Wonderdog Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Hard to believe I could get almost 8 inches of snow from that disaster of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 0Z WB 12K NAM, still alive on life support... Snow hole smack between DCA and Baltimore look for that to widen out in time to encompass points NE to MD PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Good news is we don’t have to wait long til the ICON then RGEM then GFS tell us to go to bed before the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Some late interaction happening. It’s all about the s/w to the waste over UT effin us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The absolute best case right now is for a 50 or so mile NW bump and we get into the over 6" accumulation line. Going back to the HECS thing is just off the table now. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: All I’m asking for is a dead cat bounce to a 2-4 snow to get me out of school a 50 mile shift is not much at this range and while that is certainly possible even in this case, it’s doubtful given the strong trends the opposite way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: NAM caved. It may still show 3-6” here but with the trend that amount will dwindle in the next several runs. AmWx: What are we holding onto, PSU? PSU: That there’s some north trends left in this world, Mr. AmWx… and it’s worth fighting for.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The final result wasn’t what we wanted to see obviously, especially if you are looking for a more MECS look. However, this actually shows how delicate this still is at something worthwhile. We really need the disturbance to our northeast to play nice with the TPV over the Upper Midwest. Even without it, we still managed a salvageable storm. I still like this setup for areas within the Hampton Roads up through the Lower Eastern Shore. This one is starting to look pretty solid for those parts. If I was to chase, I’d setup somewhere near Hampton Roads up to OCMD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 where's our "what went wrong" thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Terpeast said: a 50 mile shift is not much at this range and while that is certainly possible even in this case, it’s doubtful given the strong trends the opposite way. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a storm where we just have 6 runs in a row where things go badly for us. Since I’ve only been tracking stuff since 2021 I think this definitely goes down as the worst storm I’ve tracked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I’m not bragging…ok maybe just a little, but I asked the question yesterday of why you all didn’t think this storm would be suppressed south and it was crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Kucera is out of control. That’s like a 17:1 ratio.It’s a colder storm than Jan 30 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a storm where we just have 6 runs in a row where things go badly for us. Since I’ve only been tracking stuff since 2021 I think this definitely goes down as the worst storm I’ve tracked Hahaha we’ve done this a lot of times lol. Although I will say this year it feels like the EPS has busted pretty hard now twice. Once with the storm for last week where it was showing that massive 8+ zone a week out and now once with this one, which featured some fantastic looking EPS runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Is there any reason in particular that the models all have had it bleed the wrong way for 6 runs plus because it’s been tough to never see that reverse I don’t know. Not going to pretend I understand what the error there (either before or now) is caused by. But as it continues to trend this way it’s making my arguments less relevant. They were based on an H5 look from 24 hours ago that’s becoming significantly different if that lobe doesn’t fully detach and close off its own circulation in time. Then its a suppressive instead of an amplifying force. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The absolute best case right now is for a 50 or so mile NW bump and we get into the over 6" accumulation line. Going back to the HECS thing is just off the table now.You think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The absolute best case right now is for a 50 or so mile NW bump and we get into the over 6" accumulation line. Going back to the HECS thing is just off the table now. Anyone seriously looking for a HECS right now is either being deliberately ignorant or a complete fool (or...both!). I still hold out hope that a decent warning-level cold powder storm is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 a 50 mile shift is not much at this range and while that is certainly possible even in this case, it’s doubtful given the strong trends the opposite way. 50 mile shift is very possible To the east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Kucera is out of control. That’s like a 17:1 ratio. Surprisingly Kuchera is only around 14-15:1 for DC area. 0.41” QPF in total. I’d imagine that would be too high with the best ascent further south, but it is damn cold throughout. Probably better than 10:1, but likely not better than 12:1 at any point. Further southeast where ascent is maximized, I could see those 13-15:1 ratios in this one. Man, what could’ve been with this one…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We lost the last model...the one we all knew better than to trust, but needed for cope-ium. Ladies and gents, it's almost time to let it go. We stay until 0z tomm...then it's over What are we all having for our last meal tomorrow night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Ji said: It’s a colder storm than Jan 30 2010? I just went and checked DCA's max/min for Jan. 30, 2010...high of 23, low of 18, 6.4" snow (day before was 27/20). And that 6.4" snow was on 0.33 liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Maybe reverse psychology will work, someone change the name from beat down to let down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 What are we all having for our last meal tomorrow night? I think we will have one more chance this year after everyone has lost interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It was still pretty fun to track the @stormtracker post with the eyes on his avatar was worth it lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Wait, some here actually think those NAM totals are legit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Ji said: I think we will have one more chance this year after everyone has lost interest December 31, 2025.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 December 31, 2025....No that week is always warm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 minutes ago, T. August said: NAM with the potential game winning drive at hr81 with a failed 2-point conversion. Or as my brother used to say about Bernie Kosar (when he was QB of the Browns): a "Kosarian" drive: go 85 yards, chew up 12 minutes on the clock, and have to settle for a field goal!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Tidewater getting all the snow might be a done deal but do they deserve it? Was told last week this was OUR storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said: I’m not bragging…ok maybe just a little, but I asked the question yesterday of why you all didn’t think this storm would be suppressed south and it was crickets. I’ve made like 50 posts answering that over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 0Z ICON is further south. Congrats Charlotte. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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