LP08 Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:33 PM 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. Also. As I’ve been here a long time and definitely have grown up more. Still stings but I don’t try and bring everyone else down with rapid fire posts of despair. I just go punt furry creatures. ps. Nam better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Assuming NAM is crap? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:33 PM 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Definitely! If we could some how remove those max runs 120 hours out then the pages of disappointing replies to a “lesser degree” hit would make this more enjoyable. It's a bust overall as it stands now so I'm not saying I expected a complete collapse. Burns me too but I'm used to losing 3-6" storms. Comparing this to Mar 2001? Omg wtf. A memorable bust? Idk man. The only way it can feel that way is if you were sure it was going to be big and locked in. Was it ever really close to that lol? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:33 PM Nam gets moderate snow into dc wednesday evening. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 PM There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Don't shoot me, but the... NAM... looks a bit... better... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:35 PM 1 minute ago, Darkstorm said: You may need to lower that bar 6 feet under at this rate. It's going to be pelting ash and brimstone at us at the rate its retreating. Nam is giving you that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:35 PM If this storm indeed comes back it will be the most epic forecasting weekend of all time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:35 PM Just now, Solution Man said: Nam is giving you that now Nah its just siding and shingles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:36 PM NAM had better interaction out west early on with the streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:36 PM 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. Never hold back your alarm bells, Bob! I think it would go a long way in setting more realistic expectations around here--seriously! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Just now, jayyy said: Not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way. No problems posting them or any map. They should all be posted because even fantasy runs are plenty useful in the thought algorithm. Using a 120+ hour map to make your final call with emotions attached and not accepting anything less? That's masochism man! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM 1 minute ago, jayyy said: People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range. Maybe, but I tend to think its also what I said in my previous post...the GFS was right for the wrong reasons. Which happens sometimes. But its more likely its bias was simply playing into the what the eventual sampling errors were going to cause. It got lucky in other words. Things have changed...there was a clear trend over the last 24 hours that flattened the flow ahead of the TPV in the midwest and also a trend towards a more positively tilted trough. However, if you go back 3 days to when all guidance, even the GFS, showed what it did...under that paradigm I think the GFS was just wrong and doing its "I have trouble with complex setups" thing. Had THAT paradigm that existed even on the GFS been correct I think a more amplified storm was the correct solution. The problem was that paradigm was wrong...the flow was going to be a lot more progressive and less amplified. But the GFS in its bias was incorrectly projecting what turned out to be the correct solution for a different reason. Thats why it was starting to move in the wrong direction then had to reverse course suddenly! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 PM 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way. I don’t see a problem with people posting them. The issue is believing them. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Never hold back your alarm bells, Bob! I think it would go a long way in setting more realistic expectations around here--seriously! I did express my concerns in the mid range. Even at the height of the runs I was pretty modest. I mentioned several times that a big cohesive storm had some problems but it was overridden with euro snow maps and intense optimism lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM 2 minutes ago, Shrike said: I had to create an account to state how disappointed I am with all the posters here that are so angry they aren’t getting snow that have shut down the discussion for this storm. In southern Delaware, I’m still forecasted to get 7 inches and would like to follow this on the models. I would argue that Mid Atlantic has nothing to do with south central PA or West Virginia or western maryland, while Delaware is about as mid Atlantic as you can get. There should be a region on this site called mid Appalachia so all the people whose weather is more effected by the Appalachian mountains than the Atlantic Ocean can discuss their unique environmental weather issues while the people who truely reside in the mid Atlantic ( 2 hour drive from the Atlantic Ocean from sandy hook NJ to Cape Hatteras NC) can have a resource to better understand the weather they are facing. If the mods don’t ban the people from last night who were shouting down any people trying to discuss models with claims of bust and no snow, this site will no longer be useful to me and many others. Thanks to all the people who talk about model output. To the rest, you are not the center of the universe. Learn to be a better loser. There’s a southern MD sub forum, which may be better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Someone post the NAM clown. Kuchera has the 6 line like 12 miles from dc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I don’t see a problem with people posting them. The issue is believing them. Agree, it’s part of analysis and trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Just now, nw baltimore wx said: I don’t see a problem with people posting them. The issue is believing them. People have shown they cannot handle it ... believed every time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM 3 minutes ago, Shrike said: I had to create an account to state how disappointed I am with all the posters here that are so angry they aren’t getting snow that have shut down the discussion for this storm. In southern Delaware, I’m still forecasted to get 7 inches and would like to follow this on the models. I would argue that Mid Atlantic has nothing to do with south central PA or West Virginia or western maryland, while Delaware is about as mid Atlantic as you can get. There should be a region on this site called mid Appalachia so all the people whose weather is more effected by the Appalachian mountains than the Atlantic Ocean can discuss their unique environmental weather issues while the people who truely reside in the mid Atlantic ( 2 hour drive from the Atlantic Ocean from sandy hook NJ to Cape Hatteras NC) can have a resource to better understand the weather they are facing. If the mods don’t ban the people from last night who were shouting down any people trying to discuss models with claims of bust and no snow, this site will no longer be useful to me and many others. Thanks to all the people who talk about model output. To the rest, you are not the center of the universe. Learn to be a better loser. Did you say something? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Just now, Bob Chill said: I did express my concerns in the mid range. Even at the height of the runs I was pretty modest. I mentioned several times that a big cohesive storm had some problems but it was overridden with euro snow maps and intense optimism lol I stand corrected, lol And you're right--that buried in a sea of pink Euro snowmaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM NAM says you could throw a rock over 66 standing on dry pavement and the rock will land in 3” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM We got skunked @ 6z, I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Let’s reel this baby back! We got this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Make it stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted Monday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:42 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Did you say something? Yes he did, and it certainly resonated with me here in Salisbury… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM 2 minutes ago, Shrike said: I had to create an account to state how disappointed I am with all the posters here that are so angry they aren’t getting snow that have shut down the discussion for this storm. In southern Delaware, I’m still forecasted to get 7 inches and would like to follow this on the models. I would argue that Mid Atlantic has nothing to do with south central PA or West Virginia or western maryland, while Delaware is about as mid Atlantic as you can get. There should be a region on this site called mid Appalachia so all the people whose weather is more effected by the Appalachian mountains than the Atlantic Ocean can discuss their unique environmental weather issues while the people who truely reside in the mid Atlantic ( 2 hour drive from the Atlantic Ocean from sandy hook NJ to Cape Hatteras NC) can have a resource to better understand the weather they are facing. If the mods don’t ban the people from last night who were shouting down any people trying to discuss models with claims of bust and no snow, this site will no longer be useful to me and many others. Thanks to all the people who talk about model output. To the rest, you are not the center of the universe. Learn to be a better loser. If you want to talk about models, I’m not sure what model you’re looking at that gives you 7”. There’s also an eastern shore/southern MD thread - might be good for you there. The mid-Atlantic isn’t defined by a two hour drive from the Atlantic Ocean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted Monday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:43 PM 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: People not posting clown maps 150+ hours out would go a long way. But what fun would that be? Most on here should be smart enough to not take them for verbatim. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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