nj2va Posted Sunday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:29 PM ICON was actually really close to a MECS looking at H5. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:31 PM Ukie, RGEM and ICON all look pretty much the same now. Basically no snow north of I66. Now the question becomes is it even worth chasing to OC for this storm? Even that isnt looking so likely at this point. Bring on Spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:31 PM We’re going to do this. Everyone get on board Randy’s shitty bus and get it cranking. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:31 PM 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: ICON was actually really close to a MECS looking at H5. It's pretty close to the NAM h5 at hour 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM Really just need the ULL to capture the souther stream and keep it at the coast longer. Some would call it a slight tug or yank 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM HH is off to a strong start and I’m committed to reeling this one in. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Sunday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:34 PM 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that a dipa with simcoe hops? Yummmmmm Yes! Triple dry hopped with a load of fresh AF Simcoe! Phenomenal beer. Come down and visit soon. Sapwood is special for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Sunday at 09:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:35 PM 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: HH is off to a strong start and I’m committed to reeling this one in. Love that OH beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Sunday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:36 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:38 PM ICON ensembles also with a nice bump back towards the coast with the precip. Gets 0.4 almost 0.5 back to DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM If we think the GFS is just gonna magically shift NW…well I got news for you….yeah gimme a minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ukie, RGEM and ICON all look pretty much the same now. Basically no snow north of I66. Now the question becomes is it even worth chasing to OC for this storm? Even that isnt looking so likely at this point. Bring on Spring. We’re not even close to a solution. Focus on that first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM 17 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Please be the start of a trend! . @mitchnick, the start of a trend is 2 times in one direction. We got this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Just now, BristowWx said: If we think the GFS is just gonna magically shift NW…well I got news for you….yeah gimme a minute Take your time doctor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: ICON ensembles also with a nice bump back towards the coast with the precip. Gets 0.4 almost 0.5 back to DC. And here's the first 24 hours for subtraction purposes (which doesn't have much of an impact) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM I don’t really expect any notable good trends if they’re gonna happen until 0z or after but let’s see what “happy” (subjective) hour has in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM I don't have pretty beer can but I have beautiful flowers. Come on gfs. Here's a lucky flower! 4 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Take your time doctor I thinking….i got nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM 52 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 3k NAM is onboard too Look where all the precip is. It’s focused on the northern wave also 37 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: If the NAM turns out to be right again then all these other models aren't worth shir for Virginia snowstorms and I will just ignore them until NAM is in range. That won’t end well. Every situation is different. The models have strengths and weaknesses. NAM has more weaknesses than most. If it gets this one right it’s probably more a fluke that it tends to over amp and this specific setup favors a further north storm imo. 37 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Since NAM is a mesoscale model, maybe it’s seeing something that globals aren’t seeing wrt gulf moisture and latent heating putting the slp track north. LWX alluded to this in the afternoon AFD. I think it’s more than just that even. The better vorticity, potential fgen, and baroclinicity are all along the arctic boundary to the north. The bigger mid and upper level forcing is there! IMO it makes more sense in every way for that “wave” to be a little more amplified until the coast where they transfer and consolidate. The NAM (I know not the bed partner I wanted here) just looks like what I picture at the surface when I see the h7 and h5 levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:43 PM 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: I don't have pretty beer can but I have beautiful flowers. Come on gfs. Here's a lucky flower! @TSSN+ says he only takes gummies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM @stormtrackerbring us home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: I don't have pretty beer can but I have beautiful flowers. Come on gfs. Here's a lucky flower! Welcome to American Weather. We have your model analysis, trolling, bickering and now drugs! We are a full service forum. 1 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:45 PM 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: @stormtrackerbring us home He’s hibernating. Please try another user 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM 31 minutes ago, deer said: Newb question, why does the NAM show the precip field W-E while the globals mostly show SW-NE? The storm had a duel wave structure. One down along the gulf and the other along the arctic boundary in the TN valley. The NAM is focusing more on the northern wave and then transfers to a coastal. The others are weaker with the northern wave and don’t really get much precip into our area until the southern wave starts to amplify and turn north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted Sunday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:49 PM nam vs euro, all abt the tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look where all the precip is. It’s focused on the northern wave also That won’t end well. Every situation is different. The models have strengths and weaknesses. NAM has more weaknesses than most. If it gets this one right it’s probably more a fluke that it tends to over amp and this specific setup favors a further north storm imo. I think it’s more than just that even. The better vorticity, potential fgen, and baroclinicity are all along the arctic boundary to the north. The bigger mid and upper level forcing is there! IMO it makes more sense in every way for that “wave” to be a little more amplified until the coast where they transfer and consolidate. The NAM (I know not the bed partner I wanted here) just looks like what I picture at the surface when I see the h7 and h5 levels. if our americanwx forum was stationed in Tidewater---would you be doing your nervous posts like you usually do before a big storm of what can go wrong? or are you giving high5s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: In case we forgot… Is that @Ralph Wiggum doing the PBP??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:50 PM Gfs looks flatter out front so ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:51 PM 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs looks flatter out front so ya Nobody likes flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted Sunday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:52 PM last time we were talking about it being flatter out front it ended up being a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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