The Ledge Storm 19-20 Feb

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately

dosent have a bias of being too weak in the southern jet?

[Scraff]

9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You read em like happy Gilmore reads his putts. Gfs is hot ass this run, but 0z is when the trends start. “Fresh data”

Tonight is the “we’re either all in or all out”. Changes need to happen then or we’re smoking nothing by cirrus clouds with a few flurries. Onward and upward. Been a fun winter regardless, and I personally thought it was going to suck. So I’m happy with whatever at this point, but everyone has their own happy threshold. I get it. I do want a blizzard bomb at some point though. 2016 was way too long ago…

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

dosent have a bias of being too weak in the southern jet?

I think that’s old days bias, and at longer leads. I tell you what, if it would focus on the northern piece of energy closer to the base of the h5 like the Nam did, that run would have been drastically better. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Amped said:

Were like 1 or 2 se ticks away from a towel run.

 

I already ran to the store and got my paper towels and toilet paper. I’m good. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately

Interesting that right now it's like there's almost no real low, and it's drier relatively speaking.  But as you say, if we're actually seeing more interaction, hopefully the surface and precip will "respond" in upcoming cycles.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Scraff said:

Tonight is the “we’re either all in or all out”. Changes need to happen then or we’re smoking nothing by cirrus clouds with a few flurries. Onward and upward. Been a fun winter  regardless, and I personally thought it was going to suck. So I’m happy with whatever at this point, but everyone has their own happy threshold. I get it. I do want a blizzard bomb at some point though. 2016 was way too long ago…

I try not to complain sitting at 22” on the season. Definitely feel like it could have/should have been 40” but there were several events I got 1.5, 2, and the 7 I got a couple weeks ago where most here got an inch or less. 

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Welp. 
 

I’m still not throwing it out yet. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

How is it that bad? Lol

I’d expect a low close to the coast with that look. Whatever onto 0z 

We got a very cold airmass with a TPV lobe in the middle of it stuck underneath a block, and it's not playing nicely with the southern stream energy as currently modeled.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately

Are you saying that this was a step in a positive direction in that regard?

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

 

i thought this was the first time this season we have had this pattern

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Are you saying that this was a step in a positive direction in that regard?

I’m not speaking for terp. What I’ll say is it may be, but we can’t go 1 forward 1 back with a really flat flow out front of the s/w, which was one issue with the 18z gfs

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

 

Eric Webb is an asshat, just my opinion. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Welp. 
 

I’m still not throwing it out yet. 

eric webb has alot of family in NC too that he probably promised snow and ice too

[BristowWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I’m not speaking for terp. What I’ll say is it may be, but we can’t go 1 forward 1 back with a really flat flow out front of the s/w, which was one issue with the 18z gfs

Yep if this was 7 days out sure…but time is not on our side.  

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i thought this was the first time this season we have had this pattern

His south bias shows every time he posts but he's probably right.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

if our americanwx forum was stationed in Tidewater---would you be doing your nervous posts like you usually do before a big storm of what can go wrong? or are you giving high5s?

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 
 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 
 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 
 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 
 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

Shhhhh, the snow gods have incredible hearing. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 
 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 
 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

i would actually be okay with snow to rain..better than light snow showers. The problem with looking back at these old storms like 2001,2000,even boxing day is that they were sooooo long ago. Models cant possibility miss these big features 48 hours out right?

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

Do you really believe that this may happen? Two differences between now and march 2001- modeling is better, and the block is so strong. 

I mean, a 30-50 mile shift NW, sure. But 200-300 miles in this situation? I think that is less likely

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 
 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 
 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

You are evil

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We got a very cold airmass with a TPV lobe in the middle of it stuck underneath a block, and it's not playing nicely with the southern stream energy as currently modeled.

Been the problem since the start. Psu has a great point on h5 prog charts and history but I'm not sure we can call it an ULL. It's a closed cyclonic circ but it's dead as a door nail with energy. If the southern wave didn't exist, the closed low would do basically nothing. 

We've had a number of waves over the last 10 years that just couldn't hook up with the northern or polar energy. There was always a dead space of subsidence between the 2. Imo, that dead space is there but there is no action with the closed circulation to have enough contrast to show it. 

My rule of thumb with stream interaction is if it's not helping its hurting. No real middle ground. Seems to me like if they don't play nice together they simply steal from each other. From that perspective, this storm has made a lot of sense to me 

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Do you really believe that this may happen? Two differences between now and march 2001- modeling is better, and the block is so strong. 

I mean, its a damn TPV lobe sitting in the middle of a significantly cold airmass, stuck underneath a block. I honestly don't get that line of thinking. That's just me tho.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Been the problem since the start. Psu has a great point on h5 prog charts and history but I'm not sure we can call it an ULL. It's a closed cyclonic circ but it's dead as a door nail with energy. If the southern wave didn't exist, the closed low would do basically nothing. 

We've had a number of waves over the last 10 years that just couldn't hook up with the northern or polar energy. There was always a dead space of subsidence between the 2. Imo, that dead space is there but there is no action with the closed circulation to have enough contrast to show it. 

My rule of thumb with stream interaction is if it's not helping its hurting. No real middle ground. Seems to me like if they don't play nice together they simply steal from each other. From that perspective, this storm has made a lot of sense to me 

THIS.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, CAPE said:

THIS.

It would really only be a ULL if the streams phased and then it gets energized by the s/s for a pass that would reinforce snow. By itself it’s as useful as @winter_warlock’s ex wife

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Been the problem since the start. Psu has a great point on h5 prog charts and history but I'm not sure we can call it an ULL. It's a closed cyclonic circ but it's dead as a door nail with energy. If the southern wave didn't exist, the closed low would do basically nothing. 

We've had a number of waves over the last 10 years that just couldn't hook up with the northern or polar energy. There was always a dead space of subsidence between the 2. Imo, that dead space is there but there is no action with the closed circulation to have enough contrast to show it. 

My rule of thumb with stream interaction is if it's not helping its hurting. No real middle ground. Seems to me like if they don't play nice together they simply steal from each other. From that perspective, this storm has made a lot of sense to me 

This is my take.  There isn’t any useful interaction going on. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

This is my take.  There isn’t any useful interaction going on. 

We would be better off letting them stay separate and let the tpv space back to the NW and heights to rise out in front of the s/s wave wouldn’t we?

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Awful 

 

Look how far back the light precip gets. That’s because the trough is way way way back to the west. So why is the storm racing off when the energy is back in the Ohio valley. 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look how far back the light precip gets. That’s because the trough is way way way back to the west. So why is the storm racing off when the energy is back in the Ohio valley. 

It’s acting as a kicker

[Bob Chill]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

This is my take.  There isn’t any useful interaction going on. 

Out in mid range, it kept looking to me like a place kicker. Just booting the southern wave out of the way and de-energizing it as it does it. I didnt want to post that it made sense because of the reception it would have had lol. 

Without the lobe hanging around, the WAA piece would easily stream to DMV. Lift is getting robbed in the dead space gap. We dont deal with setups like this enough to have much precedence. A full blown TPV like 2014/15 is real energetic and lights stuff up. This isn't a tpv like that. It's just a cold cutoff ball with potential energy. I know you know this. Just finishing my thoughts