mitchnick Posted Monday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:06 AM 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: A few days ago someone mentioned February 1989 analog showing up. We were under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 and never sniffed a flake. I think Eastern shore got crushed. Maybe Norfolk too. I vividly remember that storm living in Glen Burnie waiting for my house in Linthicum to be built. Law school friend's wife was an airline attendant and she worked the Sby TO BWI to Raleigh circuit throughout the day on a Dash8. She said they were flying out of BWI heading east to Sby and as soon as they were over the Chesapeake Bay they hit snow. I drove down to Gibson Island on the Chesapeake Bay that day and couldn't see the eastern shore which is otherwise clearly visible. We had flurries in Glen Burnie and that was it. What a nutcracker that storm was and why I remember it so vividly. Of course, my same law school friend who lives in Sby texted me multiple times already today for updates from me because he's a weenie too. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:06 AM 9 minutes ago, HighStakes said: A few days ago someone mentioned February 1989 analog showing up. We were under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 and never sniffed a flake. I think Eastern shore got crushed. Maybe Norfolk too. But again...look at the H5 on that storm...easy to see why that got suppressed and why it was a big SE of us snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted Monday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:07 AM Yeah Va beach’s record snowfall was back in 1892 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Monday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:08 AM You fools told me if I wanted snow, to move north from Norfolk. So I did. And now look at Norfolk jacking 20”. Screw all of you 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:08 AM I get it…I’m a lowly hobbyist…however, one thing I’ve learned is to try to analyze the atmosphere from the top down. That’s why I didn’t get snookered this time. Never really liked the northern stream look with this one as we typically want closed lows to be at our lat or south. Of course, that’s not a rule, but it’s helped me stay cautious at 5 day leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Monday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:09 AM 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: That’s why I was puzzled when someone brought up 2/89 as an analog as if it were a good thing. Who knows what some of these people on here are thinking. Lol. Probably was some guy from the Tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Monday at 12:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:14 AM The slow rebound starts at 0Z FOLKS. Look alive and pick your chins up. 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 12:16 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:16 AM 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: If 18z euro is close Virginia Beach has a run to break their all time snowfall record. Just looked it up it’s around 18” I think. . I think maybe the reason I didn't see any 10" plus snows to hit the Delmarva or Richmond with this pattern...but then I pulled up Elizabeth City and VA Beach storms and the first one I picked in Feb 1980 was a decent match to this pattern... is perhaps if there is a southern wave that stays detached and doesn't phase with a TPV lobe in the upper midwest it will be suppressed but it will slide even further south then guidance was when it was showing us on the NW edge of heavy snow and crushing the Delmarva and southern NJ. Any storm that develops with a TPV there probalby has to have some interaction and come further north because if it phases at all its gonna pull it pretty far north in that flow....OR with no interaction its going to get squashed really far south because of the TPV sitting right there...there is no in between options typically. Because all guidance was showing a hit or a close miss SE when I started this I was not even considering "what if it ends up squashed all the way down to NC" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Monday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:19 AM 1 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:21 AM 6 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The slow rebound starts at 0Z FOLKS. Look alive and pick your chins up. Really putting it on the line aren't you? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:21 AM 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The slow rebound starts at 0Z FOLKS. Look alive and pick your chins up. You start the new thread then pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Monday at 12:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:21 AM Another similar setup that failed to produce was 3/24/06. You can see we had a closed 500mb low in the perfect spot but the confluence was too strong. Don't remember any snow from that setup. Maybe a couple inches in nc/va? https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2006/us0324.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Really putting it on the line aren't you? Lol What’s he got to lose? You gonna go to his house and slap the ole boy around? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Really putting it on the line aren't you? Lol The great ones always do. Let’s yank and tug this baby home. 6” or big bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Just now, ravensrule said: The great ones always do. Let’s yank and tug this baby home. 6” or big bust. That’s happening regardless 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Monday at 12:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:22 AM 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The slow rebound starts at 0Z FOLKS. Look alive and pick your chins up. Are we New England vs Atlanta or KC vs Philly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Monday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:24 AM 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But again...look at the H5 on that storm...easy to see why that got suppressed and why it was a big SE of us snowstorm. Yeah this looks nothing like that. I have never been a fan of this TPV lobe floating over the upper MW and just like it hasn’t resulted in a storm to our south, can you find me an analog where it delivered a big snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Monday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:25 AM 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was in NJ just southeast of Philly. Went to bed the night before expecting a foot of snow. Snowing by morning on every forecast. Woke up and could tell the sun was out from the light through my window shades and heard the wind howling out of the west and just know it was over. Crazy gradient, ACY got close to 20" and nothing for me 15 miles SE of Philly. We did get some flurries later that day on the fringe as it passed by. My top 5 busts in no particular order except for 3/2001 which will always take top billing. I'm not including Boxing Day one because it was clear well in advance it was a fail. 3/2001 2/1989 12/30/2000 Early February 1985. Forecast was for rain changing to snow and 6-10 inches. It did changeover briefly ending up with an inch. There was also a moderate bust in January 1985 also. Superbowl Sunday 1986. Heavy rain was supposed to change to heavy snow. Changeover was brief only leaving putrid coating. Honorable mention: 3/91 Early January 1988 3/1989 1/1984 1/1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Monday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:25 AM 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: Are we New England vs Atlanta or KC vs Philly Shit… 12z runs were Dallas vs Buffalo in the 92 Super Bowl in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:26 AM 17 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: You fools told me if I wanted snow, to move north from Norfolk. So I did. And now look at Norfolk jacking 20”. Screw all of you It's their fault, we should get them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Monday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:26 AM 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You start the new thread then pal Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted Monday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:27 AM We need a January 2000 situation that was supposed to slam Raleigh/richmond and OTS but then we got just about 18” in good ole Ellicott City. I’ve never woken up more excited in my life. I looked at the radar the night before thinking, That really doesn’t look like it’s missing us. Then at 6AM I’m taking a piss and my dad yells to me that it’s blizzarding outside. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Monday at 12:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:28 AM 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The great ones always do. Let’s yank and tug this baby home. 6” or big bust. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted Monday at 12:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:28 AM 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You start the new thread then pal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted Monday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:29 AM 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: My top 5 busts in no particular order except for 3/2001 which will always take top billing. I'm not including Boxing Day one because it was clear well in advance it was a fail. 3/2001 2/1989 12/30/2000 Early February 1985. Forecast was for rain changing to snow and 6-10 inches. It did changeover briefly ending up with an inch. There was also a moderate bust in January 1985 also. Superbowl Sunday 1986. Heavy rain was supposed to change to heavy snow. Changeover was brief only leaving putrid coating. Honorable mention: 3/91 Early January 1988 3/1989 1/1984 1/1985 Lesson here? There are perhaps more busts than storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Monday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:29 AM Let’s shut this shit ass thread down and move it over to the FOLKS thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted Monday at 12:30 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:30 AM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's their fault, we should get them The bridge/tunnel would be kinda fun to drive in a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Monday at 12:32 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:32 AM 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The great ones always do. Let’s yank and tug this baby home. 6” or big bust. If this damned thing comes back from the dead somehow, I propose we call it the "@ravensrule yank and tug storm"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Monday at 12:32 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:32 AM 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: We need a January 2000 situation that was supposed to slam Raleigh/richmond and OTS but then we got just about 18” in good ole Ellicott City. I’ve never woken up more excited in my life. I looked at the radar the night before thinking, That really doesn’t look like it’s missing us. Then at 6AM I’m taking a piss and my dad yells to me that it’s blizzarding outside. The models have come a long ways in 25 years. Especially at 3 day lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 12:36 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:36 AM 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Another similar setup that failed to produce was 3/24/06. You can see we had a closed 500mb low in the perfect spot but the confluence was too strong. Don't remember any snow from that setup. Maybe a couple inches in nc/va? https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2006/us0324.php It's pretty close...but 2 things...I found a LOT of examples of a TPV being there causing nothing to happen, or very little as in a weak arse wave that didn't give anyone major snowfall. What I didn't find was a single example of a cutoff H5 low or TPV near there that gave just southeast of us a big snowstorm. Second...while its close...this marked X makes it make more sense...there is a pretty significant H5 vort rotating around that TPV through the south...we don't have that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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