Shad Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 NAM and GFS are improvements in my neck of the woods (Northern Neck) .....maybe the bleeding has stopped....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I was saying in the other thread about models deserving a poor grade, and if the storms comes back north (unlikely) then that would be an even more damning on the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:21 PM, Shad said: NAM and GFS are improvements in my neck of the woods (Northern Neck) .....maybe the bleeding has stopped....... Expand 25 miles every cycle between now and gametime puts you in the bull and dc gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:20 PM, mappy said: Justin Berk mentioned it this morning. Expand Thanks I also think Millville mentioned it on Saturday or something. I have no expectations with this storm but a bunch of people in the SE are probably sweating bullets right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:22 PM, aldie 22 said: Thanks I also think Millville mentioned it on Saturday or something. I have no expectations with this storm but a bunch of people in the SE are probably sweating bullets right now. Expand I'd love nothing more than complete chaos down the home stretch, honestly less because it gives more people snow and more thanks to the roller coaster. We deserve better than getting YANKED the way we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 2:51 PM, psuhoffman said: the 12z isn't any better for me, I went from 0" to 0" Expand Trending your way I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Both the nam and icon hang the tpv lobe back a little opening the door for more amplification before the TN valley. One thing that can help anyone/everyone is the shortwave to accumulate as much gulf juice as possible before approach. That + a modest adjustment in track can make up some lost ground 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:27 PM, Bob Chill said: Both the nam and icon hang the tpv lobe back a little opening the door for more amplification before the TN valley. One thing that can help anyone/everyone is the shortwave to accumulate as much gulf juice as possible before approach. That + a modest adjustment in track can make up some lost ground Expand I thought the NAM and Icon were rather improved for our specific areas at 12z. Putting those two names into a sentence just feels gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:28 PM, Buddy1987 said: I thought the NAM and Icon were rather improved for our specific areas at 12z. Putting those two names into a sentence just feels gross. Expand So did I. Hope the varsity team shows similar improvement for your backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just saw the 6z gfs and euro...this may have been mentioned already (I have to work today, so I'm not through 5 pages of bs), but seems like they actually ticked further south with the upper level energy which is exactly what we need to have any chance at this storm getting captured. I'm not out yet...like 85% out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:29 PM, DDweatherman said: So did I. Hope the varsity team shows similar improvement for your backyards. Expand In contrast the FV3 and RGEM look like hot trash.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:28 PM, Buddy1987 said: I thought the NAM and Icon were rather improved for our specific areas at 12z. Putting those two names into a sentence just feels gross. Expand It all comes down to the WAA piece for us. I mean sure, coastal enhancement level ups the storm but I'm already prob too far away. We simply want as much juice as possible and the east way to get it is modest amplification while tapping the gulf. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Gfs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Yeaaah this ain't good for the DMV. But enjoy RVA and 757! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Congrats VA Beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I am gonna end up getting more from last nights squall than this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:51 PM, NVAwx said: Yeaaah this ain't good for the DMV. But enjoy RVA and 757! Expand Congrats Lake Ontario snowband. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It's over. The southern stream energy runs out ahead of the ull which doesn't close off south enough. How's next week looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Flipping back through the ensembles one warning sign should have been DC maxed out at 90% showing greater than 1 inch and ~50% of 4 inch plus; the means looked great due to some huge hits but some simulations showed this outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:00 PM, 87storms said: It's over. The southern stream energy runs out ahead of the ull which doesn't close off south enough. How's next week looking? Expand Astronomically slim chance for the 25th, warm up in the first few days of March, possible window between 3/4 and 3/11 but it’s too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:03 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Astronomically slim chance for the 25th, warm up in the first few days of March, possible window between 3/4 and 3/11 but it’s too early to tell. Expand Spring sounds majestic rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:03 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Astronomically slim chance for the 25th, warm up in the first few days of March, possible window between 3/4 and 3/11 but it’s too early to tell. Expand Maybe the models will fail in the opposite direction with the 25th as bad as they have with Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:55 PM, Amped said: Congrats Lake Ontario snowband. Expand Huntsville, AL will get more snow than Boston on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:10 PM, 87storms said: Spring sounds majestic rn. Expand We failed last spring in terms of thunderstorms. I don't recall very many severe events last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 3:54 PM, clskinsfan said: I am gonna end up getting more from last nights squall than this storm. Expand You got snow last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just saw a snow plow drive by. Not sure they got the latest memo 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, Terpeast said: Just saw a snow plow drive by. Not sure they got the latest memo Expand Maybe they were headed south? I doubt VA Beach has too many plows on hand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, Terpeast said: Just saw a snow plow drive by. Not sure they got the latest memo Expand Probably driving to Alabama where the snow belt now is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:18 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: You got snow last night? Expand Just a dusting. Shut down 81 up in Clearbrook this morning for a jack knifed tractor trailer. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, Terpeast said: Just saw a snow plow drive by. Not sure they got the latest memo Expand On 2/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, North Balti Zen said: Probably driving to Alabama where the snow belt now is Expand On 2/17/2025 at 4:22 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Maybe they were headed south? I doubt VA Beach has too many plows on hand Expand It was Plow'n on his way to meet Stormtracker for a beer. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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