DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM The stage is set for the ravens rule comeback starting at 0z. Watch the Nam fold then the varsity models come back our way. Since it’s our last ride this winter, should we do the 2nd thread comeback thread for good riddance? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Maybe if we close this thread and open a new one before 0z we can bring this back? 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM How does the WAA look for southern VA area? I don’t have paid access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted Sunday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:30 PM 20 inches in Virginia beach would have be a 100 year snow storm down there. Maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM Well. That was… exhausting. Need to rest and turn off all screens and devices. I’m out. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM Well. That was… exhausting. Need to rest and turn off all screens and devices. I’m out. What did I miss? Besides the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM At this rate, RIC might get fringed too.Couldn’t happen to a better group. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:33 PM Not giving up. It’s the PSU storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM Just now, mikeg0305 said: What did I miss? Besides the storm. From what I've seen from the other posts the biggest rug pull this year. We'll probably be lucky to get a few inches, and the blocking will collapse afterwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Maybe if we close this thread and open a new one before 0z we can bring this back? That’s what I’m thinking, Hail Mary for winters last ride. Who wants it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:34 PM Just now, DDweatherman said: That’s what I’m thinking, Hail Mary for winters last ride. Who wants it? Pass, I've been burned by this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:35 PM Just now, DDweatherman said: That’s what I’m thinking, Hail Mary for winters last ride. Who wants it? Gotta switch to @Ji’s thread 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:36 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Gotta switch to @Ji’s thread I’m in favor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Sunday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:40 PM 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: How does the WAA look for southern VA area? I don’t have paid access. Still locked at 3-6 for us. Wont take much to add a few inches. Increasingly unlikely to lose much. The storm as shown is just a slug of WAA then it shuts off as things get cranking to the east. It won't take much to spread the shield in the dmv area another 50 miles NW either. That's trickier and certainly not something i could guess with confidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted Sunday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:45 PM 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still locked at 3-6 for us. Wont take much to add a few inches. Increasingly unlikely to lose much. The storm as shown is just a slug of WAA then it shuts off as things get cranking to the east. It won't take much to spread the shield in the dmv area another 50 miles NW either. That's trickier and certainly not something i could guess with confidence I’m gonna need a 100-150 miles nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's ovah It was over last night. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:47 PM 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: I’m gonna need a 100-150 miles nw A 50 mile shift would give us 6” and honestly I’ll take that at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 PM Regardless of final outcome this has been a top 3 worst storm tracking experiences. 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:51 PM Is there any chance this storm comes back NW or unlikely and keeps ticking SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM We have warning level snow as close as Waldorf w 72 hours to go; it’s not looking good but we don’t need a huge shift for warning level snow and super minor shift for advisory level. It sucks the MECS fell apart but let’s salvage at least something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Do you really believe that this may happen? Two differences between now and march 2001- modeling is better, and the block is so strong. I mean, a 30-50 mile shift NW, sure. But 200-300 miles in this situation? I think that is less likely no not to that extent. And March 01 isn't a great example anymore, and didn't happen for the same reasons this would come north. Actually it was a much more suppressive setup, also had a crazy block but centered more east and a TPV over Quebec right on top of us...but it had a strong SW rotating around to the west split and drop and models thought that would bomb. And it might have but one part of that mess was there was no cold. The airmass sucked. 850s were to our north. We were relying on dynamic cooling and a coastal pulling down cold air. Had we had the airmass we will have this week we still would have got a 4-8" snow across our area actually. But that wave didn't bomb and eventually it phased in with the actual TPV up over New England and then it bombed which made more sense given the suppressive flow down in the mid atlantic and the lack of a baroclinic boundary to activate the wave initially. 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Been the problem since the start. Psu has a great point on h5 prog charts and history but I'm not sure we can call it an ULL. It's a closed cyclonic circ but it's dead as a door nail with energy. If the southern wave didn't exist, the closed low would do basically nothing. 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I mean, its a damn TPV lobe sitting in the middle of a significantly cold airmass, stuck underneath a block. I honestly don't get that line of thinking. That's just me tho. 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: This is my take. There isn’t any useful interaction going on. I respect all of these points, and yes this is WHY the models are saying what they are...BUT...again back to what I said yesterday, why can't I find a single example even close to this setup that caused a big snowstorm for southeast VA and the Delmarva? I looked at every one I could find and none had a h5 close to this. But Bob you brought up something in your second post just now I had not considered enough...that this is just an extremely anomalous setup and so we haven't ever seen it before in the short time we have upper level data available because we've not had this anomalous a setup enough times for to occur, NOT because this isn't a likely outcome in this setup. Still...there are some examples of a TPV getting stuck under a block and breaking a lobe off into the US. And all the ones I found where it tracked where this one was did one of 3 things...a weaker flat wave slid under and there was no significant snow anywhere...a snowstorm further north... or a 3rd option I had not considered yesterday but with todays further south trends came to me...and some digging confirmed it...I wasn't even looking at VA beach and eastern NC snowstorms...and so I thought...this might be heading that way take a look...and the first one I pulled up, one of eastern NCs biggest snows, and damnit its a really close match to this pattern with a closed TPV lobe over Ohio. There definitely is still more of a H5 extension around that TPV passing south, so it still makes more sense, but its close enough to make me consider...maybe this is heading to a VA beach to NC outter banks snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Sunday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:55 PM 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still locked at 3-6 for us. Wont take much to add a few inches. Increasingly unlikely to lose much. The storm as shown is just a slug of WAA then it shuts off as things get cranking to the east. It won't take much to spread the shield in the dmv area another 50 miles NW either. That's trickier and certainly not something i could guess with confidence Damn.. you look to be in the best position for our area. I worry seeing those lower totals directly to my southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM A few days ago someone mentioned February 1989 analog showing up. We were under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 and never sniffed a flake. I think Eastern shore got crushed. Maybe Norfolk too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM The comeback starts tonight 3 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Is there any chance this storm comes back NW or unlikely and keeps ticking SE? Nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:59 PM Has sampling been done or will that be for 0z runs with system onshore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:02 AM 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: A few days ago someone mentioned February 1989 analog showing up. We were under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 and never sniffed a flake. I think Eastern shore got crushed. Maybe Norfolk too. I was in NJ just southeast of Philly. Went to bed the night before expecting a foot of snow. Snowing by morning on every forecast. Woke up and could tell the sun was out from the light through my window shades and heard the wind howling out of the west and just know it was over. Crazy gradient, ACY got close to 20" and nothing for me 15 miles SE of Philly. We did get some flurries later that day on the fringe as it passed by. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Monday at 12:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:04 AM 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Still locked at 3-6 for us. Wont take much to add a few inches. Increasingly unlikely to lose much. The storm as shown is just a slug of WAA then it shuts off as things get cranking to the east. It won't take much to spread the shield in the dmv area another 50 miles NW either. That's trickier and certainly not something i could guess with confidence Still has that classic Miller B look out this way, just shifted ENE (maybe EENE) instead of NE once low gets cranking off coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 12:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:04 AM I respect all of these points, and yes this is WHY the models are saying what they are...BUT...again back to what I said yesterday, why can't I find a single example even close to this setup that caused a big snowstorm for southeast VA and the Delmarva? I looked at every one I could find and none had a h5 close to this. But Bob you brought up something in your second post just now I had not considered enough...that this is just an extremely anomalous setup and so we haven't ever seen it before in the short time we have upper level data available because we've not had this anomalous a setup enough times for to occur, NOT because this isn't a likely outcome in this setup. Still...there are some examples of a TPV getting stuck under a block and breaking a lobe off into the US. And all the ones I found where it tracked where this one was did one of 3 things...a weaker flat wave slid under and there was no significant snow anywhere...a snowstorm further north...or a 3rd option I had not considered yesterday but with todays further south trends came to me...and some digging confirmed it...I wasn't even looking at VA beach and eastern NC snowstorms...and so I thought...this might be heading that way take a look...and the first one I pulled up, one of eastern NCs biggest snows, and damnit its a really close match to this pattern with a closed TPV lobe over Ohio. There definitely is still more of a H5 extension around that TPV passing south, so it still makes more sense, but its close enough to make me consider...maybe this is heading to a VA beach to NC outter banks snowstorm! If 18z euro is close Virginia Beach has a run to break their all time snowfall record. Just looked it up it’s around 18” I think. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted Monday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:06 AM 8 minutes ago, HighStakes said: A few days ago someone mentioned February 1989 analog showing up. We were under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 and never sniffed a flake. I think Eastern shore got crushed. Maybe Norfolk too. That’s why I was puzzled when someone brought up 2/89 as an analog as if it were a good thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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