North Balti Zen Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: DT 12-16 for richmond appears to be somewhat in danger Kinda enjoying that one particular poster from that area might know the joy of being fringed by being too far north for a system, actually... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM 4 minutes ago, Ji said: DT 12-16 for richmond appears to be somewhat in danger Nothing better than seeing DT crash and burn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Monday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:38 PM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: DT 12-16 for richmond appears to be somewhat in danger Yeah that always seemed a bit much. The trend was not his friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM 16 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood Weak low and ots. Never was thrilled about that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM https://x.com/AvaWBAL/status/1891447717366243549?t=Lfs_GQNcyLgo2AsGhF1tZQ&s=19 @mappy!!! Ava just said "I'm the problem it's me". So you are hereby guilty by association! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:39 PM At least it's cold and windy outside rn. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM I just got to post this again cause it’s so funny. If I was that Stephan dude I would have just deleted my whole ass account lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Monday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:42 PM 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: At least it's cold and windy outside rn. The devils advocate in me says that if it wasn't this cold or windy we'd have a shot on Wednesday night. But it doesn't matter. I'm dying on this hill. I still think it's possible to pull off a miracle few inches of snow, so I'm going down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Just now, nw baltimore wx said: The devils advocate in me says that if it wasn't this cold or windy we'd have a shot on Wednesday night. But it doesn't matter. I'm dying on this hill. I still think it's possible to pull off a miracle, so I'm going down with the ship. Every time it slightly ticks NW it then proceeds to go even further SE. The bullseye is now in South Carolina… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Just now, nw baltimore wx said: The devils advocate in me says that if it wasn't this cold or windy we'd have a shot on Wednesday night. But it doesn't matter. I'm dying on this hill. I still think it's possible to pull off a miracle, so I'm going down with the ship. I still think we can get some sneaky snow showers when the upper level energy swings thru. The coastal is a wrap, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:54 PM 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: I still think we can get some sneaky snow showers when the upper level energy swings thru. The coastal is a wrap, though. im going with the NAM twins with a 100 mile north shift. Good luck to us! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:01 PM 7 minutes ago, Ji said: im going with the NAM twins with a 100 mile north shift. Good luck to us! Im not sleeping on the NAMs just yet, the 12Z did show a slight creep NW with the precip field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted Monday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 PM On the bright side at least it didn’t trend NW and leave us with a cold rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 PM 22 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The devils advocate in me says that if it wasn't this cold or windy we'd have a shot on Wednesday night. But it doesn't matter. I'm dying on this hill. I still think it's possible to pull off a miracle few inches of snow, so I'm going down with the ship. All it really says is a fast progressive flow where not much can develop. Fast and stage right OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:10 PM 14 minutes ago, Ji said: im going with the NAM twins with a 100 mile north shift. Good luck to us! We might get an inverted trough that drops several inches in a thin stripe from Leesburg/Frederick across the Bay and there's nothing we can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 PM 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Both the nam and icon hang the tpv lobe back a little opening the door for more amplification before the TN valley. One thing that can help anyone/everyone is the shortwave to accumulate as much gulf juice as possible before approach. That + a modest adjustment in track can make up some lost ground someone posted that JB comment yesterday “the better h5 gets the worse the surface gets” it got me thinking last night. And it brought be back to what you said about the upper low being “dead”. You were right. Getting a TPV stuck under a block and having a lobe tear off into the upper Midwest isn’t that unusual. It’s how several of our big snows came about. But it remaining totally disconnected from the flow and acting like a kicker instead of flow pinwheel and amplifying force is what is unusual. The detached lobe is acting more like the actual TPV than a typical ULL after detaching from a TPV. We wanted it further away not closer in that case! But I do wonder if there is a tipping point at which if it does get far enough south it has to phase v act like a kicker? That might be our only hope since we can’t get a storm with a PV sitting that close to us and the ULL is acting more like a weak PV than an ULL. This might also be why I didn’t see any in between solutions. Either snows way way south or north. This just might be a rare enough scenario though that I’m not finding any examples because the first such instance since we started keeping reliable upper level data is about to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Monday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:18 PM 1 29 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Monday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:20 PM I might need to PM @dailylurker if he indeed does have some good good stuff. This hobby is exhausting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:28 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:29 PM Just now, Mikeymac5306 said: The ending of that episode really pissed me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted Monday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:29 PM The CVS app says it’s happening 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Monday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:32 PM Well at least we have the CVS-Hi-Res in our favor.... They sell drugs to go along with the model output. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:33 PM 23 minutes ago, weathercoins said: On the bright side at least it didn’t trend NW and leave us with a cold rain Well true, this is one of the worst se trends I can remember at this range. The last 60hrs has just been unabated slide to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM 52 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Every time it slightly ticks NW it then proceeds to go even further SE. The bullseye is now in South Carolina… The bullseye is now Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:39 PM 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: I expected protect the supplier pushback. What the name for that? Starts with an “a” But in the case of the gfs/nam/hrrr the supplier is US! They’re all funded with public dollars. There is no profit. We aren’t defending some corporate overlords. We aren’t taking the same hostility towards these sources because we don’t share your opinion that the shortcomings of the models are some nefarious intentional design. We think the people working on them are doing the best they can and our science just isn’t as advanced as we’d like yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:40 PM 1 hour ago, IronTy said: How do they train the AI? Do they use basically all the historical data since the modeling era? If that's the case you'd think it would be able to analogue the shit out of just about every situation. I don’t know. I’m very curious though. It’s possible this method could do better at reducing errors due to sampling. Possible. I don’t know enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: This winter puts those extreme points to bed. Like you said, overall it is snowing less, however it’s not as bad as some of the panic posts had been suggesting these past few years. Let’s just hope the PDO actually is flipping and we get a Niño probably in 26-27 and score then. That way it’ll shut them up for a couple years. Who was saying it can’t snow at all anymore? Who? You say “those” Who is “those”. It’s been snowing. It snowed last year. It snowed in 2023, granted like 1” lol. We got snow in 2022. It’s been snowing every freaking year. Just less. Who is this mythical “those people” saying it can’t ever snow they you are discrediting. This sounds a lot like a scarecrow argument. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM 11 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Well at least we have the CVS-Hi-Res in our favor.... They sell drugs to go along with the model output. “If our last notification struck a nerve, come in and let’s talk” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:49 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Who was saying it can’t snow at all anymore? Who? You say “those” Who is “those”. It’s been snowing. It snowed last year. It snowed in 2023, granted like 1” lol. We got snow in 2022. It’s been snowing every freaking year. Just less. Who is this mythical “those people” saying it can’t ever snow they you are discrediting. This sounds a lot like a scarecrow argument. The posts I'm referring to were getting the point across via subtext, reading between the lines shows how they were feeling. They were also not saying it'll never snow at all again, they were saying that a 2016 style event may not happen again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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