aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM There's a good amount of snow close by...50 mile nw shift could mean alot to a good sized group here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:38 PM PSUs debate training won't let him go down without a fight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA. Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks. If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain! Funny you mention 12/20, because it was the Nam that was first to pull that system north putting the jackpot in north central PA from mby giving them 20"+ of snow and me 7" with sleet and some zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Out in mid range, it kept looking to me like a place kicker. Just booting the southern wave out of the way and de-energizing it as it does it. I didnt want to post that it made sense because of the reception it would have had lol. Now perhaps I can only speak for myself...Bob I'd much rather you DO post your opinion like that than not. It's just like last year: you said you saw something early on that didn't scream stable blocking to you but you stayed quiet. I was actually slightly annoyed and was thinking "Maaaann why didn't you say something earlier???" I value your opinion and other knowledgeable posters, and I kinda use those to get an idea on what to expect (and in last year's case I probably would've tempered expectations about said blocking as I don't know how this stuff works as a layman) So if that's where I'm art...I'm sure there are others here would much rather have your opinion than not 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Sunday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:42 PM As I keep looping the 500 charts for both the GFS and Euro, I can’t help but think that there’s really a third party here that is helping to make a mess. These aren’t all distinct pieces, but there’s a short wave dropping down from BC that is more or less aligned with our energy that is about to hit the west coast. As these two pieces of energy rotate together in a longer wave pattern, the northern piece helps to close off the 500 low over ND/MN, while the southern piece (our storm) becomes disconnected and rotates through ahead of the 500 low. Adding to this is the completely unhelpful retrograde of the energy over Quebec which also slows the eastern movement of the northern low and enhances the disconnect. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 10:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:45 PM 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look how far back the light precip gets. That’s because the trough is way way way back to the west. So why is the storm racing off when the energy is back in the Ohio valley. Because the flow is screaming from the west southwest underneath the upper level low directing the coastal east to east-northeast seems most logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: As I keep looping the 500 charts for both the GFS and Euro, I can’t help but think that there’s really a third party here that is helping to make a mess. These aren’t all distinct pieces, but there’s a short wave dropping down from BC that is more or less aligned with our energy that is about to hit the west coast. As these two pieces of energy rotate together in a longer wave pattern, the northern piece helps to close off the 500 low over ND/MN, while the southern piece (our storm) becomes disconnected and rotates through ahead of the 500 low. Adding to this is the completely unhelpful retrograde of the energy over Quebec which also slows the eastern movement of the northern low and enhances the disconnect. That's alot of moving parts...it would be a shame if something were to happen to one of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Sunday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:52 PM Out in mid range, it kept looking to me like a place kicker. Just booting the southern wave out of the way and de-energizing it as it does it. I didnt want to post that it made sense because of the reception it would have had lol. Without the lobe hanging around, the WAA piece would easily stream to DMV. Lift is getting robbed in the dead space gap. We dont deal with setups like this enough to have much precedence. A full blown TPV like 2014/15 is real energetic and lights stuff up. This isn't a tpv like that. It's just a cold cutoff ball with potential energy. I know you know this. Just finishing my thoughts Yea, I’d rather see a cold, dense surface high in the northeast resulting in overrunning than a tpv that doesn’t have much in the way of energy rounding the bend because it’s just gonna push the boundary too far east (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:00 PM How far east will the euro be? Does it stop the bleeding or hit another artery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:01 PM Just now, Chris78 said: How far east will the euro be? Does it stop the bleeding or hit another artery? No clue, but i know by tomorrow night most models will be showing 4-8”. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:03 PM 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: No clue, but i know by tomorrow night most models will be showing 4-8”. For Bumuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:04 PM If the euro comes 50 miles west I’d actually take the NAM seriously as they’ve teamed up in prior miller A setups to trounce the gfs but I’m doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:06 PM 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: For Bumuda? For every place except within 1 mile of your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 11:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:09 PM Who is responsible for this thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: For every place except within 1 mile of your house. I'm used to it this year. No worries 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM 8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: That's alot of moving parts...it would be a shame if something were to happen to one of them The NAM gives us the route that we want, it is just unfortunate that it is the model that we least trust. The top image is the NAM. The vort that swings through is helping to close off the 500 low near Chicago. The bottom is the GFS, where it is closing off the low over Minneapolis. We need the vort to help us bridge, not cut off. 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted Sunday at 11:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:14 PM 12 minutes ago, ravensrule said: No clue, but i know by tomorrow night most models will be showing 4-8”. Your optimism is admirable but don’t let yourself turn into Baghdad Bob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:17 PM 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The NAM gives us the route that we want, it is just unfortunate that it is the model that we least trust. The top image is the NAM. The vort that swings through is helping to close off the 500 low near Chicago. The bottom is the GFS, where it is closing off the low over Minneapolis. We need the vort to help us bridge, not cut off. Thanks, now we know what to watch for in the next runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Sunday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:19 PM Euro is pretty much mood flakes. Horrible trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:19 PM Euro will be tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Thanks, now we know what to watch for in the next runs I should add that the 12z Euro isn't all that far off from the NAM with that vort, but it swings the southern part through faster. So, yeah, unfortunately not as easy as a big bowling ball coming across the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM Euro is pretty much mood flakes. Horrible trend. It’s really just coming into the fold with pretty much every piece of guidance outside the NAM. Was probably to be expected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM Euro looks good for SE VA. Euro says chase to Norfolk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:20 PM At least we don't have to wait to have our dreams smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Sunday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:21 PM Time to announce last rites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:22 PM My cousin lives at Virginia Beach, maybe I’ll take a drive lol . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:23 PM At this rate, RIC might get fringed too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:24 PM At least it’s gonna be really cold 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:25 PM It's ovah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted Sunday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:26 PM How to lose 18 inches of snow in 24 hours: A retrospective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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