87storms Posted Monday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:26 PM I'm glad I lived in Bethesda in Jan 2019...got shellacked by that ull (2nd part) of the storm...had at least 8" from that one. Not sure how Frederick fared between 2016 and 2021, but I don't think I've actually received 6" since I moved here. Was looking at previous pics and measured 5.5" from that early Jan 2022 event (so maybe 6 with a snowboard), but less than 6 with compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:26 PM Was in the locker room after my workout this morning and this one teacher guy was bragging to another dude about how they were probably gonna call off local schools due to 15-18" of snow midweek. The other guy said he just heard a dusting to 2". First guy was in disbelief. I kept quiet to myself, I imagine sort of like a former POW does when he overhears two guys bellyaching about having to cut their lawns on Saturday. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: I'm glad I lived in Bethesda in Jan 2019...got shellacked by that ull (2nd part) of the storm...had at least 8" from that one. Not sure how Frederick fared between 2016 and 2021, but I don't think I've actually received 6" since I moved here. Was looking at previous pics and measured 5.5" from that early Jan 2022 event (so maybe 6 with a snowboard), but less than 6 with compaction. You are sadly correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Was in the locker room after my workout this morning and this one teacher guy was bragging to another dude about how they were probably gonna call off local schools due to 15-18" of snow midweek. The other guy said he just heard a dusting to 2". First guy was in disbelief. I kept quiet to myself, I imagine sort of like a former POW does when he overhears two guys bellyaching about having to cut their lawns on Saturday. I have a teacher friend who loaded up on snacks for the storm. Going to tell her to prepare to go to work all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Monday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 PM 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Was in the locker room after my workout this morning and this one teacher guy was bragging to another dude about how they were probably gonna call off local schools due to 15-18" of snow midweek. The other guy said he just heard a dusting to 2". First guy was in disbelief. I kept quiet to myself, I imagine sort of like a former POW does when he overhears two guys bellyaching about having to cut their lawns on Saturday. On Sunday I was talking to the youth director at church. She said we are going to get a big snow on Wednesday. I said I’m not so sure about that. She said it’s guaranteed because Jim Cantore is coming to DC and he’s never wrong. In my mind “you know it’s literally the opposite”, but i just smiled and said “if you say so”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 PM 1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said: I have a teacher friend who loaded up on snacks for the storm. Going to tell her to prepare to go to work all week. They’ve already got a short week anyway with today being holiday and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM It’s a tough fact to face that after two decades Im pulling away from this. Did not even look at 11pm updates last night and already had cut it down to twice a day anyway . Models can’t do their job as far as frozen storms in the mid Atlantic. Some will defend adamantly the supplier as selling good shit or I use it wrongly but is easy to see what that smacks of. Carry on but this broken record of repeat poor performance is going nowhere while you still buy it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: On Sunday I was talking to the youth director at church. She said we are going to get a big snow on Wednesday. I said I’m not so sure about that. She said it’s guaranteed because Jim Cantore is coming to DC and he’s never wrong. In my mind “you know it’s literally the opposite”, but i just smiled and said “if you say so”. On one hand I'm disgusted that she considered Jim Cantore a reliable weather source but on the other hand I'm sort of turned on that she actually knew who Jim Cantore was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Def feeling @TSSN+ posts about bring on spring. If something pops up in the next 7 days I’d happily track it but beyond that oh well. Time for that nice stretch we get down here of 60s 70s 80s until June when the 92 dewpoint 74 stuff hits. Spring time we can troll New England when they get a back door cold front and they’re 36 and fog while we’re out in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:46 PM 11 minutes ago, kristia said: You are sadly correct I think the lack of clippers is a clue as to what's going on upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Def feeling @TSSN+ posts about bring on spring. If something pops up in the next 7 days I’d happily track it but beyond that oh well. Time for that nice stretch we get down here of 60s 70s 80s until June when the 92 dewpoint 74 stuff hits. Spring time we can troll New England when they get a back door cold front and they’re 36 and fog while we’re out in the sun. Today's type of weather is the absolute worst this time of year. Sunny but freezing cold and dry and windy. So uncomfortable outside. The 70's can't get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Monday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:53 PM 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Today's type of weather is the absolute worst this time of year. Sunny but freezing cold and dry and windy. So uncomfortable outside. The 70's can't get here soon enough. Yeah screw this windy cold junk. It’s only fun if there’s snowcover. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM 16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a tough fact to face that after two decades Im pulling away from this. Did not even look at 11pm updates last night and already had cut it down to twice a day anyway . Models can’t do their job as far as frozen storms in the mid Atlantic. Some will defend adamantly the supplier as selling good shit or I use it wrongly but is easy to see what that smacks of. Carry on but this broken record of repeat poor performance is going nowhere while you still buy it . Dude, just my opinion, but maybe you shouldn't read this thread. I've never gotten into this argument because a) it's the internet, and b) you are like a terrier pulling on a rag. You get triggered by this and the medium range thread, so just don't read them. It's passive aggressive to do these drive by posts and then get mad at reactions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM 2 hours ago, Amped said: The gfs and the AI Euro did the best with this. Both took a lot of trash talk from forum members. I’m 99% sure the gfs was simply right because of its typical errors being right in the correct direction for once. But I do wonder if the AI is less prone to errors due to estimating conditions in data sparse regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Monday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:56 PM 29 minutes ago, IronTy said: Was in the locker room after my workout this morning and this one teacher guy was bragging to another dude about how they were probably gonna call off local schools due to 15-18" of snow midweek. The other guy said he just heard a dusting to 2". First guy was in disbelief. I kept quiet to myself, I imagine sort of like a former POW does when he overhears two guys bellyaching about having to cut their lawns on Saturday. 22 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I have a teacher friend who loaded up on snacks for the storm. Going to tell her to prepare to go to work all week. You two are over-estimating the toughness of mid-Atlantic school system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM I’m 99% sure the gfs was simply right because of its typical errors being right in the correct direction for once. But I do wonder if the AI is less prone to errors due to estimating conditions in data sparse regions. I bet if you check the H5 from those runs it was way off (GFS) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted Monday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:58 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m 99% sure the gfs was simply right because of its typical errors being right in the correct direction for once. But I do wonder if the AI is less prone to errors due to estimating conditions in data sparse regions. Isn't this what normal models are supposed to do? Extrapolate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted Monday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:00 PM HOLD ON! Sampling the storm!!! 3 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:06 PM 25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a tough fact to face that after two decades Im pulling away from this. Did not even look at 11pm updates last night and already had cut it down to twice a day anyway . Models can’t do their job as far as frozen storms in the mid Atlantic. Some will defend adamantly the supplier as selling good shit or I use it wrongly but is easy to see what that smacks of. Carry on but this broken record of repeat poor performance is going nowhere while you still buy it . Pulling away? So you're NOT gonna be back next year to remind us about how poor they're doing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Monday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:07 PM 5 minutes ago, paulythegun said: HOLD ON! Sampling the storm!!! Welcome to flavor town mothafuka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:14 PM 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Double plot turn: there was genuine concern that these patterns might have gone extinct post 2016. That talking point popped up a lot especially within the last 5 years. I’m not going to be sucked into defending the most extreme crazy statements “on my side” or a debate. Maybe some took it way too far. I’ve not seen a lot of that. We’ve had really good discussions and by running regression studies it looks like we’ve lost about 20% of our snowfall over the last 100 years and the trend is continuing. That’s it. I’m depressed enough about that reality without listening to some nut that takes it too far and says it’s never gonna snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:15 PM 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m 99% sure the gfs was simply right because of its typical errors being right in the correct direction for once. But I do wonder if the AI is less prone to errors due to estimating conditions in data sparse regions. How do they train the AI? Do they use basically all the historical data since the modeling era? If that's the case you'd think it would be able to analogue the shit out of just about every situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:20 PM I expected protect the supplier pushback. What the name for that? Starts with an “a” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Monday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:22 PM Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:24 PM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not going to be sucked into defending the most extreme crazy statements “on my side” or a debate. Maybe some took it way too far. I’ve not seen a lot of that. We’ve had really good discussions and by running regression studies it looks like we’ve lost about 20% of our snowfall over the last 100 years and the trend is continuing. That’s it. I’m depressed enough about that reality without listening to some nut that takes it too far and says it’s never gonna snow again. This winter puts those extreme points to bed. Like you said, overall it is snowing less, however it’s not as bad as some of the panic posts had been suggesting these past few years. Let’s just hope the PDO actually is flipping and we get a Niño probably in 26-27 and score then. That way it’ll shut them up for a couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Monday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:25 PM Euro says pack it in, unless you in Va beach or the outer banks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:27 PM 5 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Here's a few Euro ensemble runs from when we had the great snow maps with the OP but warning signs when looking under the hood I guess you'd expect to see more tucked members overall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Just now, TSSN+ said: Euro says pack it in, unless you in Va beach or the outer banks lol snow chase to the outer banks...how often is that phrase used. please drive to my house and hit me with a giant mallet like in the cartoons...I would appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Monday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:30 PM 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess you'd expect to see more tucked members overall? Yeah and far less weak systems; the OP was on the far western part of the Ensembles run and much stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Monday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:33 PM 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro says pack it in, unless you in Va beach or the outer banks lol DT 12-16 for richmond appears to be somewhat in danger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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