Solution Man Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Really hoping something with this current system in our area is confusing the hell out of gfs/euro. . Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 160 souls in here currently. Come now, step to the top of the ledge and join hands as the remainder of the 18z rolls in. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Stop ignoring bad outcomes! You knew here? 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There is a good chance that it is a rug pull. However, how many times have we ignored it when it shows something unfair unfavorable because we said oh it’s the long range nam and it ends up being correct 7 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, AlexD1990 said: You knew here? Not a lot of “knew” individuals in here these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I find cheering for the NAM very odd when it has less overall snow for the region than the Euro has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Correct So the multi million dollar PS5 models are confused but the IntelliVision 1983 model has the right idea. I’m good with this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 10:1 slr because the Kuchera is always wrong. eta: though I doubt this is right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But also, and I'm being serious and also hopecasting: Aren't the mesoscale models. better and picking up changes better in the short range? Or is that just something we say to each to cope? Absolutely. The problem is that the mesoscale models really weren’t designed for beyond the day 2 period. That doesn’t mean that they’re useless; you just have to use extreme caution. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Ji said: There is a good chance that it is a rug pull. However, how many times have we ignored it when it shows something unfair unfavorable because we said oh it’s the long range nam and it ends up being correct Honestly? Not that many noteworthy occasions lol. The storms it did are usually shit storms where we were expecting a middling level storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: There is a good chance that it is a rug pull. However, how many times have we ignored it when it shows something unfair unfavorable because we said oh it’s the long range nam and it ends up being correct Fair point actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: I find cheering for the NAM very odd when it has less overall snow for the region than the Euro has. Wtf are you talking about lmao 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, BristowWx said: So the multi million dollar PS5 models are confused but the IntelliVision 1983 model has the right idea. I’m good with this I’m good, @Wonderdogyou good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: There is a good chance that it is a rug pull. However, how many times have we ignored it when it shows something unfair unfavorable because we said oh it’s the long range nam and it ends up being correct Or we now know what the north side of envelope is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM12km aside, NAM Nest was pretty solid by the end of its run. Keep an eye to the northeast over the North Atlantic. That right there is going to be a huge player in latitudinal push for moisture transport, and it may open the door for better synoptic scale dynamics along the east coast. Everything is about spacing and the flow becoming more meridional upstream and all the different features play a role in it. At hr 60, you can see the differences at 5H and the handling of the trailing jet energy off New England. Also, take a look at the 5H ULL over the Upper Midwest. There’s feedback from what is going on downstream to how that will evolve. I don’t think we are over with interesting runs yet. Someone is going to blink. The NAM is most likely to blink when assessing historical trends, but it has led the way on occasion, so don’t put it past it just yet, especially the Nest version. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: So the multi million dollar PS5 models are confused but the IntelliVision 1983 model has the right idea. I’m good with this I remember whan the ETA upgraded to the NAM and we thought it was some cutting edge sorcery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nam 3k looks like Nam at 60 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If everyone recalls, the January 20 event that screwed the metros were originally showing the storm to form on the first front and not the trailing Arctic front. JB insisted it would form on the Arctic front and it did, which caused it to be warm in areas to the Metros and burbs south and east. If this follows suit, we could have a winner with the Nams. In that case it was only the Canadians that showed it on the Arctic front for days before. They then started to give in but not to the extent of other modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Solution Man said: I’m good, @Wonderdogyou good He’s fine. Probably drunk like the rest of us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So the multi million dollar PS5 models are confused but the IntelliVision 1983 model has the right idea. I’m good with this The fact that the IntelliVision still turns on is a nod to its build quality. Hehe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, T. August said: Wtf are you talking about lmao NAM has 13 inches in DC. Euro had 8 and such totals down in Virginia and in Maryland. NAm completely cuts off Richmond and gives Maryland just a bit more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: In case we forgot… The Euro followed on this one tbf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm very good Solution Man especially when you're the popular man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm very good Solution Man especially when you're the popular man! Play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Maybe Bastardi and PSU will gain redemption on this storm. In case anybody has forgotten, JB did call Sandy before other mets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok. All we have to do is hope that the NAM has led the way over vastly superior medium range models! Should be easily livin You got NAMd really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nice disco here from LWX- By the middle of the week, attention will turn to a potential winter storm approaching from the south and west. Recent trends have been for more separation between a southern stream disturbance (currently located off the Pacific Northwest Coast), and a northern stream disturbance (primarily composed of a shortwave currently moving from east to west along the northern periphery of an upper low currently centered over Manitoba and Saskatchewan). Greater spacing between these features would likely result in less interaction, and later phasing between these two disturbances, leading to a more southern storm track. This trend toward a more suppressed, southern track system started yesterday, continued with the 00z runs last night, and is even more prevalent within incoming 12z guidance. This trend toward a more southern track is leading to a trend down in snowfall totals across much of the area. While it still appears likely that most of the area will see at least some snowfall, a scenario where the northern half of the forecast area sees very little snowfall (nearly all in association with the northern stream system) is a distinct possibility now. That isn`t to say that the threat for a larger storm has gone away, it`s just that probabilities for that occurring have decreased greatly. At the moment, it appears as though southern Maryland currently stands the greatest chance for higher snowfall totals, as they`d be located closer to the southern storm track and eventual deepening coastal low. While the trend has been downward with snowfall totals, that doesn`t mean that there can`t be further shifts in either direction as we move closer to the event. The pattern across North America, as well as the North Pacific and North Atlantic is very complex at the moment, with numerous interactions between different disturbances yet to occur. This lends itself to some lingering uncertainty. Systems with lots of convection in the southern stream (as this one will) also commonly trend northward at short lead times. The upper level pattern to our northeast at the time of the system will likely be very blocked, so that potential for a northward shift back is somewhat limited, but still exists. So while the clear trend at the moment is very much toward a more southern track and lower snow totals, there is still time for things to change. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'm very good Solution Man especially when you're the popular man! I guess “I’m Just a Gigolo”….I’ll show myself out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I say it every time. The NAM has a time and place. We just block out all the times it leads the way because it’s more fun to treat it like the stepchild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Newb question, why does the NAM show the precip field W-E while the globals mostly show SW-NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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