Weather Will Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Where we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Where we are... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Such bad modeling woof. See ya next winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 But I was told it was happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I know we’ve had some very smart people say we all fell for the over-amped solutions in the midrange, but this is much more than that. It’s been a while since we’ve had this sort of fail in the 4-5 day range for the models. We went from a MECS at 5 days out to no storm two days later. This was an all-time fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Similar feeling after a week of model watching 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Wow.. This one beat us all down. Sheesh. A whiff to the south and east is not what I expected.. And this is a huge miss south and east. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If I won the lottery tomorrow, I would move to Mammoth and worship snow. I would relax in a lawn chair in the middle of the Woolly Lot during a 9 foot AR and blast 1970s tracks that remind me of snow jebwalks. I'd be the ski resort mascot lmao, always chilling in the 6 inch an hour rates amid strong refreshing Sierra breezes. Them models almost NEVER fail. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I think we knew that the shortwave interaction was touchy, but didn’t foresee a situation where it would be so suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Hopefully there will be one more good snow you guys track then enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 A brutal 48 hours of model watching. Brutal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Winter storm longe range and medium range forecasting is humbling for the pros and mets. Even HM thought this was a go. I am glad I learned from previous disappointments not to get too invested or believe modeling 100%. Also, consensus does not equate to final outcome. Happy to have had a couple winter advisory events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I learned a lot this winter about models. If there's one "off run" by any model when a storm looks likely. Don't ignore it and make fun of it. The euro AI sniffed this out and we laughed at it. I hate to say it but it sure does make sense to go with the model with the worst outcome. It seems right 80% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I dont think ive seen a worse model fail? GFS joined the euro on saturday afternoon and all models agreed on a MECS. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 imma about to kick some cats so if you got cats herd them inside ..........at least until 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBYWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: imma about to kick some cats so if you got cats herd them inside ..........at least until 12z Yea we went from looking like a guaranteed 8-12+ storm to questioning if we see 8-12 flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: I dont think ive seen a worse model fail? GFS joined the euro on saturday afternoon and all models agreed on a MECS. . Oh there’s been worse inside 3 days lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 41 minutes ago, Jebman said: Hopefully there will be one more good snow you guys track then enjoy. Nah bring on spring, we done with this bull crap 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunnfun24 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Accuweather is still calling for 4-8in Imby (Vienna) and upped the chance to 54%. What am I missing? I’m a long way from NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Oh there’s been worse inside 3 days lolIm newish to tracking the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Sunnfun24 said: Accuweather is still calling for 4-8in Imby (Vienna) and upped the chance to 54%. What am I missing? I’m a long way from NC. . They suck, you aren’t missing anything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Im newish to tracking the weather . I've seen warnings up for 12"+ and it failed the day of the storm. I'm 46 and I could tell stories all day of fails at short range. I rather it fail like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Legit question:Why do models always lose digital snow? It never seems to happen in reverse, where we go from no snow to snow. Maybe it is a mid atlantic thing? I guess NC went from no snow to snow?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Haven’t seen enough blame here thrown at Jim Cantore for announcing he’s coming to DC for this one 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, weathercoins said: Haven’t seen enough blame here thrown at Jim Cantore for announcing he’s coming to DC for this one Can’t wait to see shots of smokin cirrus from DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, weathercoins said: Haven’t seen enough blame here thrown at Jim Cantore for announcing he’s coming to DC for this one It truly went downhill right after that was announced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It’s ok guys 12z is going to be huge! For Georgia 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, Sunnfun24 said: Accuweather is still calling for 4-8in Imby (Vienna) and upped the chance to 54%. What am I missing? I’m a long way from NC. Your first problem was trusting AccuWx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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