'm lying. Way too much of a weenie for that. 

Are you the weather girl from “my name is Earl”?

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

max snow on this Euro run was 7 inches lol

Fits analogs. I said it either had to come north or be squashed because that’s what every comp did. I just thought it would be north. 

[StormyClearweather]

3 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

Do other areas, specifically those who receive significant snowfall several times a year, have as much uncertainty with models or is it unique to the Mid Atlantic climate? I’m sure they are living and dying on each run like we are, but for folks in Buffalo, is it more locked in further out or about the same?

 

(Long time lurker, first time poster!)

I think it takes a lot less for Buffalo to get a good snow than it does for us, so in that way, sure. But I think anything that's well outside the norm (such as a major snowfall is for us) has a lot more room for error, because so many things have to come together for it to happen, usually. All Buffalo needs is a cold front with a westerly wind over a non-iced lake, etc. etc. 

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

Do other areas, specifically those who receive significant snowfall several times a year, have as much uncertainty with models or is it unique to the Mid Atlantic climate? I’m sure they are living and dying on each run like we are, but for folks in Buffalo, is it more locked in further out or about the same?

 

(Long time lurker, first time poster!)

It’s a good question and yes right around here does pose problems that all snow Buffalo or no snow Myrtle Beach do not.

However it seems like that could be recognized and programmed in. There is No Doubt they have problems with winter frozen in the mid Atlantic that they do not have in other regions nor with other precip types  and weather event types for the  mid Atlantic 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

I think it takes a lot less for Buffalo to get a good snow than it does for us, so in that way, sure. But I think anything that's well outside the norm (such as a major snowfall is for us) has a lot more room for error, because so many things have to come together for it to happen, usually. All Buffalo needs is a cold front with a westerly wind over a non-iced lake, etc. etc. 

My extended family lives north of Buffalo. The way they are squeezed between the two lakes, their forecasts bust often.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

Do other areas, specifically those who receive significant snowfall several times a year, have as much uncertainty with models or is it unique to the Mid Atlantic climate? I’m sure they are living and dying on each run like we are, but for folks in Buffalo, is it more locked in further out or about the same?

 

(Long time lurker, first time poster!)

Welcome and yes, models bust weenies everywhere. They do no discriminate. 

Places further north bust different because they are often all snow no matter what when cold air is entrenched so it becomes a QPF game only which is still filled with pkenty of uncertainty and frustration. 

Mixed events or areas where mixed events are typical climo, it adds another very large and complicated bust factor. Very very large. Some around here like big busts though. 

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Are you the weather girl from “my name is Earl”?

Good guess. Try Stormy Clearweather from Reba. I grew up on that show, don't judge me. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It’s not the model that’s important, it’s the pattern recognition. Models are just simulating possible solutions, taking into account a variety of features. Understanding what drives a 1-2 foot storm in our area is more important than models spitting out a HECS at day 7. 

When this was a week out the N American H5 was pretty darn close to some of our biggest snows. In the last few days some of the finer details trended the wrong way.  A kicker showed up to flatten the PNA. The ULL trended more positively tilted and the flow in front more suppressive. The SS wave isn’t amplified enough. But isnt it hindsight now to say “we should have seen those changes coming”. Now it’s already a good idea to bet against a HeCs bc they’re so rare. But it’s not like people were excited at one of those times the models spit out some ridiculous storm despite every h5 indicator being all wrong. We have a retrograding west based block. It liked like a nice pna ridge for a time before the kicker came along. 50/50 retreating and a ULL digging west of us. Most of the ingredients were actually there this time but the details went all wrong. I don’t think this was a case of blindly following models when they made no sense. I thought this window had potential before the models showed a storm bc the pattern was pretty good. We don’t get a -5stdv AO often!  

[StormyClearweather]

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

My extended family lives north of Buffalo. The way they are squeezed between the two lakes, their forecasts bust often.

Fair point, lake effect can obviously be tricky to forecast. But I think they're at 50" so far this Winter, so do they care? Maybe the answer is yes, but seems like it'd be similar to us being forecast to getting .5 of rain and only getting some clouds and drizzle. 

[weatherbook]

5 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

Do other areas, specifically those who receive significant snowfall several times a year, have as much uncertainty with models or is it unique to the Mid Atlantic climate? I’m sure they are living and dying on each run like we are, but for folks in Buffalo, is it more locked in further out or about the same?

 

(Long time lurker, first time poster!)

I think it's fairly unique to our region because we have the potential to have big snows, and have a rich history of big snowstorms, but it rarely happens.  Only a handful of HECS in most of our lifetimes.  But people in Buffalo, who receive a lot of lake-effect snow, would be similar to us in D.C. tracking thunderstorms in the spring.  It happens a lot, and if it misses, no big drama.  Most of us don't track rainstorms that underperform or miss us.  On the flip side, my coworker in Ottawa, Canada, just got buried yesterday in snow and he hates snows.  If we had multiple two-foot snowstorms a winter, it would not be as fun for many.

[winter_warlock]

Lmaooo. There us still a thread for this non storm? Lol. People are really grasping for straws lol

[TampaMan]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Lmaooo. There us still a thread for this non storm? Lol. People are really grasping for straws lol

Just because it's not going to storm where you live doesn't mean it won't happen. SEVA does exist haha. (I know no one really gives a crap about that area on this board but it is still technically within this forums area).